Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos Prediction | NFL Divisional Playoff Picks

Game: Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026 – 4:30 PM EST
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
TV: CBS
Odds: Broncos -1.5 | Total: 46 (at MyBookie)

The divisional round of the NFL playoffs kicks off Saturday afternoon with what figures to be one of the tighter games of the weekend. The top-seeded Denver Broncos host the Buffalo Bills in a matchup that pits one of the league’s most fearless quarterbacks against one of its stingiest defenses.

Josh Allen: The Ultimate Competitor

Josh Allen entered this year’s playoffs with what we felt was not one of his strongest Bills teams. In fact, we thought Jacksonville would knock them out of the Wild Card round. But as it turned out, the roster limitations didn’t matter because Allen simply refused to let his team lose.

The difference in that game was Allen himself. He completed 28 of 35 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown while adding 33 rushing yards and two more scores on the ground. He played through multiple injuries sustained early in the contest, yet still managed to carry his team when it mattered most.

We’ve always maintained that if we had to pick one quarterback to go into battle with, it would be Josh Allen. Not because he’s the most accurate passer or the quarterback with the highest efficiency ratings, but because of his sheer will to win and his ability to put the team on his back and carry them.

This marks Allen’s seventh consecutive season with the Bills in the playoffs. He’s advanced to the divisional round five times and reached the AFC Championship twice, falling short both times. His road playoff record stood at 0-4 before last week’s win in Jacksonville (now 1-4), and he now faces yet another road test against a formidable Denver defense.

Breaking Down the Numbers

The Bills finished the regular season at 12-5 and posted impressive offensive numbers. Buffalo led the entire NFL in rushing, averaging 159.6 yards per game on the ground. Their passing attack ranked 15th at 219.1 yards per game, but the overall offensive efficiency placed them fourth in total offense at 376.3 yards per contest and fourth in scoring at 28.3 points per game.

Defensively, the Bills possess the league’s best pass defense, surrendering just 156.9 yards per game through the air. However, their run defense ranks near the bottom of the league at 28th, allowing 136.2 rushing yards per game. This vulnerability could be an issue against a Denver rushing attack that has improved down the stretch behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines.

The Broncos captured the AFC West title with a stellar 14-3 record and earned the conference’s top seed. Denver’s defense is elite, ranking third in points allowed at 18.3 per game and third in total defense. Their pass defense sits seventh in the league, allowing just 187.2 yards per game. On offense, Denver’s line was the top-ranked unit in the NFL, allowing a league-low six sacks all season.

Yards Per Point Analysis

But where a team ranks statistically doesn’t always tell the whole story, which is why we always like to examine yards per point numbers to get a quick snapshot of a team’s efficiency.

Both teams have been consistent with their yards per point numbers whether we look at season-to-date figures or the last seven games. Over the final seven games, the Bills posted an offensive yards per point number of 12.8 and a defensive number of 13.5. Simply put, very good offensively and below average defensively.

The Broncos’ numbers over the same stretch are 14.9 on offense and 14.6 on defense. Those marks are just mediocre — actually below average on both sides of the ball. For perspective, the best combined numbers among playoff teams belong to Seattle with 12.2 on offense and 18.6 on defense.

The yards per play differential is nearly identical, with the Bills at +0.6 and the Broncos at +0.8. Using these metrics to establish a line, Denver would project as roughly a 3-point favorite. So statistically, there’s a slight edge for the Broncos.

Our Model’s Take

It should come as no surprise that our model sees this game similarly, regardless of the time frame parameters used. Using full-season data, our model projects Broncos 23, Bills 21. Using only the last seven games, our model produces the exact same result: Broncos 23, Bills 21. And using only data from the last four games, our model says Broncos 17, Bills 14.

Statistically, Denver comes out as a narrow favorite. But this game will ultimately come down to the intangibles.

The Allen Factor

Let’s examine Allen’s playoff road losses more closely. Three of those defeats came against Kansas City in Arrowhead Stadium. Of those losses to the Chiefs, one came in overtime and another was a three-point game. His loss to Houston in the 2019-2020 Wild Card was also a three-point overtime defeat.

The pattern is clear: a Josh Allen-led team in the playoffs will almost certainly have an opportunity to win the game late in the fourth quarter. That’s literally what happens nearly every time the Bills take the field in January.

Denver’s defense will present a significant challenge. The Broncos have faced plenty of elite quarterbacks this season, going up against the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts. They know how to prepare for high-level competition.

However, there are some concerns about whether Denver is as good as their record indicates. The Broncos won 11 one-possession games this season, including some narrow escapes against lesser opponents. Buffalo, meanwhile, has proven they can find ways to win in hostile environments.

Betting Trends

The Bills are 8-10 against the spread this season and 5-4 ATS on the road. The Broncos are 8-9 ATS overall but a stronger 6-3 ATS at home. The under has cashed in 10 of 18 Bills games and 10 of 17 Broncos games this year.

The Pick: Bills +1.5

We’re going to the well with the Bills and Allen one more time. The statistical analysis tells us this will be a close game decided by a possession or less. We learned our lesson last week going against Allen.

One of these years, Allen figures to break through and reach the Super Bowl. Time is running out. Is this the year? The Bills are certainly capable of beating Denver and then facing either the Patriots or Texans in the AFC Championship.

We believe Buffalo comes out on top here and advances to another conference championship game, giving them another opportunity to finally reach the Super Bowl.

Our Pick: Bills +1.5

The Bills would also make an excellent teaser leg at +7.5.