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Fezzik Week 14 Nfl Recap
Bad Beat Brown Out. Cleveland’s Couch Crushes Casino Customers. FEZZIK WEEK 14 NFL RECAP.
Fezzik is a columnist and handicapper for www.SharpSportsBetting.com
“Fez, I hate the Ohio teams. It seems like every time I bet on Cincinnati they give me the business late in the 4th quarter. And don’t even get me started on Cleveland. You don’t even need to watch this team play until the last 30 seconds because that’s when the game is always decided. More than once I’ve been in line to cash a winning ticket on their games, only to turn around in disgust. I had these guys +5.5 last year vs. the Bears, and they managed to be up 14 with 2 minutes to play and not cover. Then I bet on them vs. the Chiefs, and they lose when one of their players is celebrating a victory before it happens. And then I bet against them, and they suddenly are the cardiac kids scoring on a Hail Mary. Then their kicker almost whiffs on the extra point, and somehow it stays inside the upright. That’s funny. That’s just too funny”.
That’s why they call it gambling. Actually, in contrast to the Browns, a few teams have been trustworthy of late. In the NFC, the Bucs, Eagles, 49ers and Packers all won, and look to be on collision courses for January playoff meetings. In the AFC, the Raiders appear to be hitting their stride, and have become the popular choice to represent the AFC. Despite the Jaguar disaster, it was a good week for most of the public with favorites covering 10 of the 16 games, and 10 of the games going over the total.
Browns 21. JAGUARS 20.
“Impossible”. The Jaguars gave this game away in bizarre fashion. They were up 17-14 deep in Cleveland territory with less than two minutes to play. How could they blow this game? Easy!
Play conservatively, and settle for three points.
Squib kick so the opponent gets the ball close to midfield.
Celebrate a win early after getting a sack.
Don’t have your people back ready to “KNOCK IT DOWN!” when your opponent needs to launch a Hail Mary.
As if this game needed another bizarre twist, note that Browns QB Couch tossed his helmet while celebrating the miracle hail mary. This is exactly the same boneheaded stunt that LB Lang pulled, costing the Browns a win in their opener. Evidently, Couch feels his head doesn’t need the extra protection, and I agree wholeheartedly. Make him play a whole game without it, he’ll be fine! This game had huge betting implications beyond just the Jaguars -2.5 line. The total was around 40.5 all week, so lucky over bettors got an undeserved push or win. And under bettors got their lunch handed to them. Also, some bettors have bets on the Jaguars Season Wins (7) and Browns (8). Based on this game (and this game only!) The Jags are headed under and the Browns over.
Bengals 31. PANTHERS 52.
How bad are the Bengals? The Panthers hadn’t scored 32 points all year. Here, they got 52. Cincinnati hosts Jacksonville next week. Anyone want to lay three with the Jaguars? Didn’t think so! But anyone brave enough to keep shoveling their money into the furnace with Cincy +3? Maybe shop around for 3.5? It’s a good spot for them (again). Just like this past week where many sharps took them +3.5. Too bad it wasn’t a mega-jumbo-supersize teaser +21.5.
Rams 10. CHIEFS 49.
The Chiefs suddenly look like…THE RAMS! Back to back 49 point outbursts in destroying two straight opponents. Savvy Chief fans know what’s coming……a close loss in Denver this coming week. They should have saved a few points from the past two weeks! As for St. Louis, they are already gearing up for baseball season.
Bills 17. PATRIOTS 24.
The Pats jumped on the Bills early, going up 17-0 in the first quarter. The Bills never were able to make a game of it despite out gaining the Pats by over 100 yards. Buffalo is now officially “dead”, and the Pats are looking at a chance to be back in the Super Bowl hunt.
Texans 24. STEELERS 6.
422 yards to 47 yards. What a domination. Except it was the Steelers that got the 422 yards. If you laid the Steelers –700 on the money line, NEVER BET AGAIN. The Texans returned an interception for touchdown. They returned a fumble for a touchdown. Then they returned another interception. They crushed the Steelers with a grand total of 3 first downs, despite giving up 24. The Texans’ paltry 47 yards of offense was the fewest ever gained by a winning team. Anyone who handicaps using yards-per-point ratios might want to exclude this game from their database.
Falcons 10. BUCS 34.
Obvious! All week long every “square” was touting the unstoppable Michael Vick. The Sharps remembered how the Bucs stopped him in the first meeting, and bought down the -3.5 early line to -3, and got the money as the Bucs completely shut down the Falcons.
