Tweet
Football Betting Advice
Parlays aren't best way to bet
BY ANDREW N.S. GLAZER
Detroit Free Press
It seems like only about 15 minutes ago that I was watching baseball's All-Star Game tie, and now football season is upon us.
I know most of you will be shocked to learn there will be a lot of gambling going on during the upcoming professional and college football seasons. It doesn't seem to matter that the majority of this gambling is illegal. Although betting with Nevada sports books is legal, betting with your local bookie is not.
Assuming you're going to go the legal way, I want to set you straight about one of the faster ways you can lose your money in football betting: parlays.
Normally, football betting is simple. The sports book posts a point spread, like Rams-17.5 vs. Lions, and you can either take the Rams and give 17.5 points to the Lions, or take the Lions and hope they either win the game or lose by 17 or fewer points. The book makes his money because you have to lay 11-10 odds either way. If the bookie can take in $100,000 in action on each team, he can't lose: He'll collect $110,000 from one team's backers and pay out $100,000 to the other team's backers.
Because of that 11-10 edge, usually called the vig, a regular bettor has to pick the winner at least 52.38 percent of the time to break even. At 53 percent you're a winner, and at 52 percent you're a loser.
There are ways to bet on football other than straight spread bets. Two of the most popular are over-under betting and parlays.
Over-under betting involves the same 11-10 vig as betting with a point spread, but here you're betting on the total number of points scored in a game. That same Rams-Lions game might have a total like 58.5 posted. If you bet the over, you will win your bet if either team wins 59-0 or 30-29, or any higher total. If you bet the under, the total must be less than 57.
Parlay betting involves wagering on the outcome of two, three or more games at once. The same point spreads used for straight betting are used in the parlay form. To win your parlay bet, you must win every game.
Theoretically, the spread makes each game an even proposition. (In practice, the spreads are not the book's prediction of what will happen, but the number the book thinks will attract equal action on both teams.)
As a result, the mathematically fair odds on parlays should be: two games, 3-1; three, 7-1; four, 15-1; five, 31-1; six, 63-1.
Unfortunately, no casino, unless it's running some kind of promotion, is going to give you fair odds. You're much more likely to see a two-team parlay going off at 12-5 or 13-5, and a three-teamer at 6-1 instead of 7-1. So parlays are usually pretty bad deals.
It's tough enough to beat a football point spread. Do yourself a favor, and stay away from parlays.
ANDREW N.S. GLAZER teaches gambling seminars nationally for Casino Conquests International, www.casinoselfdefense.com, and is the author of "Casino Gambling the Smart Way." Write to him at P.O. Box 828, Detroit, MI 48231.
BY ANDREW N.S. GLAZER
Detroit Free Press
It seems like only about 15 minutes ago that I was watching baseball's All-Star Game tie, and now football season is upon us.
I know most of you will be shocked to learn there will be a lot of gambling going on during the upcoming professional and college football seasons. It doesn't seem to matter that the majority of this gambling is illegal. Although betting with Nevada sports books is legal, betting with your local bookie is not.
Assuming you're going to go the legal way, I want to set you straight about one of the faster ways you can lose your money in football betting: parlays.
Normally, football betting is simple. The sports book posts a point spread, like Rams-17.5 vs. Lions, and you can either take the Rams and give 17.5 points to the Lions, or take the Lions and hope they either win the game or lose by 17 or fewer points. The book makes his money because you have to lay 11-10 odds either way. If the bookie can take in $100,000 in action on each team, he can't lose: He'll collect $110,000 from one team's backers and pay out $100,000 to the other team's backers.
Because of that 11-10 edge, usually called the vig, a regular bettor has to pick the winner at least 52.38 percent of the time to break even. At 53 percent you're a winner, and at 52 percent you're a loser.
There are ways to bet on football other than straight spread bets. Two of the most popular are over-under betting and parlays.
Over-under betting involves the same 11-10 vig as betting with a point spread, but here you're betting on the total number of points scored in a game. That same Rams-Lions game might have a total like 58.5 posted. If you bet the over, you will win your bet if either team wins 59-0 or 30-29, or any higher total. If you bet the under, the total must be less than 57.
Parlay betting involves wagering on the outcome of two, three or more games at once. The same point spreads used for straight betting are used in the parlay form. To win your parlay bet, you must win every game.
Theoretically, the spread makes each game an even proposition. (In practice, the spreads are not the book's prediction of what will happen, but the number the book thinks will attract equal action on both teams.)
As a result, the mathematically fair odds on parlays should be: two games, 3-1; three, 7-1; four, 15-1; five, 31-1; six, 63-1.
Unfortunately, no casino, unless it's running some kind of promotion, is going to give you fair odds. You're much more likely to see a two-team parlay going off at 12-5 or 13-5, and a three-teamer at 6-1 instead of 7-1. So parlays are usually pretty bad deals.
It's tough enough to beat a football point spread. Do yourself a favor, and stay away from parlays.
ANDREW N.S. GLAZER teaches gambling seminars nationally for Casino Conquests International, www.casinoselfdefense.com, and is the author of "Casino Gambling the Smart Way." Write to him at P.O. Box 828, Detroit, MI 48231.