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So who knows what sort of system this Big Daddy Matthews or Billy Walters used or uses to beat the books? I can't imagine a trend system winning consistently. Or does he rely on inside information? Or just superior scouting and research?
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Ummm i dont know anything about this could you tell me more about this guy.
jpehl -
Widestrides -Back in the late 90's thru the early 2000's, the time period that the book takes place, a computer program was used. The program, used an algorithim that was continually tweaked.
It was the same program/algorithim the computer group use as he was a member of the original group.
The program was able to simulate a game millions of times and come up with a line that was stronger than the one being put out by the books.
These days, I'm sure the program is still around, as I'm sure there are other programs that have been created by by the math/programming gurus that are even better.
He also uses a stable of handicappers as well, for both College hoops and football.
If you ever go to check some college hoops lines, and then go back and check and notice some games have just moved 2 points, there's a good chance it was him doing the damage.....
You also mention info, scouting and research......yeah, his network of information is quite extensive. If a key player isn't playing, there's a good chance he knows about it long before it shows up on all the live odds feeds.Comment
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Thanks for the background Jeff. So he used some sort of a simulation program. Interesting. I like the validity of that more than some crazy, irrelevant, outdated, trivial trend.
jpehl, we are referring to this posting:
http://www.bettorsworld.com/konik.htm
HOW THE WORLD'S BEST SPORTS BETTORSBEAT THE BOOKIES OUT OF MILLIONS
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It's pretty safe to say that there are no "systems" or "trends" that will ever win long term.
However, if you can make abetter line than the oddsmakers, you will have a long term advantage and will show a profit.
There was a group called the "poker players" that destroyed baseball during this same time period. You guys that watch poker on tv or follow professional poker have probably heard of some of these guys for their poker ability......Chip Reese is/was one of the group.
At any rate, they used a simulation program as well.
Keep in mind, these programs were built by MIT grad types, they aren't commercially available and their algorithims are guarded with major secrecy.
But simulations are the way to go if you have the ability, or connections to come up with one.
I actually used a simulation program for baseball a couple of years ago with very good results.
Baseball is the perfect sport to use simulations with.You're able to plug in each players stats at each postion, and then let them play out over thousands of games.
Those of you that follow baseball know that players tend to play to their averages. A .300 hitter will probably hit .290 - .310. There's exceptions of course, but baseball simulatuions can be very accuarate.
Play a game thousands of time. One team beats the other in this game 60% of the time, then your line on the game is -150. If the books have -110, you have a 40 cent edge which should play out to your favor over the long run.
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I agree. Baseball is a game you can beat with strict discipline and money management especially with totals. I am not sure why the public doesn't play baseball more given that there is no spread. I was in a school project once to predict outcomes of games using statistical variances based solely on pitchers and the number of pitches and the results after two months showed a 59% predicted winner. But remember this was only for a couple of months and before I got into playing games.Comment
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Remember too, that you predicted 59% but I'm guessing that's straight up winners with no price attached. If you picked the 59% winners and were only laying an average of, say, -120, you'd have some profits.
But yeah, baseball is a great sport for simulation and statistical approaches because there are so many games to use in your database, and so much history in baseball.
You still have to contend with changes such as the league juicing up the ball, and things of that nature (steroids), but there are still plenty of stats within any given time frame to get some accurate results.
Some very sharp people have spent an incredible amount of time coming up with formulas using different stats to predict how a batter will perform against a certain pitcher, how a pitcher will perform against a line up, what stats matter, etc.etc.
There is a whole sub culture out there that does this, but not for betting purposes. They are into simulations and playing make believe games between great teams of the past. They like to see how Babe Ruth would have done against todays teams, and so on.
But the astute bettor can capitilize on all of this.
Look up Sabermetrics and Bill James for more info......Comment
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my system relies solely on making a line and comparing to the posted line. What is interesting is that the longer the season goes on, the closer the lines have become. in fact, this week, there are very few plays, and those are only 2 or 3 star rated.
Even better, I know that no one else anywhere uses my system because I created it. For good or bad.Comment
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this is very interesting stuffComment
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