With the win, Tampa became a favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Colts 17. TITANS 27.
Peyton Manning. For a guy that gets touted every week as a great qb, he sure throws a lot of interceptions (16 for the year already). He threw three here, and the Colts could not recover. The Titans jumped to 8-5, and with a sweep over the Colts have tie breaks over their division rival.
Giants 27. SKINS 21.
This was a painful game to watch for Redskin fans. They rolled up over 400 yards of offense, but gave away 4 fumbles. The result was a victory for the underdog Giants, who seem to continually lose games they should win, and win games they should lose.
Lions 20. CARDS 23.
Do you really want to try to make a living betting? Here is yet another example of how difficult it is. Ari “nono” gave up an interception in OT that should have doomed them to a loss. But the Lions grabbed Jake the Fake’s face mask, and gave away the game in the process. Arizona improved to 5-8. They may well not get another win until preseason 2003. Actually, I’m not sure they will win a game in next year’s preseason……….
Eagles 27. SEAHAWKS 20.
Sharp bettors know that home underdogs typically have great value in the NFL, especially when playing top tiered teams since they get great line value, and a sky high team ready for the upset. This theory has cleaned up all year, but it crashed and burned Sunday afternoon as parity disappeared in the NFL, and the “good” teams got it done. Here, the Eagles (in a horrible spot) got their 2nd win in three weeks on the West Coast. Super Bowl, here we come? E-A-G-L-E-S! Note to Eagle bettors……better keep winning, since you are not going to win if you have to go to Tampa in the playoffs. Note to Tampa bettors…..better keep winning, since you are not going to win in Philly in the playoffs.
Raiders 27. CHARGERS 7.
So much for fading the aging Raiders as the year goes on! At 9-4 they look to be the AFC favorite to go to the Super Bowl. In retrospect, they should have been there last year, except for that disaster in the snowstorm.
Broncos 13. JETS 19.
Looking for a good long shot bet to win the Super Bowl? How about the Broncos……a solid team that keeps losing close games. Of course, you better bet them next year since at 7-6 they are looking virtually dead, despite having solid statistics for the year. How did they lose this game? Easy. The sun went down. Is it me, or have the Broncos lost every night game all year long?
Saints 37. RAVENS 25.
How can the Saints be 9-4 despite giving up 20 points in every game this year? Impossible! I’m chalking it up to good luck only, and I’ll predict this team will fade. As for the Ravens, we are poised for an exciting end to the year since their season win total was 7 to 7.5 this year, and at 6-7 their game this week at Houston is a BIG game.
49ers 31. COWBOYS 27. The 49ers pulled out the win, but Cowboy +4.5 bettors got the money. This was little consolation to many sharp season wins’ bettors who loaded up on 49ers under 10, and Cowboys over 7 this year. With a 27-17 Cowboy lead, both season win bets were looking solid. Instead, they both look to be in deep trouble, all because the Cowboys went to the “let’s take zero risks”, and lost when they stopped being aggressive, and went to a prevent defense late when up 10. Did you know Dallas has now lost 7 games that they led or were tied in the 4th quarter? That’s not going to get it done!
Vikings 22. PACKERS 26.
I’ve always said about half of the games in the NFL are decided ATS by pure luck alone. This game was no exception. Up 22-20, late Viking +9.5 and sharp +10 bettors looked to be a lock, and under 44 bettors were hopeful. But then the Packers were aided by a questionable pass interference penalty to get into field goal range. Manysharp bettors teased the Packers early in the week down to -2.5, and they looked completely dead until the Vikings rolled over and actually seemed to let the Pack score on a 17 yard run with 1 minute to play (not a bad idea, if it was intentional!). The Vikings could only get to midfield with time running out, and had to rely on a Hail Mary. INTERCEPTED!! Does Sharper take a knee? Nooooooo. He starts weaving back and forth and back and forth. OH MY. HE’S HEADING FOR THE GOAL LINE. Somehow the exhausted Vikes got him down, and all the sharp bettors got the money, but not without some anxious seconds.
Bears 9. DOLPHINS 27.
