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As we head down the stretch, let's see if we can separate the contenders from the pretenders in the NFL. We'll attempt to do so, using the Yards Per Point stat that we so often refer to here on Bettorsworld. YPP can give you a quick snapshot of a teams over all performance and can be very predictive. More so than traditional stats you may hear on TV. For example, an announcer may say one team has the number one ranked offense in the NFL, based on yardage. However, that means very little if the team can't punch it in once they get in the red zone.
So let's take a look at some current YPP numbers and see what they tells us. Please keep in mind, these stats are season to date. For an even clearer picture, you should break down the YPP stat even further. Take the last 4-6 games and figure it, as well as breaking it down into home and away.
Let's start with the AFC.
AFC Offensive numbers
SD - 11.5
BAL 14.2
IND 14.2
CIN 14.2
JAX 14.8
NE 14.9
JETS 15.2
DEN 17
The Chargers clearly lead the pack offensively. 11.5 means the Chargers score 1 point for every 11.5 yards gained. There's not much difference between Bal at 14.2 and the Jets at 15.2. So offensively, throw out the Broncos. We simply don't see teams with a 17 winning or even getting to Super Bowls.
Now the AFC defensive rankings.
NE 21.3
DEN 20.2
BAL 20.1
JAX 19.2
CIN 17.9
JETS 17.7
IND 15.5
SD 14.8
Defense still wins championships, even in the 2006-2007 version of the NFL. In 20+ years of using this stat in our handicapping process, We have rarely seen a team go all the way that isn't towards the top of the defensive YPP column. The Jets 17.7 is a good number. So anything above 17.7 here is a good defense. How ironic that the two teams at the top of most peoples lists, the Chargers and the Colts, are at the bottom defensively of all the contenders. We already threw out Denver because they can't score. It's probably safe to throw out the Jets as well. Notice the Ravens quietly at the top of both offensive and defensive categories. Aside from San Diego, offensively, all the "contenders" are in the 14 range, so not much separating them offensively, so we'll fall back on the defensive numbers. Looks like Baltimore and the Pats will be dangerous come playoff time. The Colts and Chargers are far from locks.
Let's look at the wide open, mediocre NFC
Offense
Bears 11.7
Dallas 13.6
Sea 14.1
NYG 15.3
NO 15.5
Phil 15.7
STL 16.9
Car 17.4
Atl 18.1
Now, of course, the Bears do not have the number one offense in the NFL. But the YPP gives you the big picture. The Bears rank number one here, because their DEFENSE scores points. Their defense is contributing to the offensive numbers. So the 11.7 is still a valid number. It doesn't matter who is putting the ball in the end zone, as long as it gets there somehow. So in the NFC, based on offensive numbers, we're going to throw out everyone from the Saints on down. We're throwing out the Saints because, even though they are 8-4, they are dead LAST of all the contenders in turnovers at -6. Super Bowl teams do NOT turn the ball over.
NFC Defense
Bears 21.6
Panthers 16.8
Atl 16.5
Dal 15.9
NYG 15.2
NO 15
Sea 14.9
Phil 14.8
Stl 14.3
We already threw out most of the NFC based on their offense and turnovers. That leaves us with -
Bears
Dallas
Giants
Seattle
In the AFC, we still have -
NE
Bal
Jax
Cinci
Ind
SD
So what does all of this mean?????
Well, teams like The Giants, Jax and Cinci have put themselves behind the 8 ball. They have to win out from here, and even then, would be faced with tough road playoff games in all likelihood. So we'll toss them.
Were now left with -
Bears, Dallas and Seattle in the NFC and NE, BAL, Ind and SD in the AFC.
The NFC looks like a Cowboys at Bears title game is shaping up. The Bears lack offensively, but a playoff game in January at Soldier field with the weather cooperating (cold, wind, snow) will go a long ways towards evening out the playing field. Under those weather conditions, I'd love to see this game.
The AFC looks tougher to predict. Based strictly on the Yards per point stat, it looks like the two front runners are the Pats and Ravens and not the Chargers and Colts as the odds would suggest.
Another general rule of thumb, is that you need a good QB to make a Super Bowl run. Sure, there have been a couple of teams that have gone on to win Super Bowls without a star QB.......Trent Dilfer comes to mind. But by and large, you need a QB.
That QB rule doesn't bode well for the Bears, eh?. But in the AFC, All four of our remaining contenders have the goods. Manning, Brady, Mcnair and the new kid on the block, Rivers.
Tough call in that AFC. Just taking a step back and making a guess from a fans perspective, I kind of feel as though the Colts will be a tough out in the playoffs. As long as they are at home, they should be able to beat any of the others. While the YPP numbers don't show it, and while the Colts defense leaves allot to be desired, you just have the feeling that Manning and company will pull it out as long as they have the ball last.
But as far as picking one of these AFC teams to meet the Bears or Cowboys in the Super Bowl........we need another week : )
Oh, and again, keep in mind the turnovers. Just as you don't see many mediocre defenses winning championships, you also never see a team that's minus in the turnover category. Makes sense huh? Make fewer mistakes and you win ball games.
In the NFC the Bears are +10 while the Cowboys are +7. So both are strong.
In the AFC, the leader of the pack is the Ravens at +14. They lead the entire NFL. The Chargers are number 2 at +11, followed by the Colts at +8 and the Pats at +3.
