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STATEMENT OF PURPOSE
This column – in its 2nd year – is designed as a response to the mindless talking heads that dominate football coverage on television and radio. All talking heads that think the same, say the same things, and have the daring-do of an insurance salesman. It is also a column written by and for a true handicapper of reasonable repute with extensive experience beyond your imagination in a plethora of incantations of wagering and strategies. The column is relatively team neutral, frequently humor-intended, insightful, and irreverent. Learn, enjoy, and feel free to respond. I often check for thread responses and will happy to respond to whatever happens to be on your mind after reading my column.
STATEMENT OF NON-PURPOSE
This is NOT a prediction column. The Black Cat makes his formal predictions at FreeSportsMonitor, where he registered 56% for the season on best bets in 2003 highlighted by a 66% September. The Black Cat’s masterpiece is laying out the keys and flavor of the game and letting YOU decide where to go with it. A great Black Cat column often reads like he wrote it after the games were played and there were a couple of those last season. A good one just presents the two sides of the bettor's coin accurately.
WELCOME TO NFL 2003
As usual, if you turn on the TV or Radio, the NFL is about one and only one thing: the defending Superbowl Champions Tampa Bay. Never mind that they are the lucky defensive team of the year that is likely to take a major pisser in the wind. Never mind that during most of the season the Gruden Bucs were nearly indistinguishable from the Dungy Bucs. I give the Bucs a solid 1 in 15 chance of repeating this year. That’s the reality. And I may be overstating it. My take is that the Bucs had the fortune of playing three straight West Coast teams in the playoffs. Not only is West Coast not the most bruising offense to play – oh say, like the Giants if they hadn’t had the FG debacle, but it apparently is a style of offense that favors the Bucs. They might have even gotten a rare Superbowl bye when the center flaked out, drinking himself under in Taiwan to "celebrate the Raiders Superbowl win", unfortunately not realizing the game had yet to be played due to some form of bipolar disorder. And that is my long-winded explanation as to why the Bucs will be cheering again in the new Vet. Sure the Eagles beat them last year, but that was with a Staley 150 yard performance and this year’s version just arrived off the holdout truck. If Staley doesn’t work his power running magic on the Bucs, there will be trouble. Sure Donovan McNabb may be harder to nail down than Suddam. And perhaps an improved Bucs offense probably only ranks them 15th in the league. But mark my words – when the Bucs play West Coast – they win.
The "huh" line of the week may have to be the Titans laying 3 to the Raiders. Never mind that the Raiders went Romo on them last year to the tune of 50 points and then kicked them out of the playoffs. Never mind that when I look up "acquisitions" in my 2003 stats book for the Titans it says "none". These teams are obviously mirrors of one another and therefore the Titans earn the obligatory home field 3. Titans are certainly healthier this year and the Raiders are another year older and that weights in Tennessee's favor. Don’t expect anyone to get a bye down in Titans-land so long as the team has a bit of wind in their sails.
When talking about morons on TV, I may have to exclude a very unlikely bipolar subject: Bryan Cox. Yes, the same dude who once barricaded himself in his own house is now the most intelligent sounding thing on TV. Scary, isn’t it? I heard him mutter the other day that he picked up Duece McAllister for his own fantasy team, so I’ll take that as a subtle endorsement from a guy who knows his tape better than I do. Saints open up against a promising but apparently tackle-free Seattle team and expect the flashy but defenseless Saints to have another strong start under Red this month. However, if Red loses his team for the 3rd straight season – as he likely will – he’ll be the first coach collecting unemployment this season.
Perhaps the most underrated acquisition of the season may be Kordell going to Chicago. Lets be honest, that hideous offense could not help but improve this season. Certainly, the punchless O left a formally proud Chicago defense out to dry last year, and it showed in a litany of late game collapses. Chicago may be one of the big surprises of 2003 and they open up against a newly coached and potentially overrated 49ers team that won games but couldn’t cover the spread last year. That led to a firing for "not being aggressive enough" although a more aggressive formula could easily spoil the Garcia brew, where it is believed he just isn’t a great deep threat in this league. Overrated acquisition has to go to Peerless Price, who has Alvin Harper written on his forehead. More likely, Price will draw away double coverage so that Finneran should post better numbers this year than previous, when he was the only receiver on the team assuming Vick wasn’t just tossing balls to himself on GO routes.
