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Jimmy V Column 12/28
December 28, 2001
As I See It, by Jimmy Vaccaro
Handicapping Hints for the Holiday Bowl Season
If you're open to a few suggestions from someone who's been there a few times, let's talk about picking winners in the remaining bowls.
The first thing you need to know is that, yes the bowls are different. Sure, sound handicapping principles always apply, whatever the venue: good teams beat bad teams; teams that have been there tend to do better than teams new to the scene; smart coaches outcoach their less gifted rivals. Still, there are certain handicapping tools - trends, tendencies, psychological quirks - that come into play just for the bowl season.
For example, a look at the record shows that underdogs as a group have performed better than expected in their bowl appearances. Let me show you how much better from last year's bowl record:
2000-2001 COLLEGE BOWLS
Wed D20, MOBILE-ALA: S Miss (+7) TCU 28-21
Thu D21, LAS VEGAS: UNLV (+3) Arkansas 31-14
Sun D24, OAHU: Georgia (-9) Virginia 37-14
Mon D25, ALOHA: Bost Coll (+3½) Ariz St 31-17
Wed D27, GALLERYFURN: E Car (+1½) Tex Tech 40-27
Wed D27, MOTOR CITY: Marshall (+3) Cinci 25-14
Thu D28, MICRON: NC St (+3½) Minnesota 38-30
Thu D28, MUSIC CITY: W Va (+3½) Mississippi 49-38
Thu D28, INSIGHT: Iowa St (+1) Pittsbg 37-29
Fri D29, SUN: UCLA (+5) Wisc 20-21
Fri D29, PEACH: LSU (+8½) Georgia Tech 28-14
Fri D29, HOLIDAY: Oregon (+7½) Texas 35-30
Sat D30, ALAMO: Nebraska (-14½)N'Western 66-17
Sun D31, SILICON VAL: Air Force(+1½) FresnoSt 37-34
Sun D31, INDEPNDNCE: Miss St (+1½) Texas A&M 43-41
Mon J1, FIESTA: Oreg St (-3½) Notre Dame 41-9
Mon J1, ROSE: Washington (+1) Purdue 34-24
Mon J1, GATOR: Va Tech (-5) Clemson 41-20
Mon J1, CITRUS: Auburn (+7½) Michigan 28-31
Mon J1, OUTBACK: So Carolina (+5) Ohio St 24-7
Mon J1, COTTON: Kansas St (-3½) Tennessee (35-21
Tue J2, ORANGE: Miami (-6) Florida 37-20
Wed J3, SUGAR: Oklahoma (+10) Fla St (13-2
Last year was a bull year for dogs. In 26 bowl games, 17 dogs covered. 15 of those covers were outright upsets. If you had bet nothing but dogs you would have gone 17-9 for 65.3%.
Note that where the line was 6 or more, the dogs won 5-3. Where the line was 3½ or less, they went 9-2. This goes slightly against a long-term trend that says the bigger spreads favor the dogs more. But that's a very minor speed bump on the road to bowl wisdom. It's pretty clear dogs have the edge.
This relates with my experience in all my years running the sportsbooks. Long-term results are not nearly so overwhelming but the edge is still there. According to my stat logs over the last 25 years, bowl underdogs have covered the number at roughly a 56% clip - about 4 points higher than expectation.
The question is why. And the educated guesses are many.
The bowls draw more "square" bettors who tend to bet the marquee games. Square bettors may bet fewer dollars per game than wiseguys but there are so many more of them that their total action has to be a concern for the house. If the squares are right and the marquee name wins, the house could get hurt big time - unless there's balancing money on the dog. That's why the house is compelled to raise the price on the favorite - oftentimes in advance - even when they know they are giving extra points to the smarter bettors who were usually on the cog to begin with. I guess that's just another instance of the rich getting richer while the poor get poorer. But the joints have to protect their money and if it means making an edge of free points to guys in the know, so be it. This is one reason bowl favorites get pricey, and that dogs tend to cover and smarts tend to do well.
Another reason dogs do somewhat better is added preparation time. Coaches have time to game plan around their team's strengths or to fine-tune an attack on their opponents' weaknesses. The classic case of all time, to my mind, was Miami (+3) over Oklahoma in the '84 Cotton Bowl. Miami coach Jimmy Johnson - a fiend for work in any situation - installed no fewer than 35 defensive sets. Then he created a completely different defensive look for the second half, to thwart any adjustments Oklahoma would make at half time. The 'Canes won 17-3.
Here are some other things to look for:
* In minor bowls, consider going against the favorite that was being considered for a more prestigious bowl but came up short, usually by losing their last regular season game. The minor bowl they wind up in seems like a door prize. The players can't get pumped for it and their performance usually reflects that. The record shows that teams laying points in minor bowls off a loss in their last regular-season game have performed below expectations.
* In figuring edges in bowl games, the won/lost record is not as important as quality of opposition, i.e., who did they beat? How did they perform against their better opponents? Even where they lost, check out their game stats - especially rushing offense and defense. In the colleges, games are still won and lost in the trenches.
