Tampa Bay at Buffalo: Model Predicts Upset as Bucs Take the Points
Sunday, November 16, 2025 | 1:00 PM EST | Highmark Stadium
Line: Buffalo -6 | Total: 48 | BetOnline
Two 6-3 teams meet in Orchard Park with playoff positioning on the line, though their paths to January football look significantly different. While Tampa Bay faces what appears to be a manageable schedule after this two-game gauntlet against Buffalo and the Rams, the Bills must navigate a more difficult remaining slate that includes the Texans, Steelers, Patriots, and Eagles.
The Matchup
This edition of the Bills doesn’t carry the same intimidation factor as recent years. They’ve built their identity around the league’s top-ranked rushing attack, but that strength gets neutralized by a glaring weakness – their 30th-ranked run defense that’s hemorrhaging yards on the ground. It’s a vulnerability Tampa Bay can exploit, even with their 25th-ranked rushing offense.
Looking at yards per point efficiency, both teams hover around league average (14.3). Buffalo posts 14.0 on offense and 14.5 on defense, while Tampa Bay comes in at 13.4 offensively (slightly above average) and 14.6 defensively. These middle-of-the-pack numbers suggest a close, competitive game.
Statistical Deep Dive
The Bills’ ground game dominance meets its match against a Tampa Bay front seven anchored by Vita Vea and Lavonte David. James Cook has been exceptional, recording 87+ rushing yards in each of Buffalo’s last four games against NFC opponents and finding the end zone in seven of their last eight home games as favorites. But the Buccaneers have proven resilient against the run when healthy.
Through the air, Josh Allen faces a vulnerable Tampa Bay secondary that ranks 20th in passing yards allowed. Allen has thrived in November games against NFC opponents, recording 253+ passing yards and 23+ completions in each of his last six such matchups. However, Buffalo’s passing attack showed inconsistency in their Week 10 loss to Miami, struggling through three quarters before mounting a failed comeback attempt.
Baker Mayfield counters with an improving aerial attack that’s found rhythm despite rotating weapons. His connection with rookie Emeka Egbuka has been particularly productive, and he’s recorded 256+ passing yards in four of Tampa Bay’s last five Sunday games. Against Buffalo’s third-ranked pass defense, Mayfield will need to be sharp, but the Bills have dealt with significant injuries in their secondary.
Betting Trends That Matter
The trends paint an interesting picture for this matchup. Tampa Bay has won each of their last three Sunday games as road underdogs and covered the spread in each of their last seven games following a loss – a situation that applies here after their Week 10 defeat to New England.
Buffalo’s home dominance shows cracks when examined closely. They’ve lost three of their last four games as favorites on the East Coast and failed to cover in five of their last six in that scenario. The underdog has also won the first quarter in each of Buffalo’s last two games, suggesting slow starts that Tampa Bay can capitalize on.
For totals bettors, five of Buffalo’s last six Week 11 games have gone OVER, while each of Tampa Bay’s last four games as road underdogs following a loss have also exceeded the total.
The Model’s Take
Our predictive model sees this game differently than the market, projecting a 27-23 upset win for Tampa Bay. The six-point spread offers significant value for a game that profiles as another NFL nail-biter decided in the final minutes.
The Buccaneers’ easier remaining schedule provides extra motivation here. With games against Arizona, New Orleans, Atlanta, Miami, and Carolina (twice) after their two-game test against Buffalo and the Rams, stealing a road win in Orchard Park could be the difference between a wild card spot and winning the division. Their season may ultimately come down to that Week 18 matchup with the Panthers on January 4th, but securing this upset would provide crucial breathing room.
Buffalo needs this game to maintain pace in the competitive AFC, but their remaining schedule – featuring playoff contenders like Houston, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia – leaves little margin for error. The pressure falls squarely on the home team’s shoulders.
The Play
So many NFL games week in and week out come down to the last possession, and based on what these two teams bring to the table, there’s no reason to expect anything different here. Both teams possess the offensive firepower to score late, and neither defense has been dominant enough to close games out early.
The market has overadjusted to Buffalo’s home-field advantage and undervalued Tampa Bay’s resilience as underdogs. Mayfield has excelled following losses, completing 23+ passes in five of the Buccaneers’ last six games in that scenario. Meanwhile, Rachaad White has found the end zone in each of Tampa Bay’s last four games as underdogs following a loss, providing the complementary scoring threat needed to keep pace.
We’ll gladly take the six points with a Tampa Bay team that has every reason to fight for an outright win. The Buccaneers’ ability to bounce back from defeats, combined with Buffalo’s struggles as home favorites, creates a perfect storm for an upset. In what projects as a game won or lost on the final drive, getting nearly a touchdown with the road team offers tremendous value.
The Pick: Tampa Bay +6