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Just a few thoughts on some games today.
St Louis -2.5 vs Kansas City - The Chiefs just aren't quite the same team on the road as they are at home. They only managed 6 pts and a loss at Denver, 7 pts and a loss at Pittsburgh and at bumbling Arizona had to scramble from behind with 13 4th Q pts to eke out a 3 pt win in a game that almost went to OT. And it's not just this year where they find themselves 1-2 ATS on the road. The Chiefs are only 7-15-1 their last 23 road games so this is a trend that has continued. I just don't see the Rams losing a 3rd game in a row, especially at home where they have played tough this year.
Atlanta -5.5 @ Detroit - The Falcons get a little bit easier foe this week after 3 tough games in a row vs the Giants, Steelers and Bengals. Indoors on the carpet where they are comfortable too. The Lions defense only has 3 INT's for the entire year! That's compared to the 9 that Kitna has thrown. And they've lost 6 fumbles on top of that. The Falcons only have 7 TO's total and have been able to generate 15 for a +8. Atlanta has a very healthy rushing average per game of over 200 which doesn't bode well for the Lions 'D'. If things go true to form , Atlanta will be able to pile up the yardage and Kitna will make enough mistakes to give Atlanta some easy scoring opportunities.
Chicago -13.5 vs Miami - The Bears have won their 4 home games by scores of 34-7, 37-6, 40-7 and 41-10. For Miami, Joey Harrington has 3 TD's and 7 INT's in 3 games since filling in for Culpepper. They have not been able to get the rushing game going as they are only averaging 88 yds per game, which is just slightly more than the Bears are giving up. Probably more of the same today, forcing Harrington to the air where he likes to throw it to the other team (which has resulted in a -5 TO ratio for the team). As a team they have also only generated 8 TO's and only 3 via the INT. This is not good considering the Bears are limiting the opposition to only about 240 total yds per game anyway and have forced a whopping 23 TO's including 14 fumbles! The Bears on 'O' are outscoring the opposition an incredible 221-69. This is a lot of points but......the facts don't lie! Oh, I forgot to mention....Miami is 0-7 ATS this year. The Bears have covered their last 7 regular season home games and 10 of the last 12.
Tampa Bay +1 vs New Orleans - Tampa Bay almost beat the Saints earlier this year, in Gradkowski's first game, if it hadn't been for a Reggie Bush punt return for a TD late in the 4th Q. The Bucs have played well at home lately with just a 2 pt loss to Carolina and close wins against Cincinnati and Philly. The Bucs torched the Saints for almost 200 yds rushing in that last game. I can't see the Saints sweeping the series and I think Tampa will get some revenge.
Minnesota -5 @ San Francisco - The 49er's aren't going to be able to run against the Vikings like they'd like to and I don't think they can pull off what Brady and the Pats did through the air last Monday night. The normally staunch Viking 'D' got lit up bigtime. The 49er's have given up 34 or more points in 5 of their 7 games this year so Minny should be able to do a little better than their modest average here.
San Diego -12.5 vs Cleveland - Cleveland is averaging less than 250 yds of total offense per game with only about 80 of that rushing. They won't be able to run against the Chargers either as they are one of the best at stopping the run. But the Chargers should be able to shred the Browns who give up a healthy 136 per game. Which of course should set up the passing game nicely for the Chargers who are averaging a nice 33.5 pts per game at home and winning by double digits. The Chargers have only turned the ball over 5 times this season compared with the Browns 18!
Sunday Night
Indianapolis +3 @ New England - I'm probably the only one who likes this side. I also had the Colts at Denver last week where they were a similar dog. I'll take the Colts and points anytime. They just shredded a defense that had only given up 2 TD's and an average of 7 pts per game in their first 6 games, a team that held New England to only 7 pts .... a TD late in the 4th Q....in a 17-7 loss in New England.
St Louis -2.5 vs Kansas City - The Chiefs just aren't quite the same team on the road as they are at home. They only managed 6 pts and a loss at Denver, 7 pts and a loss at Pittsburgh and at bumbling Arizona had to scramble from behind with 13 4th Q pts to eke out a 3 pt win in a game that almost went to OT. And it's not just this year where they find themselves 1-2 ATS on the road. The Chiefs are only 7-15-1 their last 23 road games so this is a trend that has continued. I just don't see the Rams losing a 3rd game in a row, especially at home where they have played tough this year.
Atlanta -5.5 @ Detroit - The Falcons get a little bit easier foe this week after 3 tough games in a row vs the Giants, Steelers and Bengals. Indoors on the carpet where they are comfortable too. The Lions defense only has 3 INT's for the entire year! That's compared to the 9 that Kitna has thrown. And they've lost 6 fumbles on top of that. The Falcons only have 7 TO's total and have been able to generate 15 for a +8. Atlanta has a very healthy rushing average per game of over 200 which doesn't bode well for the Lions 'D'. If things go true to form , Atlanta will be able to pile up the yardage and Kitna will make enough mistakes to give Atlanta some easy scoring opportunities.
Chicago -13.5 vs Miami - The Bears have won their 4 home games by scores of 34-7, 37-6, 40-7 and 41-10. For Miami, Joey Harrington has 3 TD's and 7 INT's in 3 games since filling in for Culpepper. They have not been able to get the rushing game going as they are only averaging 88 yds per game, which is just slightly more than the Bears are giving up. Probably more of the same today, forcing Harrington to the air where he likes to throw it to the other team (which has resulted in a -5 TO ratio for the team). As a team they have also only generated 8 TO's and only 3 via the INT. This is not good considering the Bears are limiting the opposition to only about 240 total yds per game anyway and have forced a whopping 23 TO's including 14 fumbles! The Bears on 'O' are outscoring the opposition an incredible 221-69. This is a lot of points but......the facts don't lie! Oh, I forgot to mention....Miami is 0-7 ATS this year. The Bears have covered their last 7 regular season home games and 10 of the last 12.
Tampa Bay +1 vs New Orleans - Tampa Bay almost beat the Saints earlier this year, in Gradkowski's first game, if it hadn't been for a Reggie Bush punt return for a TD late in the 4th Q. The Bucs have played well at home lately with just a 2 pt loss to Carolina and close wins against Cincinnati and Philly. The Bucs torched the Saints for almost 200 yds rushing in that last game. I can't see the Saints sweeping the series and I think Tampa will get some revenge.
Minnesota -5 @ San Francisco - The 49er's aren't going to be able to run against the Vikings like they'd like to and I don't think they can pull off what Brady and the Pats did through the air last Monday night. The normally staunch Viking 'D' got lit up bigtime. The 49er's have given up 34 or more points in 5 of their 7 games this year so Minny should be able to do a little better than their modest average here.
San Diego -12.5 vs Cleveland - Cleveland is averaging less than 250 yds of total offense per game with only about 80 of that rushing. They won't be able to run against the Chargers either as they are one of the best at stopping the run. But the Chargers should be able to shred the Browns who give up a healthy 136 per game. Which of course should set up the passing game nicely for the Chargers who are averaging a nice 33.5 pts per game at home and winning by double digits. The Chargers have only turned the ball over 5 times this season compared with the Browns 18!
Sunday Night
Indianapolis +3 @ New England - I'm probably the only one who likes this side. I also had the Colts at Denver last week where they were a similar dog. I'll take the Colts and points anytime. They just shredded a defense that had only given up 2 TD's and an average of 7 pts per game in their first 6 games, a team that held New England to only 7 pts .... a TD late in the 4th Q....in a 17-7 loss in New England.