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As I See It, by Jimmy Vaccaro
September 4, 2001
Blindly Betting on Big Moves Can Make You a Big Loser!
Well, the first weekend of college football is behind us, and it showed the same pattern of volatile line changes that has been in vogue the last few years. There’s lots of opinions as to what is causing this development, but take it from me, it is simply the natural evolution of betting, given the growth of this activity. In other words, there is no single answer.
There was always volatile line movement among some games, but it now happens with greater frequency. Why? To begin with, there are simply a lot more people involved in betting on sports today than ever before.
There is greater movement of numbers because so many bettors do not get involved until game day. Many of them do not have an inkling of what the number has evolved from since it was first posted, five or six days earlier.
Bettors who back a public team or a favorite really don’t care about prior line movement. They simply want to bet that team at whatever number they see.
Let me give a recent example to illustrate what I am talking about. Tennessee opened -11½ over Syracuse in its season opener at home, but climbed as high as -19½ by kickoff at some books. In a result that is the exception, not the rule, the Vols’ 33-9 victory was an easy cover for the public.
Going back some 20 years, I remember similar games in which I was directly involved as a bookmaker. One caveat, I am trusting to memory, and if there’s a date or a pointspread that’s not 100 percent accurate, don’t holler at me, send your letters to Scotty Schettler.
Cal vs. Stanford in ’78 stands out as a game whose line movement went into orbit. A tout outfit from Boston, which was gathering a following, released the favorite in the game, which I believe was the Golden Bears.
Within four hours of being released, Cal went from -7 to as high as -18 before it settled back around -15. I was running the book at a small joint called the Royal Inn, and just using basic moves, I was around $20,000 high on the favorite by the time I got to -12.
However, I had gotten a tip on the game from the legendary Sam Brown, who was the greatest arbitrageur of all time. Thanks to his help, I was able to cut my losses. So, my baptism of fire on huge line swings was a valuable lesson. Oh yeah, the move got the money.
The tout group stayed strong until that fateful day a few years later, in a game which I believe involved Georgia Tech and West Virginia. Once again, the play was on the favorite. When it was put out, bettors pounded the game from -6½ to -15. Remember, in those days there was no Information Highway, or Internet. Weather conditions were not nearly as accessible as they are today.
So in our game, a huge thunderstorm was in the process of moving in, and only a handful of sharps knew about it. They waited until the number peaked before making their move.
However, the dog won the game outright. This evened the score at one apiece, as far as I was concerned.
Sports betting skyrocketed as the Vegas casinos opened sportsbooks. But as more and more players got caught up in it, those that understood the meaning of line value became fewer and fewer. That ratio remains constant to this day.
For instance, take the Syracuse-Tennessee game. The legitimate number on that game was from 12 to 14 points. I bet the Vols at -13, and anything over 14 was a pass or a look at the dog. In fact, I did take a small bite when it reached 19 simply because it was absurd to think people were still laying that number.
I am well aware of what all the followers do and where they are coming from, but let me assure you that the opening number on any game is not 6 points off. There is nothing wrong with following someone, but only at a cost of maybe one point at the most.
Any time you lay over that, you might just as well mail your money in to the book, as it would be easier on your health. While you’re sweating out the game, the person you are following has put themselves in a position to win, whereas you need a lucky fluke for a chance to get the cheese.
Remember, even with the right number, it is still difficult to win. Do not make things harder.
There were some fireworks the first week, and following blindly would not have put any money in your pocket. In last Thursday’s Arizona-San Diego State game, a 5-point move did not get the money. On Saturday, Cal -1 – which went as high as -5 – was a loser. Ball State +26, down as low as +20 vs. Auburn, did not get the money. Wake Forest + and a 6-point move did not get the money. And Air Force’s big move vs. Oklahoma netted no profits. There were other big moves, but I think with these examples you get the drill.
Big moves will always be with us, but before you put up your cash it is imperative that you know the opening number so you have a reference point. Knowing what that number is should keep you from making the plays of a rank square.
On a personal note, I was pleasantly surprised at the response to my first article, and my thanks to all those sites that are using it. I will try to do two per week, with a winning pick in the article at the end of the week.
I’m always pleased to converse with other bettors, and may be reached at vaccarosports@lvcm.com.
Stay well and stay loose,
Jimmy V.
