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331 Bowling Green +7
The Falcons are off a disastrous home game vs. Kent State in which they did everything wrong. They fell behind early, had to go away from their preferred game plan, and had six turnovers. They had to play this game without their starting QB, Turner, and he's still listed as questionable for this encounter. With or without him, I'm taking BGU here, although I'll feel even better about this play if he can go. But the main reasons for taking the Falcons remain mostly the same regardless of his status. I see BGU as being undervalued off the terrible Saturday showing, and can't see why Ohio is this much chalk. The Bobcats caught Northern Illinois by surprise by throwing the ball, but their offense has returned to its usual inefficient level against Rutgers and Missouri. Granted, those are two solid teams and Ohio wasn't supposed to do well against either team. But the attack was even more feeble than anticipated, and it looks to me like the NIU explosion was nothing more than a one game abberation. There's a strong fundamental here, as Bowling Green wants to run the ball and should have a good degree of success doing so. Ohio hasn't shown any ability to run the ball. I always like the idea of taking points with the team that has the clearly superior running game and that's the case here. It also doesn't hurt that Bowling Green has totally dominated this series for those who like historical trends. Off the really bad loss and catching a full TD, I'm on Bowling Green.
357 Northern Illinois -6'
Big revenge motive here, as NIU lost 31-17 to this team last year as a 29 point favorite! This is actually a pretty decent angle, as taking road favorites that are in revenge for a game they lost as 3 TD plus home chalk do very well. Northern Illinois has been burning money for its backers this season, particularly thanks to the shocking loss to Ohio. But they thoroughly dominated Buffalo, losing the ATS win on a back door score at the buzzer and looked like the NIU I expected in drubbing a 1-AA team Saturday. The Huskies now have their awesome running game at peak level, and I don't see any MAC team slowing Wolfe and company down. On the flip side, Ball State just isn't very good. They came on to handle Eastern Michigan in their opener, but suffered a devastating one point loss to Indiana, and then got drilled by Purdue. The 38-28 loss to the Boilermakers was completely misleading as they were way down before scoring a pair of garbage time TD's. This past weekend, the Cardinals lost at home to North Dakota State. NIU should really control the clock here, as they will run it all day, which is something Ball State can't do at all. They have 116 net rushing yards in their last three games. Ball State has been very good as a home underdog lately, but this is simply a bad matchup for them. Northern Illinois the better team in better form, and the revenge factor is a solid intangible. I'll lay what I feel is a short number with Northern Illinois.
384 Fresno State -10'
I've seen enough of these two teams to have what I think is a decent handle on them, and I'm going to gamble that Pat Hill has his Bulldogs ready to play here. If they're mentally prepared to put the two losses to Oregon and Washington behind them, this should not be a difficult game, as I think the talent gap is fairly substantial. The fact that Fresno State has had a bye week is meaningful, as that extra time should allow them to get rid of any hangover from the two excruciating losses to the PAC 10 schools. All due respect to Sonny Lubick, who usually manages to get the most out of what he's got at Colorado State (and he's been a very good underdog coach over his career at Fort Collins) but I just don't see this CSU team as being very threatening. The loss of Kyle Bell prior to the season crippled their offense, as they have shown almost no ability to run the ball and their QB isn't dynamic enough to make up the difference. The Rams defense is going to have to keep them in games such as this one. But they were run over at Nevada and unless they've fixed things over their own bye week, they'll have more issues here. I'm mostly banking on Hill getting the Bulldogs primed for a big effort here, and I think the frustration factor on the home team's side is a potential advantage. I'll lay the lumber with Fresno State.
The Falcons are off a disastrous home game vs. Kent State in which they did everything wrong. They fell behind early, had to go away from their preferred game plan, and had six turnovers. They had to play this game without their starting QB, Turner, and he's still listed as questionable for this encounter. With or without him, I'm taking BGU here, although I'll feel even better about this play if he can go. But the main reasons for taking the Falcons remain mostly the same regardless of his status. I see BGU as being undervalued off the terrible Saturday showing, and can't see why Ohio is this much chalk. The Bobcats caught Northern Illinois by surprise by throwing the ball, but their offense has returned to its usual inefficient level against Rutgers and Missouri. Granted, those are two solid teams and Ohio wasn't supposed to do well against either team. But the attack was even more feeble than anticipated, and it looks to me like the NIU explosion was nothing more than a one game abberation. There's a strong fundamental here, as Bowling Green wants to run the ball and should have a good degree of success doing so. Ohio hasn't shown any ability to run the ball. I always like the idea of taking points with the team that has the clearly superior running game and that's the case here. It also doesn't hurt that Bowling Green has totally dominated this series for those who like historical trends. Off the really bad loss and catching a full TD, I'm on Bowling Green.
357 Northern Illinois -6'
Big revenge motive here, as NIU lost 31-17 to this team last year as a 29 point favorite! This is actually a pretty decent angle, as taking road favorites that are in revenge for a game they lost as 3 TD plus home chalk do very well. Northern Illinois has been burning money for its backers this season, particularly thanks to the shocking loss to Ohio. But they thoroughly dominated Buffalo, losing the ATS win on a back door score at the buzzer and looked like the NIU I expected in drubbing a 1-AA team Saturday. The Huskies now have their awesome running game at peak level, and I don't see any MAC team slowing Wolfe and company down. On the flip side, Ball State just isn't very good. They came on to handle Eastern Michigan in their opener, but suffered a devastating one point loss to Indiana, and then got drilled by Purdue. The 38-28 loss to the Boilermakers was completely misleading as they were way down before scoring a pair of garbage time TD's. This past weekend, the Cardinals lost at home to North Dakota State. NIU should really control the clock here, as they will run it all day, which is something Ball State can't do at all. They have 116 net rushing yards in their last three games. Ball State has been very good as a home underdog lately, but this is simply a bad matchup for them. Northern Illinois the better team in better form, and the revenge factor is a solid intangible. I'll lay what I feel is a short number with Northern Illinois.
384 Fresno State -10'
I've seen enough of these two teams to have what I think is a decent handle on them, and I'm going to gamble that Pat Hill has his Bulldogs ready to play here. If they're mentally prepared to put the two losses to Oregon and Washington behind them, this should not be a difficult game, as I think the talent gap is fairly substantial. The fact that Fresno State has had a bye week is meaningful, as that extra time should allow them to get rid of any hangover from the two excruciating losses to the PAC 10 schools. All due respect to Sonny Lubick, who usually manages to get the most out of what he's got at Colorado State (and he's been a very good underdog coach over his career at Fort Collins) but I just don't see this CSU team as being very threatening. The loss of Kyle Bell prior to the season crippled their offense, as they have shown almost no ability to run the ball and their QB isn't dynamic enough to make up the difference. The Rams defense is going to have to keep them in games such as this one. But they were run over at Nevada and unless they've fixed things over their own bye week, they'll have more issues here. I'm mostly banking on Hill getting the Bulldogs primed for a big effort here, and I think the frustration factor on the home team's side is a potential advantage. I'll lay the lumber with Fresno State.