Lions at Rams: Take the Points with Detroit in NFC West Showdown
The Los Angeles Rams welcome the Detroit Lions to SoFi Stadium this Sunday for a crucial Week 15 matchup with significant playoff implications. The Rams enter as 6-point favorites at MyBookie with a total of 55, and while Los Angeles has been impressive lately, we’re backing the Lions to keep this one close.
Tale of Two Teams
The Rams sit at 10-3 and are tied for first in the NFC West with Seattle, essentially locked into a playoff spot. They’ve won seven of their last eight games and are coming off a dominant 45-17 road win over Arizona where they outgained the Cardinals 530-314 in total yards. The performance showcased their offensive firepower as they put up their highest point total of the season.
Detroit finds itself in a much different situation at 8-5, currently third in the NFC North behind Chicago and Green Bay. The Lions are fighting for their playoff lives with roughly a 40-60% chance of making the postseason. While this isn’t quite a must-win game, it’s awfully close. A 3-1 finish over their final four games would give Detroit a 75-98% chance of reaching the playoffs, with their Week 18 matchup against the Bears looming large.
Statistical Breakdown Points to a Shootout
Both teams boast elite offenses with similar yards per play differentials that rank among the league’s best. The Rams sit at +1.2 yards per play differential, ranking second in the NFL, while the Lions are right behind at +1.0, good for third. Where we see a significant difference is on the defensive side of the ball.
Los Angeles ranks first in the NFL in defensive yards per point allowed at 18, showcasing their bend-but-don’t-break approach. The Lions, meanwhile, rank 17th in this category at 13.9 yards per point allowed defensively. This defensive disparity explains why the Rams are favored by nearly a touchdown at home.
Our model projects a 35-20 win for Los Angeles, acknowledging the Rams’ superiority on both sides of the ball when considering the complete picture.
The Case for Detroit Plus the Points
Despite the statistical edges favoring Los Angeles, several factors support taking the Lions with the points:
Urgency Factor: There’s no question which team needs this game more. The Lions are essentially playing for their playoff lives while the Rams are comfortable in their position. Los Angeles can afford a letdown; Detroit cannot. That desperation can be worth points in a game like this.
Offensive Firepower: When you have an offense as explosive as Detroit’s, you’re never truly out of any game. The Lions are averaging 30.3 points per game, leading the NFL in scoring. They’ve shown they can put up points in bunches, having scored 44 or more points three times this season.
Recent History: This matchup has developed into quite the rivalry since the quarterbacks switched teams. Both Stafford and Goff will be facing their former squads, adding an emotional element that could keep things close.
Road Dog Pattern: Detroit has shown resilience as road underdogs this season. The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last eight games as underdogs following a home win, a trend that applies here after their 44-30 win over Dallas last Thursday.
Home Field Advantage for LA
The Rams have been nearly unbeatable at SoFi Stadium this season, posting a 5-1 record with their only loss coming in overtime to San Francisco in Week 5. They’ve covered the spread in nine of their last 10 December games at home, and have won 13 straight as moderate favorites (3.5 to 7 points).
Los Angeles bounced back impressively from their shocking loss at Carolina two weeks ago. Stafford rebounded from a rough performance against the Panthers with three touchdown passes and no interceptions against Arizona. The veteran quarterback leads the NFL with 35 touchdown passes through 13 games.
Detroit’s Inconsistency
The Lions have alternated wins and losses over their last nine games, showing an inability to build momentum. They’ve been limited to 17 or fewer points in two of their past three road games, including a season-low nine points at Philadelphia in Week 11.
After taking control against Dallas with a 27-9 third-quarter lead, Detroit allowed the Cowboys to close within 30-27 before finally pulling away. The Lions were actually outgained 417-408 in total yards and went just 3-8 on third downs, relying on a 3-0 turnover advantage to secure the win.
The Bottom Line
While the Rams are the better team and deserve to be favored at home, six points feels like too many in what should be a competitive game between two high-powered offenses. Detroit’s playoff desperation combined with their ability to score points quickly makes them a live underdog.
The Lions have the offensive weapons to hang with anyone in the league. Goff has thrown for 3,334 yards and 26 touchdowns this season and should be motivated facing his former team. With their season essentially on the line, expect Detroit to bring their best effort.
Additionally, the under has cashed in each of the last two meetings between these teams, with scores of 24-23 and 26-20. However, given the offensive firepower on display and the high total already set at 55, we’re focusing on the side rather than the total.
Our Pick: Detroit Lions +6
The Rams may ultimately win this game, but the Lions have shown they can compete with anyone offensively. In a game where both teams should move the ball effectively, taking the points with the team that needs it more makes sense. Detroit keeps this within a field goal.