Did I mention half of NFL games are decided ATS by chance? The total on the game was 36.5 to 38. The Bears scored with seconds remaining and what do they do? Go for two! Over bettors cursed their bad luck, middle bettors cursed even more, and under bettors just smiled and said “routine win”. I had the under. Oh Yeah.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
Fezzik is a columnist and handicapper for www.SharpSportsBetting.com
“Fez, I hate the Ohio teams. It seems like every time I bet on Cincinnati they give me the business late in the 4th quarter. And don’t even get me started on Cleveland. You don’t even need to watch this team play until the last 30 seconds because that’s when the game is always decided. More than once I’ve been in line to cash a winning ticket on their games, only to turn around in disgust. I had these guys +5.5 last year vs. the Bears, and they managed to be up 14 with 2 minutes to play and not cover. Then I bet on them vs. the Chiefs, and they lose when one of their players is celebrating a victory before it happens. And then I bet against them, and they suddenly are the cardiac kids scoring on a Hail Mary. Then their kicker almost whiffs on the extra point, and somehow it stays inside the upright. That’s funny. That’s just too funny”.
That’s why they call it gambling. Actually, in contrast to the Browns, a few teams have been trustworthy of late. In the NFC, the Bucs, Eagles, 49ers and Packers all won, and look to be on collision courses for January playoff meetings. In the AFC, the Raiders appear to be hitting their stride, and have become the popular choice to represent the AFC. Despite the Jaguar disaster, it was a good week for most of the public with favorites covering 10 of the 16 games, and 10 of the games going over the total.
Browns 21. JAGUARS 20.
“Impossible”. The Jaguars gave this game away in bizarre fashion. They were up 17-14 deep in Cleveland territory with less than two minutes to play. How could they blow this game? Easy!
Play conservatively, and settle for three points.
Squib kick so the opponent gets the ball close to midfield.
Celebrate a win early after getting a sack.
Don’t have your people back ready to “KNOCK IT DOWN!” when your opponent needs to launch a Hail Mary.
As if this game needed another bizarre twist, note that Browns QB Couch tossed his helmet while celebrating the miracle hail mary. This is exactly the same boneheaded stunt that LB Lang pulled, costing the Browns a win in their opener. Evidently, Couch feels his head doesn’t need the extra protection, and I agree wholeheartedly. Make him play a whole game without it, he’ll be fine! This game had huge betting implications beyond just the Jaguars -2.5 line. The total was around 40.5 all week, so lucky over bettors got an undeserved push or win. And under bettors got their lunch handed to them. Also, some bettors have bets on the Jaguars Season Wins (7) and Browns (8). Based on this game (and this game only!) The Jags are headed under and the Browns over.
Bengals 31. PANTHERS 52.
How bad are the Bengals? The Panthers hadn’t scored 32 points all year. Here, they got 52. Cincinnati hosts Jacksonville next week. Anyone want to lay three with the Jaguars? Didn’t think so! But anyone brave enough to keep shoveling their money into the furnace with Cincy +3? Maybe shop around for 3.5? It’s a good spot for them (again). Just like this past week where many sharps took them +3.5. Too bad it wasn’t a mega-jumbo-supersize teaser +21.5.
Rams 10. CHIEFS 49.
The Chiefs suddenly look like…THE RAMS! Back to back 49 point outbursts in destroying two straight opponents. Savvy Chief fans know what’s coming……a close loss in Denver this coming week. They should have saved a few points from the past two weeks! As for St. Louis, they are already gearing up for baseball season.
Bills 17. PATRIOTS 24.
The Pats jumped on the Bills early, going up 17-0 in the first quarter. The Bills never were able to make a game of it despite out gaining the Pats by over 100 yards. Buffalo is now officially “dead”, and the Pats are looking at a chance to be back in the Super Bowl hunt.
Texans 24. STEELERS 6.
422 yards to 47 yards. What a domination. Except it was the Steelers that got the 422 yards. If you laid the Steelers –700 on the money line, NEVER BET AGAIN. The Texans returned an interception for touchdown. They returned a fumble for a touchdown. Then they returned another interception. They crushed the Steelers with a grand total of 3 first downs, despite giving up 24. The Texans’ paltry 47 yards of offense was the fewest ever gained by a winning team. Anyone who handicaps using yards-per-point ratios might want to exclude this game from their database.
Falcons 10. BUCS 34.
Obvious! All week long every “square” was touting the unstoppable Michael Vick. The Sharps remembered how the Bucs stopped him in the first meeting, and bought down the -3.5 early line to -3, and got the money as the Bucs completely shut down the Falcons.
