Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars: Monday Night Showdown
Game Details: Monday, October 6, 2025
Spread: Chiefs -3.5 | Total: 45.5 (MyBookie)
The Setup
The Chiefs started their season in concerning fashion at 0-2, but have since rattled off consecutive wins against the Giants and a statement performance at home against the Ravens last week. Meanwhile, Jacksonville sits at 3-1 and is coming off an impressive road win at San Francisco.
Breaking Down the Numbers
What makes this matchup particularly interesting is how evenly matched these squads appear statistically. Both teams show remarkably similar yards per point and yards per play metrics, suggesting this could be a tightly contested affair despite Kansas City’s road favorite status.
The Chiefs have found their rhythm after those early struggles, but that 2-2 record tells a story of a team still working through issues. Jacksonville’s strong start includes quality performances on both sides of the ball.
The Jaguars’ Case
Jacksonville’s defense has been the story early in the season. The unit features edge rusher Travon Walker, who continues to develop into a disruptive force. The Jaguars have shown they can pressure opposing quarterbacks and make life difficult even for elite signal-callers. That road win in San Francisco demonstrated their ability to execute in prime-time situations against quality opponents.
The home field advantage cannot be overstated here. Jacksonville playing under the lights on Monday night in front of their crowd presents a different challenge than Kansas City faced in their recent home stand against Baltimore.
Chiefs’ Recent Form
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense have certainly improved from those opening two weeks. The back-to-back wins show they’re capable of returning to championship form. However, winning on the road in the NFL is never easy, especially against a team playing with confidence like these Jaguars.
The Chiefs’ 2-2 against-the-spread record this season suggests the betting market may still be giving them too much credit based on reputation rather than current performance.
The Betting Angle
Our model projects a 3-point Chiefs advantage, which aligns closely with the current spread. However, several factors point toward Jacksonville covering that 3.5-point number:
- The Jaguars are 3-1 straight up and gaining momentum
- Home field on Monday night provides an extra edge
- Statistical metrics show these teams are nearly even
- Kansas City is still working through early season inconsistencies
- Jacksonville has proven they can win big games (see: San Francisco)
The Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5
The Jaguars at home on Monday night and playing elite defense, should keep this game within a field goal. A straight-up upset is certainly in play.
The Chiefs may be finding their form, but they’re still not the dominant force we’ve seen in previous seasons. Jacksonville has the defensive personnel to disrupt Kansas City’s offensive rhythm, and their home crowd will be electric for this prime-time matchup.
Take the points with the home dog. This game could go either way.