Raiders at Patriots Week 1 Preview: New Era Showdown at Gillette Stadium

Patriots Favored by 2.5, Total Set at 43.5 for Sunday’s Season Opener

The 2025 NFL season kicks off with the Las Vegas Raiders visiting the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, September 7th at 1:00 PM ET. Both franchises enter fresh chapters with new head coaches, creating an interesting dynamic for this season-opening game.

Tale of Two Rebuilds

The New England Patriots will begin the Mike Vrabel era this Sunday when they host the Las Vegas Raiders in the season-opener at Gillette Stadium, while the Las Vegas Raiders are looking to start the Pete Carroll era on the right foot. Both teams struggled to identical 4-13 records last season, finishing last in their respective divisions.

The coaching matchups present fascinating storylines. Vrabel, who won 2021 Coach of the Year honors with Tennessee, returns to New England where he starred as a linebacker during the Patriots’ championship runs. Meanwhile, the 73-year-old Carroll brings his championship pedigree from Seattle to Vegas, tasked with turning around a franchise that has made the playoffs just twice since 2003.

Quarterback Situations Drive the Narrative

Patriots second-year quarterback Drake Maye represents the centerpiece of New England’s rebuild. In 13 games and 12 starts, Maye completed 66.6% of passes for 2,276 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. The organization invested heavily in supporting Maye this offseason, adding veteran receiver Stefon Diggs and bolstering the offensive line.

For Las Vegas, the acquisition of veteran Geno Smith from Seattle represents a significant upgrade at the position. Smith provides the stability and experience this young Raiders roster desperately needs. Chip Kelly is the offensive coordinator, and he’ll have Geno Smith at quarterback, creating an intriguing offensive system led by Kelly’s innovative playcalling.

Key Matchup: Patriots Defense vs. Raiders Running Game

The Patriots defense under Vrabel’s influence should see marked improvement from last season’s struggles. Vrabel has an excellent collection of veterans and up-and-coming talents at his disposal, and it’s impossible to imagine the Pats’ pass rush struggling as badly as it did last season with him at the helm.

Las Vegas counters with rookie sensation Ashton Jeanty, the Heisman Trophy finalist selected sixth overall in the NFL Draft. Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty is brought in to balance things out and take pressure off the passing game. The Patriots will need to contain Jeanty while also accounting for the veteran leadership of Smith distributing the ball to playmakers like Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers.

Historical Context Favors New England

The Patriots are 3-0 against the Raiders on opening day with a 17-14 win at Oakland in 1964, a 20-6 win vs. Oakland in 1971 and a 30-20 win vs. Oakland in 2005. More importantly, the Raiders are one of seven NFL teams that have never won a game at Gillette Stadium, as the Patriots are 3-0 against the Raiders in games played within the confines of Gillette Stadium.

The home field advantage becomes even more pronounced when considering the Raiders are 3-13 straight up in their last 16 road games, while Patriots are 6-2 straight up in their last eight games vs. Raiders.

Betting Analysis: Patriots and Under Present Value

Side Recommendation: Patriots -2.5 (-118)

Multiple factors support backing New England in this spot. New England head coach Mike Vrabel consistently had his teams outperform the sum of their parts during his tenure with the Tennessee Titans, and I’m a believer in quarterback Drake Maye taking a step forward with an improved supporting cast.

The Patriots’ home field advantage cannot be overstated, particularly against a Raiders team that has struggled mightily on the road. Landing the Patriots Under the key number of 3.0 is a bonus, too, as getting the favorite at less than a field goal provides excellent value.

Las Vegas faces the challenge of integrating new systems under Carroll and Kelly while playing in a hostile environment. Vegas will likely need time to piece it all together on offense, making this road opener particularly daunting.

Total Recommendation: Under 43.5 (-115)

The under presents strong value based on several key factors. Even with the optimism for the New England Patriots taking a step forward on offense this year, this is likely to be another work-in-progress attack. Both teams ranked poorly in scoring last season, with the Raiders and Patriots, respectively, ranked 27th and 30th in converting red-zone trips into touchdowns and 29th and 30th in points per game last year.

The defensive improvements expected under Vrabel’s leadership, combined with the Raiders’ need to establish chemistry in their new offensive system, point toward a lower-scoring affair. Weather conditions and the typical conservative nature of season openers further support the under.

Expert Consensus and Simulation Models

Professional handicappers show mixed opinions on the spread but generally favor New England. Early simulations from Dimers’ trusted NFL model favor the Patriots as the most likely winner of this matchup, with straight up win probabilities: Raiders 41%, Patriots 59%.

The betting trends provide additional context: the UNDER is 5-1 in the Raiders’ last six games, while patriots are 1-5 ATS the last six times they’ve been set as favorites. However, the latter trend may reflect the Patriots’ previous coaching regime rather than Vrabel’s impact.

Final Prediction

Expect a methodical, defensive-minded game as both teams work through early-season growing pains. The Patriots’ home field advantage and Vrabel’s immediate cultural impact should provide enough edge to secure a narrow victory. The total stays well under the number as both offenses struggle with execution and red zone efficiency.

Best Bets:

• Patriots -2.5 (-118)
• Under 43.5 (-115)

Predicted Final Score: Patriots 20, Raiders 17