* A team that couldn't muster decent stats against other bowl-bound teams on its schedule may have a serious weakness - a weakness that never surfaced against their weaker opponents (and so misled the public) but that could make them a pushover against a well-rounded, balanced opponent. This is where the occasional blowout comes from.
Here are some other trends that may be useful:
* Teams that were humiliated in their last bowl appearance tend to play much better this time, especially as underdogs.
* Coaching assumes added importance in bowl games.
* Emotional factors take on exaggerated importance. The Peach Bowl saw a dispirited performance by the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on learning that their offensive coordinator Ralph Friedgen had left Tech to become head coach at Maryland. Mississippi went through a similar trauma when then HC Tommy Tuberville "deserted" them for Auburn. It doesn't happen often, but when it does, it seems to count a lot so make note of it.
* Experience counts. Teams making their first bowl appearance usually lose.
* Speed is often a quick and easy way to find an edge in bowl games. Florida State's blowout of Virginia Tech in the 2000 championship game was a textbook case of superior team speed.
* Surface seems to be less significant in bowl games - possibly because teams get to practice in the stadium where the game will be played.
And here are some tips on betting bowls.
In bowl games, you get the chance to make your wagers well in advance. As you probably know, pro bettors often jump a line the minute it gets posted. Should you do the same?
In marquee matchups, the line on the favorite usually goes higher as we get closer to kickoff. Tourists flocking to Las Vegas for New Year's weekend include a disproportionate number of squares, who as a rule do not bet early. Or to put it another way . because they're basically part-timers, they don't do their figuring 'til late in the week when it must be done with urgency. They simply don't have the luxury of finding good prices early and taking advantage of them. By contrast, the pro bettor is ready the minute the line is posted. If he sees he's getting the best of it with the opening line - and it's not going to get any better - he gets his bet down right away. Later on, if the line has moved enough to make the other side attractive, he may even keep a high side but bet a small portion on the other side to induce a middle proposition.
Betting early is not without its dangers, however. For example, some teams will lose key players to academic suspension when first-semester grades are released in the week before Christmas.
If you're prepared to follow the helpful hints I gave you, you might be able to pick your own winners - and I wish you lots of luck. But it's a little late if you don't already have stat summaries and a good fix on the teams.
Here's one of my weekend plays. Oakland goes to Denver, and Oakland is definitely heading into the playoffs out of sync. Denver with Griese back and Rod Smith much healthier gives Oakland what it doesn't need - another loss.
Comments are appreciated. Contact me at [email protected] or through my website, www.jimmyvaccaro.com. Check out my offshore report at www.legalwagerreport.com. And for a daily free pick call 1-800-299-1122.
Have a Happy New Year.
Jimmy V.
As I See It, by Jimmy Vaccaro
Handicapping Hints for the Holiday Bowl Season
If you're open to a few suggestions from someone who's been there a few times, let's talk about picking winners in the remaining bowls.
The first thing you need to know is that, yes the bowls are different. Sure, sound handicapping principles always apply, whatever the venue: good teams beat bad teams; teams that have been there tend to do better than teams new to the scene; smart coaches outcoach their less gifted rivals. Still, there are certain handicapping tools - trends, tendencies, psychological quirks - that come into play just for the bowl season.
For example, a look at the record shows that underdogs as a group have performed better than expected in their bowl appearances. Let me show you how much better from last year's bowl record:
2000-2001 COLLEGE BOWLS
Wed D20, MOBILE-ALA: S Miss (+7) TCU 28-21
Thu D21, LAS VEGAS: UNLV (+3) Arkansas 31-14
Sun D24, OAHU: Georgia (-9) Virginia 37-14
Mon D25, ALOHA: Bost Coll (+3½) Ariz St 31-17
Wed D27, GALLERYFURN: E Car (+1½) Tex Tech 40-27
Wed D27, MOTOR CITY: Marshall (+3) Cinci 25-14
Thu D28, MICRON: NC St (+3½) Minnesota 38-30
Thu D28, MUSIC CITY: W Va (+3½) Mississippi 49-38
Thu D28, INSIGHT: Iowa St (+1) Pittsbg 37-29
Fri D29, SUN: UCLA (+5) Wisc 20-21
Fri D29, PEACH: LSU (+8½) Georgia Tech 28-14
Fri D29, HOLIDAY: Oregon (+7½) Texas 35-30
Sat D30, ALAMO: Nebraska (-14½)N'Western 66-17
Sun D31, SILICON VAL: Air Force(+1½) FresnoSt 37-34
Sun D31, INDEPNDNCE: Miss St (+1½) Texas A&M 43-41
Mon J1, FIESTA: Oreg St (-3½) Notre Dame 41-9
Mon J1, ROSE: Washington (+1) Purdue 34-24
Mon J1, GATOR: Va Tech (-5) Clemson 41-20
Mon J1, CITRUS: Auburn (+7½) Michigan 28-31
Mon J1, OUTBACK: So Carolina (+5) Ohio St 24-7
Mon J1, COTTON: Kansas St (-3½) Tennessee (35-21
Tue J2, ORANGE: Miami (-6) Florida 37-20
Wed J3, SUGAR: Oklahoma (+10) Fla St (13-2
Last year was a bull year for dogs. In 26 bowl games, 17 dogs covered. 15 of those covers were outright upsets. If you had bet nothing but dogs you would have gone 17-9 for 65.3%.
