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This is my first attempt but it looks like fun so here goes. However, I'd just like to say first that IMO betting pro football can be a very risky business. I don't think that's where the money is to be made because there is a very fine line between the good and not so good teams. Sometimes all it takes is a little lack of motivation by a good team or a stellar effort by a bad team, or just a bad call or bounce of the ball to even things out. Having said that this is what I like this Saturday for just some fun small bets and maybe a parlay or two.
Tampa Bay -3 I'd buy the 1/2 pt to be on the safe side. Atlanta only has 1 win against a winning team out of their 8 total wins. They are only 1-3 ATS on grass TY. Tampa Bay has the #2 defense in the entire NFL and is playing at home a week after getting embarrassed by NE 28-0 which will be extra motivation this week.
Carolina -4.5 Dallas has lost 3 of 4 and has to make their 2nd cross country road trip in a row against a very good home team sporting the leagues 3rd best defense. Steve Smith leads all NFL receivers in receptions, yds and TD's. Dallas has only 1 win on the road vs a quality team and that's when they suprised the Chargers back in game 1. I know alot of people like Dallas here but I don't think so.
Detroit +3 What's up with this? This Todd Bouman character throws 4 INT's last week and fumbles once in his first start and he's favored by 3? In a neutral site? I know the Lions are bad but I don't think they're that bad. I'll go with the more experienced Joey Harrington.
St Louis -9.5 This may be a reach but I like this Ryan Fitzpatrick dude. This is at least worth buying down to -7 on a teaser or something. The 49ers are 0-7 on the road and St Louis has revenge for a previous loss at S.F. The 49ers are bad on the road with losses like 42-3, 31-14, 52-17, 33-22 and 41-3 among them. I read today that S.F. has failed to score even one offensive TD in 8 of their games and are on a pace to their lowest total yds in a year in franchise history.
Seattle -9 Seattle needs this one for home field advantage and will come out fired up. The Colts learned the hard way what happens when you play your regulars with not much at stake against a very motivated team. Against the Chargers last week they were carting players of the field left and right and Manning spent the whole day picking his ass off the carpet. They're lucky he didn't get hurt. Add to that having to travel all the way to the west coast and having to deal with the tragedy that has occured and I don't think you'll see the real Colts this week. Maybe next week. This one's definitely good for -7 I would think. No Manning, no James, no Harrison, half of their defensive starters on the bench = no way.
Denver -13.5 Shanahan hates the Raiders and has owned them with Denver. He will not be embarrassed to run it up. Oakland can't decide on a QB and maybe no Lamont Jordan this week. Denver needs the win for their first division title since 1998 and they have to play the Chargers on the road next week so they better do it today.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it!
Here's some of my 'just for fun' picks.
6.5 pt teaser
Cin-7
Sea-3
Den-7
Pit-1/2
Parlay
Pit-6 (bought 1pt)
Car-2.5 (bought 2pts)
TB-2.5 (bought 1pt)
ML
Sea
Car
Den
Pit
Mia
KC/SD un 52.5 (bought 3 pts)
BTW, did you see the total on the KC/SD game drop from 49.5 last night to 45.5 this morning! 90% chance of snow!
Good luck and I hope I don't embarrass myself too badly.
Tampa Bay -3 I'd buy the 1/2 pt to be on the safe side. Atlanta only has 1 win against a winning team out of their 8 total wins. They are only 1-3 ATS on grass TY. Tampa Bay has the #2 defense in the entire NFL and is playing at home a week after getting embarrassed by NE 28-0 which will be extra motivation this week.
Carolina -4.5 Dallas has lost 3 of 4 and has to make their 2nd cross country road trip in a row against a very good home team sporting the leagues 3rd best defense. Steve Smith leads all NFL receivers in receptions, yds and TD's. Dallas has only 1 win on the road vs a quality team and that's when they suprised the Chargers back in game 1. I know alot of people like Dallas here but I don't think so.
Detroit +3 What's up with this? This Todd Bouman character throws 4 INT's last week and fumbles once in his first start and he's favored by 3? In a neutral site? I know the Lions are bad but I don't think they're that bad. I'll go with the more experienced Joey Harrington.
St Louis -9.5 This may be a reach but I like this Ryan Fitzpatrick dude. This is at least worth buying down to -7 on a teaser or something. The 49ers are 0-7 on the road and St Louis has revenge for a previous loss at S.F. The 49ers are bad on the road with losses like 42-3, 31-14, 52-17, 33-22 and 41-3 among them. I read today that S.F. has failed to score even one offensive TD in 8 of their games and are on a pace to their lowest total yds in a year in franchise history.
Seattle -9 Seattle needs this one for home field advantage and will come out fired up. The Colts learned the hard way what happens when you play your regulars with not much at stake against a very motivated team. Against the Chargers last week they were carting players of the field left and right and Manning spent the whole day picking his ass off the carpet. They're lucky he didn't get hurt. Add to that having to travel all the way to the west coast and having to deal with the tragedy that has occured and I don't think you'll see the real Colts this week. Maybe next week. This one's definitely good for -7 I would think. No Manning, no James, no Harrison, half of their defensive starters on the bench = no way.
Denver -13.5 Shanahan hates the Raiders and has owned them with Denver. He will not be embarrassed to run it up. Oakland can't decide on a QB and maybe no Lamont Jordan this week. Denver needs the win for their first division title since 1998 and they have to play the Chargers on the road next week so they better do it today.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it!
Here's some of my 'just for fun' picks.
6.5 pt teaser
Cin-7
Sea-3
Den-7
Pit-1/2
Parlay
Pit-6 (bought 1pt)
Car-2.5 (bought 2pts)
TB-2.5 (bought 1pt)
ML
Sea
Car
Den
Pit
Mia
KC/SD un 52.5 (bought 3 pts)
BTW, did you see the total on the KC/SD game drop from 49.5 last night to 45.5 this morning! 90% chance of snow!
Good luck and I hope I don't embarrass myself too badly.