Kurt Warner must be excited with his 5th round draft status in most fantasy football leagues, considering he went undrafted in the XFL. Have we forgotten that the dude still completed 65% of his passes in a DOWN year? 70% of his passes if you include the ones the other team caught. Warner is in line for a monster season, but the first game could be deceiving. The Rams were a horrific 1-7 on the road last season and road games against tough defensive teams have never really been the Rams favorite even in their recent "prime". Giants brought their "A" game vs. the 49ers and Rams to open last season and I expect nothing less this time around.
Just when you have finished circling and starring the Patriots for creaming the Bledsoe-led Bills last year, they cut Lawyer and bring the whole matchup into chaos. Not surprisingly, Lawyer already has his bags packed for Buffalo with the playbook he "forgot" to return in toe. This truly looks like it will have a material effect on the game. Simply put, it does not send the right message to the Pats players.
The NFL’s bigtime Thursday night opener has been sinking like a blimp with a slow leak this past month. The Pennington car has a flat and they are brining in the old jalopy! While the focus has been on the departure of numerous Jets players like the Jewish people running from the Pharaoh, it has gone almost unnoticed that the Skins have a salary cap casualty of their own: Dan Wilkinson. I mention it because to every Achilles there is a heel. It is said that Ramsey's arm is ready for Canton but his head can't find the museum yet.
This week will be wild, generally close, and ultimately meaningless. We have a number of slightly better teams going on the road. When the thermostat dips below –3, you know you got a battle on the card. The interesting thing is that even though –2 signifies THE ROAD TEAM IS BETTER, it also indicates an opinion that the road team will more likely lose than win! Fascinating thought, isn’t it? It seems each year the correlation between the beginning and the end of the season gap wider and wider. That’s because while defense rules in the end, right now defenses are more likely tiny bumps in the road. In the case of Tampa Bay and the Bucs, that’s a big fat tiny bump in the road that you might want to drive your car around!
"I can predict the games, but I can not always predict the coaches, refs, or players stupidity during the games."
THE BLACK CAT
This column – in its 2nd year – is designed as a response to the mindless talking heads that dominate football coverage on television and radio. All talking heads that think the same, say the same things, and have the daring-do of an insurance salesman. It is also a column written by and for a true handicapper of reasonable repute with extensive experience beyond your imagination in a plethora of incantations of wagering and strategies. The column is relatively team neutral, frequently humor-intended, insightful, and irreverent. Learn, enjoy, and feel free to respond. I often check for thread responses and will happy to respond to whatever happens to be on your mind after reading my column.
STATEMENT OF NON-PURPOSE
This is NOT a prediction column. The Black Cat makes his formal predictions at FreeSportsMonitor, where he registered 56% for the season on best bets in 2003 highlighted by a 66% September. The Black Cat’s masterpiece is laying out the keys and flavor of the game and letting YOU decide where to go with it. A great Black Cat column often reads like he wrote it after the games were played and there were a couple of those last season. A good one just presents the two sides of the bettor's coin accurately.
WELCOME TO NFL 2003
As usual, if you turn on the TV or Radio, the NFL is about one and only one thing: the defending Superbowl Champions Tampa Bay. Never mind that they are the lucky defensive team of the year that is likely to take a major pisser in the wind. Never mind that during most of the season the Gruden Bucs were nearly indistinguishable from the Dungy Bucs. I give the Bucs a solid 1 in 15 chance of repeating this year. That’s the reality. And I may be overstating it. My take is that the Bucs had the fortune of playing three straight West Coast teams in the playoffs. Not only is West Coast not the most bruising offense to play – oh say, like the Giants if they hadn’t had the FG debacle, but it apparently is a style of offense that favors the Bucs. They might have even gotten a rare Superbowl bye when the center flaked out, drinking himself under in Taiwan to "celebrate the Raiders Superbowl win", unfortunately not realizing the game had yet to be played due to some form of bipolar disorder. And that is my long-winded explanation as to why the Bucs will be cheering again in the new Vet. Sure the Eagles beat them last year, but that was with a Staley 150 yard performance and this year’s version just arrived off the holdout truck. If Staley doesn’t work his power running magic on the Bucs, there will be trouble. Sure Donovan McNabb may be harder to nail down than Suddam. And perhaps an improved Bucs offense probably only ranks them 15th in the league. But mark my words – when the Bucs play West Coast – they win.
