Seahawks at Jaguars: Week 6 Betting Analysis
Game Details
Date: Sunday, October 12, 2025
Time: 1:00 PM EDT
Venue: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
TV: FOX
Spread: Jaguars -1
Total: 47.5
The Matchup
The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1) welcome the Seattle Seahawks (3-2) to EverBank Stadium in what shapes up as a closely contested Week 6 showdown. Fresh off their Monday Night Football win over the Kansas City Chiefs, the Jaguars face a quick turnaround while riding a three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, Seattle looks to bounce back from a narrow 38-35 loss to Tampa Bay.
Team Form and Performance
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1)
The Jaguars have emerged as one of the early surprises this season, sitting atop the AFC South alongside Indianapolis at 4-1. Their recent 31-28 win over Kansas City marked their first Monday Night Football win since 2011, showcasing their ability to compete with elite competition. Head Coach Liam Coen has brought fresh energy to the franchise, though he acknowledged the team hasn’t played a complete 60-minute game yet.
Trevor Lawrence completed 18 of 25 passes for 221 yards against the Chiefs, posting a 95.6 passer rating despite throwing an interception. The ground game has been a strength, averaging 137 yards per contest with Travis Etienne Jr. leading the charge with 443 rushing yards through five games.
Defensively, Jacksonville ranks eighth in the league, allowing just 20 points per game. Linebacker Devin Lloyd leads the NFL with four interceptions heading into Week 6, while Foyesade Oluokun paces the team with 44 tackles. The defense has forced 14 turnovers already this season, with six different players recording interceptions.
Seattle Seahawks (3-2)
The Seahawks enter this contest having won eight of their last 12 games overall, though they’re coming off a shootout loss in Tampa. Sam Darnold has been efficient, completing 73.1% of his passes for 1,246 yards with nine touchdowns against three interceptions. The receiving corps has been productive, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba becoming the only player in the league to record 500 receiving yards with fewer than 40 receptions.
Kenneth Walker III anchors the rushing attack with 330 yards and three touchdowns, helping Seattle average 113 yards per game on the ground. However, defensive concerns loom large. The Seahawks rank 26th against the pass, surrendering 239.8 yards per game through the air with opponents completing 70.3% of their attempts.
Key Trends and Statistics
Favorable Jacksonville Trends:
- Home teams have won each of the last six meetings between these teams
- Seattle has lost six of their last seven games played in Florida
- Jacksonville has covered the spread in their last four home games
- The Jaguars have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last nine Sunday games
- Following wins, Jacksonville games have gone OVER the total nine straight times
Favorable Seattle Trends:
- The Seahawks have won their last nine Sunday road games
- Seattle has covered in their last seven Sunday games as road underdogs
- Jacksonville has lost their last three games as favorites following a win
- The Jaguars have failed to cover in nine of their last 10 home games when playing with a rest disadvantage
Betting Analysis
The short week presents a significant challenge for Jacksonville after their emotional Monday night win. Playing on just five days rest typically favors the road team, particularly when the home side is coming off a marquee win. The Jaguars’ trend of failing to cover with a rest disadvantage (1-9 ATS in their last 10) raises red flags for backing them as favorites.
Seattle’s road prowess cannot be ignored. Their nine-game winning streak in Sunday road games demonstrates their ability to perform away from home. Additionally, their success as road underdogs (7-0 ATS in their last seven Sunday games) suggests they thrive in this specific situation.
The defensive matchup favors Jacksonville significantly. The Jaguars’ bend-but-don’t-break approach has limited opponents to 20 points per game, while Seattle’s pass defense vulnerabilities could be exploited by Lawrence and the Jacksonville passing attack. Brian Thomas Jr. has found the end zone in four of the Jaguars’ last five Sunday home games, presenting another weapon for Lawrence to utilize.
The Pick
While Jacksonville deserves respect for their strong start, the situational factors heavily favor Seattle. The combination of the short week, potential letdown spot after beating Kansas City, and Seattle’s excellent road record creates value on the Seahawks getting points.
The total presents an interesting opportunity as well. Recent Jacksonville games following wins have consistently gone over, with nine straight hitting the over. Combined with Seattle’s defensive struggles and both teams’ offensive capabilities, the over 47.5 warrants consideration.
Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks +1 (-110)
Secondary Play: Over 47.5 Total Points (-110)
The Seahawks’ ability to perform on the road, coupled with Jacksonville’s poor ATS record with a rest disadvantage, makes taking the point with Seattle the sharp play. Look for this game to be decided by a field goal either way, with the potential for a higher-scoring affair than the total suggests.