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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans 1:00 PM ET
Over 35 Tennessee/Jacksonville –105 (2 Units)
We like the bounce theory here with Jacksonville primed and ready to put some points on the board. Tennessee was able to beat the hapless Dolphins, but then couldn't stop Indianapolis last Sunday. Now the Jags are not in the same category as the Colts offensively but they don’t need to score 31 points like Indy did last week. 17 should be enough since the Titans are good for 3 touchdowns today. This will be the biggest test to date for the Jacksonville defense on the road.
Despite scoring only 17 points against the Colts, Tennessee was able to move the ball. The Titans had just one three-play series on offense and six of their of their 10 possessions lasted seven plays or longer. But the Titans had eight plays on third or fourth down where they needed only 1 or 2 yards to earn a new set of downs and they converted only three times. Those short yardage plays will come. ''The good thing is that you are keeping your third down distance short,'' Coach Jeff Fisher said. The Titans almost always fair well when they work on a point of emphasis during the week and several players said they expected short-yardage situations to be a theme as the team prepares for Jacksonville. As strong as Jacksonville's defense has been, the Jaguars have recorded just one sack in two games. QB Steve McNair is capable of picking any secondary apart given enough time. Jaguars LDE Paul Spicer is out after breaking his leg last week which will put a big hole into the Jacksonville defensive front. The Jaguars have given up some perimeter runs, so Fisher may try to run to the outside and avoid the Jaguars' two big tackles, Marcus Stroud and John Henderson. The Broncos had some success with perimeter runs early last week, but didn't stick to that strategy.
This is the type of game where the strategy will be different for the Jaguars offensively. The Titans will stack the line of scrimmage and force Byron Leftwich to throw downfield. If he exploits the single-coverage opportunities those fronts create on the outside, he'll open up the running game. Normally it’s just the opposite for them as they give the ball to Fred Taylor and let him do his thing. Taylor has been slowed by eight-man fronts and he should face more of the same. Tennessee's young defensive ends aren't generating enough pressure and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz cannot allow Leftwich to get comfortable in the pocket. The Titans lost Jevon Kearse to free agency but tried to replenish themselves by drafting three ends. The problem: the trio hasn't been very productive. A big advantage for the Jags is WR Reggie Williams against CB Andre Dyson. He has a 5 inch and 45 pound advantage over Dyson so as long as Leftwich gets enough time, look for Williams to have a big game. Bill Musgrave, offensive coordinator of a unit that is averaging a measly 200.5 yards and 10 points after two games, advises people not to sound the alarm about the lack of potency. He, too, believes his operation is on the verge of an explosion. With the defense playing at a Pro Bowl level, coach Jack Del Rio and Musgrave are less inclined to take risks. The linebacker situation for Tennessee is not good. The preseason started with Keith Bulluck on one side, emerging Peter Sirmon on the other and an improving Rocky Calmus in the middle. Now, Sirmon and Calmus are out and Brad Kassell, who has been hurt himself and hasn’t practiced, has been inserted into the lineup.
Over 35 Tennessee/Jacksonville –105 (2 Units)
We like the bounce theory here with Jacksonville primed and ready to put some points on the board. Tennessee was able to beat the hapless Dolphins, but then couldn't stop Indianapolis last Sunday. Now the Jags are not in the same category as the Colts offensively but they don’t need to score 31 points like Indy did last week. 17 should be enough since the Titans are good for 3 touchdowns today. This will be the biggest test to date for the Jacksonville defense on the road.
Despite scoring only 17 points against the Colts, Tennessee was able to move the ball. The Titans had just one three-play series on offense and six of their of their 10 possessions lasted seven plays or longer. But the Titans had eight plays on third or fourth down where they needed only 1 or 2 yards to earn a new set of downs and they converted only three times. Those short yardage plays will come. ''The good thing is that you are keeping your third down distance short,'' Coach Jeff Fisher said. The Titans almost always fair well when they work on a point of emphasis during the week and several players said they expected short-yardage situations to be a theme as the team prepares for Jacksonville. As strong as Jacksonville's defense has been, the Jaguars have recorded just one sack in two games. QB Steve McNair is capable of picking any secondary apart given enough time. Jaguars LDE Paul Spicer is out after breaking his leg last week which will put a big hole into the Jacksonville defensive front. The Jaguars have given up some perimeter runs, so Fisher may try to run to the outside and avoid the Jaguars' two big tackles, Marcus Stroud and John Henderson. The Broncos had some success with perimeter runs early last week, but didn't stick to that strategy.
This is the type of game where the strategy will be different for the Jaguars offensively. The Titans will stack the line of scrimmage and force Byron Leftwich to throw downfield. If he exploits the single-coverage opportunities those fronts create on the outside, he'll open up the running game. Normally it’s just the opposite for them as they give the ball to Fred Taylor and let him do his thing. Taylor has been slowed by eight-man fronts and he should face more of the same. Tennessee's young defensive ends aren't generating enough pressure and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz cannot allow Leftwich to get comfortable in the pocket. The Titans lost Jevon Kearse to free agency but tried to replenish themselves by drafting three ends. The problem: the trio hasn't been very productive. A big advantage for the Jags is WR Reggie Williams against CB Andre Dyson. He has a 5 inch and 45 pound advantage over Dyson so as long as Leftwich gets enough time, look for Williams to have a big game. Bill Musgrave, offensive coordinator of a unit that is averaging a measly 200.5 yards and 10 points after two games, advises people not to sound the alarm about the lack of potency. He, too, believes his operation is on the verge of an explosion. With the defense playing at a Pro Bowl level, coach Jack Del Rio and Musgrave are less inclined to take risks. The linebacker situation for Tennessee is not good. The preseason started with Keith Bulluck on one side, emerging Peter Sirmon on the other and an improving Rocky Calmus in the middle. Now, Sirmon and Calmus are out and Brad Kassell, who has been hurt himself and hasn’t practiced, has been inserted into the lineup.