Note that where the line was 6 or more, the dogs won 5-3. Where the line was 3½ or less, they went 9-2. This goes slightly against a long-term trend that says the bigger spreads favor the dogs more. But that's a very minor speed bump on the road to bowl wisdom. It's pretty clear dogs have the edge.
This relates with my experience in all my years running the sportsbooks. Long-term results are not nearly so overwhelming but the edge is still there. According to my stat logs over the last 25 years, bowl underdogs have covered the number at roughly a 56% clip - about 4 points higher than expectation.
The question is why. And the educated guesses are many.
The bowls draw more "square" bettors who tend to bet the marquee games. Square bettors may bet fewer dollars per game than wiseguys but there are so many more of them that their total action has to be a concern for the house. If the squares are right and the marquee name wins, the house could get hurt big time - unless there's balancing money on the dog. That's why the house is compelled to raise the price on the favorite - oftentimes in advance - even when they know they are giving extra points to the smarter bettors who were usually on the cog to begin with. I guess that's just another instance of the rich getting richer while the poor get poorer. But the joints have to protect their money and if it means making an edge of free points to guys in the know, so be it. This is one reason bowl favorites get pricey, and that dogs tend to cover and smarts tend to do well.
Another reason dogs do somewhat better is added preparation time. Coaches have time to game plan around their team's strengths or to fine-tune an attack on their opponents' weaknesses. The classic case of all time, to my mind, was Miami (+3) over Oklahoma in the '84 Cotton Bowl. Miami coach Jimmy Johnson - a fiend for work in any situation - installed no fewer than 35 defensive sets. Then he created a completely different defensive look for the second half, to thwart any adjustments Oklahoma would make at half time. The 'Canes won 17-3.
Here are some other things to look for:
* In minor bowls, consider going against the favorite that was being considered for a more prestigious bowl but came up short, usually by losing their last regular season game. The minor bowl they wind up in seems like a door prize. The players can't get pumped for it and their performance usually reflects that. The record shows that teams laying points in minor bowls off a loss in their last regular-season game have performed below expectations.
* In figuring edges in bowl games, the won/lost record is not as important as quality of opposition, i.e., who did they beat? How did they perform against their better opponents? Even where they lost, check out their game stats - especially rushing offense and defense. In the colleges, games are still won and lost in the trenches.
* A team that couldn't muster decent stats against other bowl-bound teams on its schedule may have a serious weakness - a weakness that never surfaced against their weaker opponents (and so misled the public) but that could make them a pushover against a well-rounded, balanced opponent. This is where the occasional blowout comes from.
Here are some other trends that may be useful:
* Teams that were humiliated in their last bowl appearance tend to play much better this time, especially as underdogs.
* Coaching assumes added importance in bowl games.
* Emotional factors take on exaggerated importance. The Peach Bowl saw a dispirited performance by the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on learning that their offensive coordinator Ralph Friedgen had left Tech to become head coach at Maryland. Mississippi went through a similar trauma when then HC Tommy Tuberville "deserted" them for Auburn. It doesn't happen often, but when it does, it seems to count a lot so make note of it.
* Experience counts. Teams making their first bowl appearance usually lose.
* Speed is often a quick and easy way to find an edge in bowl games. Florida State's blowout of Virginia Tech in the 2000 championship game was a textbook case of superior team speed.
* Surface seems to be less significant in bowl games - possibly because teams get to practice in the stadium where the game will be played.
And here are some tips on betting bowls.
In bowl games, you get the chance to make your wagers well in advance. As you probably know, pro bettors often jump a line the minute it gets posted. Should you do the same?
In marquee matchups, the line on the favorite usually goes higher as we get closer to kickoff. Tourists flocking to Las Vegas for New Year's weekend include a disproportionate number of squares, who as a rule do not bet early. Or to put it another way . because they're basically part-timers, they don't do their figuring 'til late in the week when it must be done with urgency. They simply don't have the luxury of finding good prices early and taking advantage of them. By contrast, the pro bettor is ready the minute the line is posted. If he sees he's getting the best of it with the opening line - and it's not going to get any better - he gets his bet down right away. Later on, if the line has moved enough to make the other side attractive, he may even keep a high side but bet a small portion on the other side to induce a middle proposition.
Betting early is not without its dangers, however. For example, some teams will lose key players to academic suspension when first-semester grades are released in the week before Christmas.
If you're prepared to follow the helpful hints I gave you, you might be able to pick your own winners - and I wish you lots of luck. But it's a little late if you don't already have stat summaries and a good fix on the teams.
Here's one of my weekend plays. Oakland goes to Denver, and Oakland is definitely heading into the playoffs out of sync. Denver with Griese back and Rod Smith much healthier gives Oakland what it doesn't need - another loss.
Comments are appreciated. Contact me at [email protected] or through my website, www.jimmyvaccaro.com. Check out my offshore report at www.legalwagerreport.com. And for a daily free pick call 1-800-299-1122.
Have a Happy New Year.
Jimmy V.