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Wed. NBA preview and pick!

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  • Wed. NBA preview and pick!

    9.05pm ET
    LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets

    It's not so long ago that laying points when the Denver Nuggets played the Lakers would be considered a great way of burning your bankroll fast.

    But this is 2004 and tonight is a good spot to play the Nuggets at home laying 4 1/2 points against the short-handed Lakers.

    Denver are much-improved this season at 20-15 both SU and ATS. Key to their success has been a 13-7 home record although they enter this one off of two disappointing efforts at the Pepsi Center. Tim Duncan's 30 points and 12 rebounds led the Spurs to a 98-74 rout Monday night but San Antonio have been doing that to a number of teams recently. The reigning NBA champs have won eight straight road games by an average of 14 points.

    Prior to that effort the Nuggets were beaten 84-76 at home by the Atlanta Hawks but some of that loss may be attributed to an emotional let-down following a great win the previous night against a very solid home team in the Portland Trailblazers.

    "The effort and our defense have been very inconsistent as of late," Denver coach Jeff Bzdelik said. "I find it very disturbing. I am not sure why we are not playing with a competitive spirit." Expect the Nuggets to be much more focused for this one tonight and they are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season following a double-digit loss.

    The Lakers are 21-10 SU overall but their 11-19 ATS record shows just how over-rated they are. Last night they lost for the fifth time in six games as injuries to their Fab Four have taken their toll. They didn't even provide a contest for Minnesota last night, falling 15 points behind at the first break before losing 106-90. The Timberwolves were without Troy Hudson, Wally Szczerbiak and Michael Olowokandi so the Lakers can't use injuries as the sole reason for their poor performances of late.

    The Lakers have lost four of five since Karl Malone was injured. Shaquille O'Neal left Friday night's game at Seattle in the second quarter because of a calf injury and didn't return as the Lakers lost that game 111-109. Then with O'Neal sitting out again Sunday lost to the Clippers for just the third time in their last 26 meetings. Shaq is listed as doubtful tonight and will more likely return Friday at home against the Hawks.

    The Lakers have covered just one of their last twelve games overall. They are a miserable 5-11 ATS this season against teams with a winning record and just 3-11 ATS in all road games.

    These teams have already met once this season and the Nuggets played tough at the Staples Center. It took 26 points from Shaq and a buzzer-beater from Kobe for the Lakers to escape with a 101-99 win. That was their fifth straight win against Denver but with vastly different line-ups tonight you can throw that stat out the window and take the Nuggets to get an important home win tonight.

    Recommended Play: Denver -4.5
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