Patriots at Buccaneers Week 10 Preview: Laying the Points with Tampa Bay
When the schedules came out, no one anticipated that this Week 10 matchup between the Bucs and Pats would feature 2 of the NFL’s best. But here we are, and at this point of the season, that is exactly what we have. The 6-2 Bucs hosting the 7-2 Patriots. Life goes on without Tom Brady in both New England and Tampa.
The Numbers Tell the Story
Here are how the teams compare statistically:
| Statistic | New England Patriots | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-2 | 6-2 |
| Offense | ||
| Points per Game (PPG) | 26.3 (7th in NFL) | 24.6 (15th in NFL) |
| Total Yards per Game | 350.7 (12th in NFL) | 323.0 (17th in NFL) |
| Passing Yards per Game | 238.3 (9th in NFL) | 224.9 (13th in NFL) |
| Rushing Yards per Game | 112.3 (17th in NFL) | 98.1 (24th in NFL) |
| Defense | ||
| Points Allowed per Game | 18.8 (5th in NFL) | 22.3 (13th in NFL) |
| Total Yards Allowed per Game | 299.0 (9th in NFL) | 321.4 (15th in NFL) |
| Rushing Yards Allowed per Game | 75.4 (1st in NFL) | 92.6 (7th in NFL) |
| Turnover Differential | 0 (14th in NFL) | +7 (4th in NFL) |
Form Guide Favors Both Teams
The Patriots arrive at Raymond James Stadium riding an impressive six-game win streak, including a narrow 24-23 home win against Atlanta in their most recent outing. Drake Maye has been exceptional for New England, completing 74.1% of his passes for 2,285 yards and 17 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions. The Patriots have shown remarkable road form with a perfect 4-0 record away from home this season.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay enters fresh off their bye week following a dominant 23-3 road win against New Orleans. Baker Mayfield has managed the offense efficiently with 1,919 passing yards and 13 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions while completing 63.9% of his attempts. The Buccaneers hold a solid 2-1 home record but have been more impressive on the road at 4-1.
Betting Trends Point to Tampa Bay
The historical trends heavily favor the home team in this matchup. The Buccaneers have won each of their seven previous November home games against AFC East opponents. Additionally, Tampa Bay has covered the spread in each of their last four Week 10 games against AFC opponents.
For the Patriots, some concerning patterns emerge. New England has lost eight of their last nine games before a Division game, and the Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as underdogs before a Division game. With the Jets looming in Week 11, this situational spot could prove problematic.
However, New England counters with their own impressive streaks. The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last five road games, while the Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five home games.
The Turnover Battle
One key factor that could determine this game’s outcome is Tampa Bay’s superior turnover differential. The Buccaneers sit at +7 (4th in NFL) compared to New England’s even differential. This ability to create extra possessions while protecting the football has been crucial to Tampa Bay’s success this season.
Offensive Balance and Defensive Strengths
The Patriots have showcased impressive offensive depth with 13 different players recording at least one touchdown this season – the most in the NFL heading into Week 10. This balanced attack has helped them average 26.3 points per game, good for 7th in the league.
Tampa Bay has shown similar offensive distribution, with seven different players recording 50+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL. The Buccaneers have also demonstrated remarkable resilience, recording the equal-most wins when trailing after the third quarter this season (4).
Defensively, New England’s run defense has been elite, allowing just 75.4 rushing yards per game to lead the NFL. This could force Tampa Bay into more passing situations, where the Buccaneers have been less explosive this season.
Recent History and Totals
The Patriots are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Buccaneers, having won both visits in Tampa. Interestingly, all of their four meetings have gone under the total, which could be significant for totals bettors considering the 48.5-point line.
The under trend extends further for both teams in certain situations. Seven of the Buccaneers’ last eight November games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line, while each of the Patriots’ last four road games against NFC South opponents have gone UNDER.
The Pick
Our model predicts a 29-17 Bucs win, so we’ll lay the -2.5 and take the Bucs here to win at home.
While New England’s six-game win streak is impressive and they’ve been excellent on the road, several factors favor Tampa Bay in this spot. The Buccaneers’ dominance in November home games against AFC East teams, combined with their superior turnover differential and the Patriots’ poor record before divisional games, creates value on the home favorite.
Additionally, Tampa Bay coming off their bye week provides extra preparation time against a Patriots team that just played a physical game against Atlanta. The Buccaneers’ ability to win games when trailing shows the mental toughness needed to cover as a short favorite.
The Bucs -2.5 represents solid value for a home team that has owned this specific situational spot historically. Look for Tampa Bay to control the game with their opportunistic defense and balanced offensive attack, covering the spread in a game that likely stays under the total based on recent head-to-head history.