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Note--Here's something I wrote up on Olympic's Steve Spurrier prop. I live in Columbia and am a graduate of the University of South Carolina, so I follow them pretty closely ; )
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Olympic has a prop on how many games the ol' ball coach will win in his first year at the University of South Carolina. Word on the streets is that he's having a tough time coming up with a transfer or JuCo QB and might not get one signed by the deadline. He'll likely have to make do with Blake Mitchell or Mike Rathe at QB, and they're inexperienced at best and very limited at worse. That'll make it extremely tough for him to run the offense the way he wants with the personnel on hand. Gamecocks' best WR, Troy Williamson, is going to try his luck with the NFL and that's a big loss as Spurrier tries to install what has been dubbed the "Cock 'n' Shoot" offense with what Lou Holtz has left in the cupboard. Transition from one offensive style to another is always tough, and Holtz's penchant for a conservative attack makes the change to Spurrier's preferred wide open schemes even tougher.
Spurrier's presence longterm will be a plus for the school and I don't see any reason he can't do great things at SC. Hell, the guy won at Duke. He's got the facilities he needs, plus the support of the fans who are downright giddy that he's come to Columbia. But looking at the 2005 schedule, he's going to have a tough time of it. Probably not as tough as Lou Holtz did in his first year at the school, but barring anything unforseen (like a hot shot transfer signing at the last minute) I don't see the Gamecocks posting a winning mark in his first year. Spurrier's presence also means that no one will be taking their game against SC lightly, particuarly Florida and Clemson (he's already ruffled feathers upstate by trying to hire away Brad Scott).
Here's what I see:
WINS: Central Florida, Alabama, Troy, Kentucky, Vandy
LOSSES: at Georgia, at Auburn, at Tennessee, at Arkansas,. Florida, Clemson
By my count that's a 5-6 record giving Spurrier the benefit of the doubt that he'll beat all of the teams he *should* beat. Troy State is no gimmie, and Alabama will probably be better next year but looking in my crystal ball I see the Gamecocks winning these. 'Bama will be Spurrier's first SEC home game in his new gig and I have to think that's one he'll want pretty bad and the Cocks had little trouble with the Tide on the road this year. Clemson obviously will be another game he'll want pretty badly, but Tigers have more talent on hand right now and have the continuity in the coaching staff that the Gamecocks don't right now. If the Cocks do win a road game it probably will be at Arkansas but that's not an easy task by any means. It's also a brutal scheduling spot, off a game at Tennessee and with *Florida* on deck....
5 Wins is +800 at Olympic and that looks pretty good. 3 or 4 wins can be had at +2500. 6 wins is probably the best he can do IMO and that's +200. So let's structure the bet (200 max) like this:
$200 @ 5 wins +800 (+1300)
$200 @ 6 wins +200 (+100)
$100 @ 3-4 wins +2500 (+2100)
We don't get hurt (even make a small profit) if he goes 6-5 but we make a nice profit if he wins only 3 through 5 games. 7 wins is +150 and I don't see a lot of value at that price...
All due respect to Spurrier's skills as a coach, but he kind of got the job late in the game in terms of recruiting and it'll probably take at least a year for him to remake the program and particularly the personnel he's got in place. To paraphrase that noted sports handicapper Donald Rumsfeld "you don't go to war with the army you want, you go to war with the army you have" and based on that I see a losing mark in the first year of the Spurrier era. Whether he likes it or not, 2005 will have to be a "rebuilding year" as he tries to work with the personnel on hand against a tough SEC schedule...
JRM/THE PROPHET
And make sure to check out our Bettorsworld Free Plays every day:
http://www.bettorsworld.com/pp/netprophet.htm
Olympic has a prop on how many games the ol' ball coach will win in his first year at the University of South Carolina. Word on the streets is that he's having a tough time coming up with a transfer or JuCo QB and might not get one signed by the deadline. He'll likely have to make do with Blake Mitchell or Mike Rathe at QB, and they're inexperienced at best and very limited at worse. That'll make it extremely tough for him to run the offense the way he wants with the personnel on hand. Gamecocks' best WR, Troy Williamson, is going to try his luck with the NFL and that's a big loss as Spurrier tries to install what has been dubbed the "Cock 'n' Shoot" offense with what Lou Holtz has left in the cupboard. Transition from one offensive style to another is always tough, and Holtz's penchant for a conservative attack makes the change to Spurrier's preferred wide open schemes even tougher.
Spurrier's presence longterm will be a plus for the school and I don't see any reason he can't do great things at SC. Hell, the guy won at Duke. He's got the facilities he needs, plus the support of the fans who are downright giddy that he's come to Columbia. But looking at the 2005 schedule, he's going to have a tough time of it. Probably not as tough as Lou Holtz did in his first year at the school, but barring anything unforseen (like a hot shot transfer signing at the last minute) I don't see the Gamecocks posting a winning mark in his first year. Spurrier's presence also means that no one will be taking their game against SC lightly, particuarly Florida and Clemson (he's already ruffled feathers
Here's what I see:
WINS: Central Florida, Alabama, Troy, Kentucky, Vandy
LOSSES: at Georgia, at Auburn, at Tennessee, at Arkansas,. Florida, Clemson
By my count that's a 5-6 record giving Spurrier the benefit of the doubt that he'll beat all of the teams he *should* beat. Troy State is no gimmie, and Alabama will probably be better next year but looking in my crystal ball I see the Gamecocks winning these. 'Bama will be Spurrier's first SEC home game in his new gig and I have to think that's one he'll want pretty bad and the Cocks had little trouble with the Tide on the road this year. Clemson obviously will be another game he'll want pretty badly, but Tigers have more talent on hand right now and have the continuity in the coaching staff that the Gamecocks don't right now. If the Cocks do win a road game it probably will be at Arkansas but that's not an easy task by any means. It's also a brutal scheduling spot, off a game at Tennessee and with *Florida* on deck....
5 Wins is +800 at Olympic and that looks pretty good. 3 or 4 wins can be had at +2500. 6 wins is probably the best he can do IMO and that's +200. So let's structure the bet (200 max) like this:
$200 @ 5 wins +800 (+1300)
$200 @ 6 wins +200 (+100)
$100 @ 3-4 wins +2500 (+2100)
We don't get hurt (even make a small profit) if he goes 6-5 but we make a nice profit if he wins only 3 through 5 games. 7 wins is +150 and I don't see a lot of value at that price...
All due respect to Spurrier's skills as a coach, but he kind of got the job late in the game in terms of recruiting and it'll probably take at least a year for him to remake the program and particularly the personnel he's got in place. To paraphrase that noted sports handicapper Donald Rumsfeld "you don't go to war with the army you want, you go to war with the army you have" and based on that I see a losing mark in the first year of the Spurrier era. Whether he likes it or not, 2005 will have to be a "rebuilding year" as he tries to work with the personnel on hand against a tough SEC schedule...
JRM/THE PROPHET