With the win, Tampa became a favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Colts 17. TITANS 27.
Peyton Manning. For a guy that gets touted every week as a great qb, he sure throws a lot of interceptions (16 for the year already). He threw three here, and the Colts could not recover. The Titans jumped to 8-5, and with a sweep over the Colts have tie breaks over their division rival.
Giants 27. SKINS 21.
This was a painful game to watch for Redskin fans. They rolled up over 400 yards of offense, but gave away 4 fumbles. The result was a victory for the underdog Giants, who seem to continually lose games they should win, and win games they should lose.
Lions 20. CARDS 23.
Do you really want to try to make a living betting? Here is yet another example of how difficult it is. Ari “nono” gave up an interception in OT that should have doomed them to a loss. But the Lions grabbed Jake the Fake’s face mask, and gave away the game in the process. Arizona improved to 5-8. They may well not get another win until preseason 2003. Actually, I’m not sure they will win a game in next year’s preseason……….
Eagles 27. SEAHAWKS 20.
Sharp bettors know that home underdogs typically have great value in the NFL, especially when playing top tiered teams since they get great line value, and a sky high team ready for the upset. This theory has cleaned up all year, but it crashed and burned Sunday afternoon as parity disappeared in the NFL, and the “good” teams got it done. Here, the Eagles (in a horrible spot) got their 2nd win in three weeks on the West Coast. Super Bowl, here we come? E-A-G-L-E-S! Note to Eagle bettors……better keep winning, since you are not going to win if you have to go to Tampa in the playoffs. Note to Tampa bettors…..better keep winning, since you are not going to win in Philly in the playoffs.
Raiders 27. CHARGERS 7.
So much for fading the aging Raiders as the year goes on! At 9-4 they look to be the AFC favorite to go to the Super Bowl. In retrospect, they should have been there last year, except for that disaster in the snowstorm.
Broncos 13. JETS 19.
Looking for a good long shot bet to win the Super Bowl? How about the Broncos……a solid team that keeps losing close games. Of course, you better bet them next year since at 7-6 they are looking virtually dead, despite having solid statistics for the year. How did they lose this game? Easy. The sun went down. Is it me, or have the Broncos lost every night game all year long?
Saints 37. RAVENS 25.
How can the Saints be 9-4 despite giving up 20 points in every game this year? Impossible! I’m chalking it up to good luck only, and I’ll predict this team will fade. As for the Ravens, we are poised for an exciting end to the year since their season win total was 7 to 7.5 this year, and at 6-7 their game this week at Houston is a BIG game.
49ers 31. COWBOYS 27. The 49ers pulled out the win, but Cowboy +4.5 bettors got the money. This was little consolation to many sharp season wins’ bettors who loaded up on 49ers under 10, and Cowboys over 7 this year. With a 27-17 Cowboy lead, both season win bets were looking solid. Instead, they both look to be in deep trouble, all because the Cowboys went to the “let’s take zero risks”, and lost when they stopped being aggressive, and went to a prevent defense late when up 10. Did you know Dallas has now lost 7 games that they led or were tied in the 4th quarter? That’s not going to get it done!
Vikings 22. PACKERS 26.
I’ve always said about half of the games in the NFL are decided ATS by pure luck alone. This game was no exception. Up 22-20, late Viking +9.5 and sharp +10 bettors looked to be a lock, and under 44 bettors were hopeful. But then the Packers were aided by a questionable pass interference penalty to get into field goal range. Manysharp bettors teased the Packers early in the week down to -2.5, and they looked completely dead until the Vikings rolled over and actually seemed to let the Pack score on a 17 yard run with 1 minute to play (not a bad idea, if it was intentional!). The Vikings could only get to midfield with time running out, and had to rely on a Hail Mary. INTERCEPTED!! Does Sharper take a knee? Nooooooo. He starts weaving back and forth and back and forth. OH MY. HE’S HEADING FOR THE GOAL LINE. Somehow the exhausted Vikes got him down, and all the sharp bettors got the money, but not without some anxious seconds.
Bears 9. DOLPHINS 27.
Did I mention half of NFL games are decided ATS by chance? The total on the game was 36.5 to 38. The Bears scored with seconds remaining and what do they do? Go for two! Over bettors cursed their bad luck, middle bettors cursed even more, and under bettors just smiled and said “routine win”. I had the under. Oh Yeah.
Chance favors the prepared mind.