The "huh" line of the week may have to be the Titans laying 3 to the Raiders. Never mind that the Raiders went Romo on them last year to the tune of 50 points and then kicked them out of the playoffs. Never mind that when I look up "acquisitions" in my 2003 stats book for the Titans it says "none". These teams are obviously mirrors of one another and therefore the Titans earn the obligatory home field 3. Titans are certainly healthier this year and the Raiders are another year older and that weights in Tennessee's favor. Don’t expect anyone to get a bye down in Titans-land so long as the team has a bit of wind in their sails.
When talking about morons on TV, I may have to exclude a very unlikely bipolar subject: Bryan Cox. Yes, the same dude who once barricaded himself in his own house is now the most intelligent sounding thing on TV. Scary, isn’t it? I heard him mutter the other day that he picked up Duece McAllister for his own fantasy team, so I’ll take that as a subtle endorsement from a guy who knows his tape better than I do. Saints open up against a promising but apparently tackle-free Seattle team and expect the flashy but defenseless Saints to have another strong start under Red this month. However, if Red loses his team for the 3rd straight season – as he likely will – he’ll be the first coach collecting unemployment this season.
Perhaps the most underrated acquisition of the season may be Kordell going to Chicago. Lets be honest, that hideous offense could not help but improve this season. Certainly, the punchless O left a formally proud Chicago defense out to dry last year, and it showed in a litany of late game collapses. Chicago may be one of the big surprises of 2003 and they open up against a newly coached and potentially overrated 49ers team that won games but couldn’t cover the spread last year. That led to a firing for "not being aggressive enough" although a more aggressive formula could easily spoil the Garcia brew, where it is believed he just isn’t a great deep threat in this league. Overrated acquisition has to go to Peerless Price, who has Alvin Harper written on his forehead. More likely, Price will draw away double coverage so that Finneran should post better numbers this year than previous, when he was the only receiver on the team assuming Vick wasn’t just tossing balls to himself on GO routes.
Kurt Warner must be excited with his 5th round draft status in most fantasy football leagues, considering he went undrafted in the XFL. Have we forgotten that the dude still completed 65% of his passes in a DOWN year? 70% of his passes if you include the ones the other team caught. Warner is in line for a monster season, but the first game could be deceiving. The Rams were a horrific 1-7 on the road last season and road games against tough defensive teams have never really been the Rams favorite even in their recent "prime". Giants brought their "A" game vs. the 49ers and Rams to open last season and I expect nothing less this time around.
Just when you have finished circling and starring the Patriots for creaming the Bledsoe-led Bills last year, they cut Lawyer and bring the whole matchup into chaos. Not surprisingly, Lawyer already has his bags packed for Buffalo with the playbook he "forgot" to return in toe. This truly looks like it will have a material effect on the game. Simply put, it does not send the right message to the Pats players.
The NFL’s bigtime Thursday night opener has been sinking like a blimp with a slow leak this past month. The Pennington car has a flat and they are brining in the old jalopy! While the focus has been on the departure of numerous Jets players like the Jewish people running from the Pharaoh, it has gone almost unnoticed that the Skins have a salary cap casualty of their own: Dan Wilkinson. I mention it because to every Achilles there is a heel. It is said that Ramsey's arm is ready for Canton but his head can't find the museum yet.
This week will be wild, generally close, and ultimately meaningless. We have a number of slightly better teams going on the road. When the thermostat dips below –3, you know you got a battle on the card. The interesting thing is that even though –2 signifies THE ROAD TEAM IS BETTER, it also indicates an opinion that the road team will more likely lose than win! Fascinating thought, isn’t it? It seems each year the correlation between the beginning and the end of the season gap wider and wider. That’s because while defense rules in the end, right now defenses are more likely tiny bumps in the road. In the case of Tampa Bay and the Bucs, that’s a big fat tiny bump in the road that you might want to drive your car around!
"I can predict the games, but I can not always predict the coaches, refs, or players stupidity during the games."
THE BLACK CAT