Check in next week and we'll see if we can't narrow this down a tad more.
.
So let's take a look at some current YPP numbers and see what they tells us. Please keep in mind, these stats are season to date. For an even clearer picture, you should break down the YPP stat even further. Take the last 4-6 games and figure it, as well as breaking it down into home and away.
Let's start with the AFC.
AFC Offensive numbers
SD - 11.5
BAL 14.2
IND 14.2
CIN 14.2
JAX 14.8
NE 14.9
JETS 15.2
DEN 17
The Chargers clearly lead the pack offensively. 11.5 means the Chargers score 1 point for every 11.5 yards gained. There's not much difference between Bal at 14.2 and the Jets at 15.2. So offensively, throw out the Broncos. We simply don't see teams with a 17 winning or even getting to Super Bowls.
Now the AFC defensive rankings.
NE 21.3
DEN 20.2
BAL 20.1
JAX 19.2
CIN 17.9
JETS 17.7
IND 15.5
SD 14.8
Defense still wins championships, even in the 2006-2007 version of the NFL. In 20+ years of using this stat in our handicapping process, We have rarely seen a team go all the way that isn't towards the top of the defensive YPP column. The Jets 17.7 is a good number. So anything above 17.7 here is a good defense. How ironic that the two teams at the top of most peoples lists, the Chargers and the Colts, are at the bottom defensively of all the contenders. We already threw out Denver because they can't score. It's probably safe to throw out the Jets as well. Notice the Ravens quietly at the top of both offensive and defensive categories. Aside from San Diego, offensively, all the "contenders" are in the 14 range, so not much separating them offensively, so we'll fall back on the defensive numbers. Looks like Baltimore and the Pats will be dangerous come playoff time. The Colts and Chargers are far from locks.
Let's look at the wide open, mediocre NFC
Offense
Bears 11.7
Dallas 13.6
Sea 14.1
NYG 15.3
NO 15.5
Phil 15.7
STL 16.9
Car 17.4
Atl 18.1
Now, of course, the Bears do not have the number one offense in the NFL. But the YPP gives you the big picture. The Bears rank number one here, because their DEFENSE scores points. Their defense is contributing to the offensive numbers. So the 11.7 is still a valid number. It doesn't matter who is putting the ball in the end zone, as long as it gets there somehow. So in the NFC, based on offensive numbers, we're going to throw out everyone from the Saints on down. We're throwing out the Saints because, even though they are 8-4, they are dead LAST of all the contenders in turnovers at -6. Super Bowl teams do NOT turn the ball over.
NFC Defense
Bears 21.6
Panthers 16.8
Atl 16.5
Dal 15.9
NYG 15.2
NO 15
Sea 14.9
Phil 14.8
Stl 14.3
We already threw out most of the NFC based on their offense and turnovers. That leaves us with -
Bears
Dallas
Giants
Seattle
In the AFC, we still have -
NE
Bal
Jax
Cinci
Ind
SD
So what does all of this mean?????
Well, teams like The Giants, Jax and Cinci have put themselves behind the 8 ball. They have to win out from here, and even then, would be faced with tough road playoff games in all likelihood. So we'll toss them.
Were now left with -
Bears, Dallas and Seattle in the NFC and NE, BAL, Ind and SD in the AFC.
The NFC looks like a Cowboys at Bears title game is shaping up. The Bears lack offensively, but a playoff game in January at Soldier field with the weather cooperating (cold, wind, snow) will go a long ways towards evening out the playing field. Under those weather conditions, I'd love to see this game.
The AFC looks tougher to predict. Based strictly on the Yards per point stat, it looks like the two front runners are the Pats and Ravens and not the Chargers and Colts as the odds would suggest.
Another general rule of thumb, is that you need a good QB to make a Super Bowl run. Sure, there have been a couple of teams that have gone on to win Super Bowls without a star QB.......Trent Dilfer comes to mind. But by and large, you need a QB.
That QB rule doesn't bode well for the Bears, eh?. But in the AFC, All four of our remaining contenders have the goods. Manning, Brady, Mcnair and the new kid on the block, Rivers.
Tough call in that AFC. Just taking a step back and making a guess from a fans perspective, I kind of feel as though the Colts will be a tough out in the playoffs. As long as they are at home, they should be able to beat any of the others. While the YPP numbers don't show it, and while the Colts defense leaves allot to be desired, you just have the feeling that Manning and company will pull it out as long as they have the ball last.
But as far as picking one of these AFC teams to meet the Bears or Cowboys in the Super Bowl........we need another week : )
Oh, and again, keep in mind the turnovers. Just as you don't see many mediocre defenses winning championships, you also never see a team that's minus in the turnover category. Makes sense huh? Make fewer mistakes and you win ball games.
In the NFC the Bears are +10 while the Cowboys are +7. So both are strong.
In the AFC, the leader of the pack is the Ravens at +14. They lead the entire NFL. The Chargers are number 2 at +11, followed by the Colts at +8 and the Pats at +3.
Check in next week and we'll see if we can't narrow this down a tad more.
.
But I may have to change my Super Bowl picks to San Diego vs New Orleans 
To show you what a nice guy I am I'll change my pick for you...... Chargers vs Dallas 
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