Chargers Set to Cover Against Road-Weary Steelers in Week 10

Sunday Night Football | November 9, 2025 | SoFi Stadium
Line: Chargers -3 | Total: 44.5 at BetOnline

The Sunday Night Football spotlight falls on two AFC playoff contenders who may not be quite as strong as their records suggest. The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) sit atop the weak AFC North, while the Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) hold second place in the AFC West behind the Broncos, with the 5-4 Chiefs breathing down their necks.

The Numbers Tell a Different Story

The Chargers boast a yards per play differential of +0.5, while the Steelers lag behind at -0.4. That gap translates to roughly an 8-point advantage for Los Angeles adding in home field field, making the current 3-point spread look like solid value for Chargers backers.

Pittsburgh enters this matchup in a potential letdown spot after their 27-20 home win over Indianapolis last week. The Steelers were actually outgained 368-225 in total yards despite forcing six turnovers, went just 4-12 on third downs, and now face a cross-country trip to the West Coast. History hasn’t been kind to the Steelers in similar situations – they’ve dropped five of their last six road games against AFC opponents on winning streaks.

Scheduling Pressure Mounts

The importance of this game becomes magnified when examining both teams’ upcoming schedules. For the Chargers, a brutal December stretch includes back-to-back games against the Chiefs and Eagles, making this contest essentially a must-win to maintain playoff positioning. There’s simply no room for error in the ultra-competitive AFC.

Trends Favor the Home Team

The betting trends strongly support Los Angeles in this spot:

• The Chargers have won six straight games as favorites against AFC North opponents
• They’re 5-1 ATS in their last six games as home favorites against AFC teams
• The Steelers have failed to cover in five of their last six road games as underdogs against AFC opponents
• Los Angeles has won the first half in their last 11 November home games as favorites against AFC teams

While Pittsburgh does have an impressive 8-0 ATS record in their last eight games played on the West Coast, the current form and situational factors suggest that streak could be in jeopardy.

Offensive Challenges on Both Sides

Justin Herbert has been productive this season with 2,390 passing yards and 18 touchdowns, though he’s taken nearly 30 sacks behind a banged-up offensive line. The loss of left tackle Joe Alt to an ankle injury certainly hurts, but Herbert has shown the ability to get the ball out quickly when needed.

On the other side, Aaron Rodgers has kept the Steelers’ offense functional with 1,692 yards and 17 touchdowns while taking just 15 sacks. However, Pittsburgh averages only 288.1 total yards per game – ranking them near the bottom of the league – and their 87.3 rushing yards per game won’t be enough to control this game.

Defensive Edge

Both defenses have shown vulnerability this season. The Steelers allow 24.4 points per game (21st in the NFL) and have been particularly susceptible through the air, giving up 278.3 passing yards per contest. The Chargers’ defense ranks 12th in scoring defense at 21.4 points allowed, providing them with a clear advantage on that side of the ball.

Pittsburgh’s pass rush, led by T.J. Watt and company, has recorded impressive sack totals this season. However, they’ll be facing a quarterback in Herbert who has experience dealing with pressure and weapons like Ladd McConkey (47 receptions, 524 yards) to exploit the Steelers’ vulnerable secondary.

The Total Play

While our primary focus remains on the Chargers covering the spread, the total warrants consideration. Both teams have been trending toward higher-scoring games recently – the Chargers have gone over in four straight contests, while the Steelers have hit the over in five of their last eight games.

Final Analysis

The Steelers face multiple challenges in this matchup: a cross-country trip following an emotional home win, inferior yards per play metrics, and a defense that has struggled against the pass. Meanwhile, the Chargers understand the critical nature of this game given their upcoming schedule and have dominated AFC North opponents as favorites.

The line movement from an opening of -3.5 down to -3 has created additional value on the Chargers. With Pittsburgh potentially in a letdown spot and Los Angeles desperate for a win before their brutal December slate, everything points toward the home team covering the field goal spread.

The Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -3

The combination of situational factors, statistical advantages, and historical trends makes this an excellent spot to back the Chargers at home. Look for Los Angeles to control the game with their superior offensive efficiency and take advantage of a Steelers team that may not have enough left in the tank after last week’s emotional win.