Ravens-Bills Divisional Round Preview and Prediction
The Baltimore Ravens and the Buffalo Bills will face off in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs on Sunday, January 19th at 6:30 PM EST at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. This game will be televised on CBS and Paramount+. This highly anticipated matchup features two of the AFC’s top teams, with the Ravens entering the game as slight road favorites of -1 with a total of 51.5 (betonline)
Team Overviews
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens finished the regular season with a 12-5 record, securing first place in the AFC North and the third seed in the AFC. They boast a strong offense led by quarterback Lamar Jackson, who had a career-high in passing yards (4,172) and passing touchdowns (41) this season . Key offensive players include tight end Mark Andrews and running back J.K. Dobbins. On defense, the Ravens have been particularly strong in recent weeks, ranking third in opponent EPA per Play and second in opponent Success Rate since Week 10 .
The Ravens are coming off a dominant 28-14 Wild Card Round victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, where they showcased their offensive firepower and defensive prowess . They have won their last five games and are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games . One of the key factors in the Ravens’ success has been their potent rushing attack. In their Week 4 win over the Bills, they rushed for 271 yards and averaged 8.0 yards per carry . With a strong offensive line and a dynamic quarterback who can also make plays with his legs, the Ravens’ rushing attack will be a significant challenge for the Bills’ defense.
The Bills had an impressive regular season, finishing with a 13-4 record and claiming the top spot in the AFC East. They are led by quarterback Josh Allen, a dual-threat player who has established himself as one of the league’s best. Allen threw for 4,029 yards and 32 touchdowns this season while also rushing for 614 yards and 10 touchdowns . Wide receiver Stefon Diggs remains a primary target in the passing game, consistently making big plays and stretching the field.
The Bills secured their place in the Divisional Round with a convincing 31-7 win over the Denver Broncos in the Wild Card Round . They have won nine of their last thirteen games and are 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games . Despite facing low expectations due to roster turnover, the Bills exceeded predictions and achieved their best record since the introduction of the 17-game season in 2021 . They also set several team records this season, including the fewest sacks allowed (14) in the NFL and the best turnover margin (+24) in the league since 2012 . Furthermore, the Bills have won 11 straight games at home, the longest active streak in the NFL .
Recent Performance
| Team | Last 3 Games | Outcome | Points Scored | Points Allowed | Total Yards | Opponent Total Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | W 31-2 vs. Texans, W 35-10 vs. Browns, W 28-14 vs. Steelers | 3-0 | 94 | 26 | 1333 | 721 |
| Bills | W 40-14 vs. Jets, L 16-23 vs. Patriots, W 31-7 vs. Broncos | 2-1 | 87 | 44 | 1078 | 814 |
The Ravens have been on a roll, winning their last three games by a significant margin. They have averaged 31.3 points per game while allowing only 8.7 points per game during this stretch. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, and their defense has been stifling opponents. The Bills, on the other hand, have been less consistent, with a loss to the Patriots sandwiched between two wins. While their offense has shown flashes of explosiveness, they have also struggled at times, particularly in their loss to the Patriots.
Key Injuries
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have a few key players listed on their injury report. Wide receiver Zay Flowers (knee) has been ruled out for the game . Flowers is a dynamic playmaker who can stretch the field, so his absence will be a blow to the Ravens’ offense. Wide receiver Deonte Harty (knee) is questionable . Harty is a valuable contributor in the slot and on special teams, so his availability will be something to monitor. Running back Justice Hill (concussion/illness) is also questionable . Hill provides depth in the backfield, and his absence could put more pressure on J.K. Dobbins.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have several players listed on their injury report, including running back Ray Davis (concussion) and cornerback Taron Johnson (head injury) . Davis is a key backup to James Cook, and his absence could limit the Bills’ rushing attack. Johnson is a starting cornerback who plays a crucial role in their defense, so his potential absence could be a significant concern for the Bills.
Notable Trends and Storylines
- Rematch from Week 4: The Ravens and Bills met earlier this season in Week 4, with the Ravens securing a convincing 35-10 victory in Baltimore. However, both teams have evolved since then, and the Bills will be looking for revenge in this playoff matchup. In that Week 4 game, the Ravens effectively defended the Bills by clogging up the middle of the field and forcing Josh Allen to make plays in traffic . However, the Bills have added wide receiver Amari Cooper since then, who provides a deep threat on the outside and could challenge the Ravens’ defense.
- Defensive Strength: The Ravens’ defense has been exceptional in recent weeks, while the Bills’ defense has struggled. This could be a key factor in determining the outcome of the game. The Ravens’ defense has been particularly effective against the run, which could be crucial in slowing down the Bills’ dynamic rushing attack.
- Quarterback Duel: The game features two of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the NFL in Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Both players are capable of making game-changing plays with both their arms and their legs. While both quarterbacks have established themselves as elite players, their styles differ significantly. Jackson is known for his exceptional speed and elusiveness, while Allen is a more powerful runner with a strong arm. This matchup will be a fascinating clash of styles.
- Home-Field Advantage: The Bills will have the advantage of playing at home in front of their passionate fans. Highmark Stadium is known for its raucous atmosphere, which could give the Bills an edge. The Bills have been particularly strong at home this season, boasting an 11-game winning streak at Highmark Stadium .
- Improved Quarterbacks: Both Allen and Jackson have significantly improved their games since their last playoff meeting in 2020. Allen has become more efficient and taken better care of the football, while Jackson has proven he can win games with his arm as well as his legs.
- Impact of Injuries in Week 4: It’s worth noting that the Bills were without starting linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard and nickel corner Taron Johnson in their Week 4 loss to the Ravens. This significantly impacted their defense and allowed the Ravens to run wild.
Prediction
The Ravens’ defense is likely to make things difficult for Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense. While the Bills are capable of putting up points, the Ravens’ offense should be able to do enough to secure a narrow victory and cover the spread.
The Ravens’ strong rushing attack could be a key factor in this game, as they were able to exploit the Bills’ defense on the ground in their Week 4 matchup. If the Ravens can establish the run and control the clock, they will be in a good position to win this game.
Note that the Ravens yards per play differential of +1.6 is #1 in the NFL while the Bills are a full yard behing at +0.5. That’s significant for this all important metric.
Finally, our model, when using only data from the last 7 games has the Ravens on top by a score of 27-25.