As I See It, by Jimmy Vaccaro
September 4, 2001
Blindly Betting on Big Moves Can Make You a Big Loser!
Well, the first weekend of college football is behind us, and it showed the same pattern of volatile line changes that has been in vogue the last few years. There’s lots of opinions as to what is causing this development, but take it from me, it is simply the natural evolution of betting, given the growth of this activity. In other words, there is no single answer.
There was always volatile line movement among some games, but it now happens with greater frequency. Why? To begin with, there are simply a lot more people involved in betting on sports today than ever before.
There is greater movement of numbers because so many bettors do not get involved until game day. Many of them do not have an inkling of what the number has evolved from since it was first posted, five or six days earlier.
Bettors who back a public team or a favorite really don’t care about prior line movement. They simply want to bet that team at whatever number they see.
Let me give a recent example to illustrate what I am talking about. Tennessee opened -11½ over Syracuse in its season opener at home, but climbed as high as -19½ by kickoff at some books. In a result that is the exception, not the rule, the Vols’ 33-9 victory was an easy cover for the public.
Going back some 20 years, I remember similar games in which I was directly involved as a bookmaker. One caveat, I am trusting to memory, and if there’s a date or a pointspread that’s not 100 percent accurate, don’t holler at me, send your letters to Scotty Schettler.
Cal vs. Stanford in ’78 stands out as a game whose line movement went into orbit. A tout outfit from Boston, which was gathering a following, released the favorite in the game, which I believe was the Golden Bears.
Within four hours of being released, Cal went from -7 to as high as -18 before it settled back around -15. I was running the book at a small joint called the Royal Inn, and just using basic moves, I was around $20,000 high on the favorite by the time I got to -12.
However, I had gotten a tip on the game from the legendary Sam Brown, who was the greatest arbitrageur of all time. Thanks to his help, I was able to cut my losses. So, my baptism of fire on huge line swings was a valuable lesson. Oh yeah, the move got the money.
The tout group stayed strong until that fateful day a few years later, in a game which I believe involved Georgia Tech and West Virginia. Once again, the play was on the favorite. When it was put out, bettors pounded the game from -6½ to -15. Remember, in those days there was no Information Highway, or Internet. Weather conditions were not nearly as accessible as they are today.
So in our game, a huge thunderstorm was in the process of moving in, and only a handful of sharps knew about it. They waited until the number peaked before making their move.
However, the dog won the game outright. This evened the score at one apiece, as far as I was concerned.
Sports betting skyrocketed as the Vegas casinos opened sportsbooks. But as more and more players got caught up in it, those that understood the meaning of line value became fewer and fewer. That ratio remains constant to this day.
For instance, take the Syracuse-Tennessee game. The legitimate number on that game was from 12 to 14 points. I bet the Vols at -13, and anything over 14 was a pass or a look at the dog. In fact, I did take a small bite when it reached 19 simply because it was absurd to think people were still laying that number.
I am well aware of what all the followers do and where they are coming from, but let me assure you that the opening number on any game is not 6 points off. There is nothing wrong with following someone, but only at a cost of maybe one point at the most.
Any time you lay over that, you might just as well mail your money in to the book, as it would be easier on your health. While you’re sweating out the game, the person you are following has put themselves in a position to win, whereas you need a lucky fluke for a chance to get the cheese.
Remember, even with the right number, it is still difficult to win. Do not make things harder.
There were some fireworks the first week, and following blindly would not have put any money in your pocket. In last Thursday’s Arizona-San Diego State game, a 5-point move did not get the money. On Saturday, Cal -1 – which went as high as -5 – was a loser. Ball State +26, down as low as +20 vs. Auburn, did not get the money. Wake Forest + and a 6-point move did not get the money. And Air Force’s big move vs. Oklahoma netted no profits. There were other big moves, but I think with these examples you get the drill.
Big moves will always be with us, but before you put up your cash it is imperative that you know the opening number so you have a reference point. Knowing what that number is should keep you from making the plays of a rank square.
On a personal note, I was pleasantly surprised at the response to my first article, and my thanks to all those sites that are using it. I will try to do two per week, with a winning pick in the article at the end of the week.
I’m always pleased to converse with other bettors, and may be reached at vaccarosports@lvcm.com.
Stay well and stay loose,
Jimmy V.