Tweet
I dont have a strong opinion either way on this game but it is the Super Bowl and betting makes the game so more interesting. Shown below is an informative article from another site that will may help in making a decision. Right now Im leaning at taking a special point spread here in Reno at the Bears+3 ½ (+140).
The Case for Chicago
Lost only 2 games this season by more than 7 points including meaningless game 16
Played virtually even with Colts against common foes. Here's a look at how both teams did against these common opponents.
Chicago was just 3-2, defeating the Giants, Jets and Buffalo while losing to both New England (by 4) and to Miami (by 18). The loss to Miami ended their unbeaten season after 7 straight wins. Chicago was 4-1 ATS as they did cover in the loss at New England.
Indianapolis won all 6 games against these common foes but was just 3-3 ATS. HOWEVER -- and it's a MAJOR however -- the 6 wins were all by narrow margins -- winning by 5, 3, 7, 1, 5 and 4 points. In other words, laying the current Super Bowl line of minus 7 to these common foes would have resulted in an 0-5-1 ATS record against these common foes.
In these games Chicago outgained 3 of the 5 foes and was outgained by just 6 yards in the loss to Miami. Indianapolis outgained 5 of the 6 foes. In the one game in which they were outgained, the Giants gained 106 more yards than did Indy in their season opening contest. Against New England the Colts outgained the Pats by just 5 yards in their regular season meeting before outgaining them by 136 yards in their Playoff win.
The rushing statistics were especially revealing and clearly favor the Bears. Chicago outrushed the five common foes by an average of 140-112. Indianapolis was outrushed by an average of 110-137.
The Bears' averaged 22.8 points in their 5 games while allowing an average of just 15.0 for a margin of plus 7.8. Indianapolis averaged 27.6 ppg while allowing 23.5 for a margin of just plus 4.1 per game. Both teams averaged nearly similar total yardage edges of just over 55 yards per game.
Significant edges on defense and special teams
QB Rex Grossman had 7 games with a QB Rating above 100, the same number as Manning
Overall Statistics show this game to be dead even
From a purely statistical standpoint a convincing case can be made that not only is Chicago capable of winning this game straight up, but that the Bears should actually be the favorite! Yep. Across the board, in most statistical categories, Chicago has the edge in the numbers, especially on defense and special teams. And Indianapolis' edge on offense is not as great as is perceived.
The Case for Indianapolis
Played a tougher schedule in the better AFC
QB Peyton Manning and K Adam Vinatieri - the best at their positions in the game today
Vastly improved rush defense in Playoffs
Overall edge on offense especially their "Hurry Up" attack that limits' defenses' ability to substitute for down and distance situations.
A major concern for the Bears is whether they will be able to handle the Colts' "quick snap" offense that gave New England fits in the AFC Championship game. Unable to make the needed defensive substitutions clearly hurt the Patriots and allowed the Colts to overcome a 21-3 deficit.
Won 8 of 12 games in which they were outrushed
The Case AGAINST Chicago
Played a significantly overall weaker schedule than the Colts
QB Rex Grossman had 5 games with a QB Rating below 40; Manning had just 1
Defensive stats were much better over the first half of the season than down the stretch
The Case AGAINST Indianapolis
Did not win any of 6 games against common foes by more than 7 points and won only 6 such games all season against all foes
Allowed an average of 173 rushing yards per game in regular season, allowing over 100 in every game
Offense struggled in first halves of all 3 Playoff games
The Case for Chicago
Lost only 2 games this season by more than 7 points including meaningless game 16
Played virtually even with Colts against common foes. Here's a look at how both teams did against these common opponents.
Chicago was just 3-2, defeating the Giants, Jets and Buffalo while losing to both New England (by 4) and to Miami (by 18). The loss to Miami ended their unbeaten season after 7 straight wins. Chicago was 4-1 ATS as they did cover in the loss at New England.
Indianapolis won all 6 games against these common foes but was just 3-3 ATS. HOWEVER -- and it's a MAJOR however -- the 6 wins were all by narrow margins -- winning by 5, 3, 7, 1, 5 and 4 points. In other words, laying the current Super Bowl line of minus 7 to these common foes would have resulted in an 0-5-1 ATS record against these common foes.
In these games Chicago outgained 3 of the 5 foes and was outgained by just 6 yards in the loss to Miami. Indianapolis outgained 5 of the 6 foes. In the one game in which they were outgained, the Giants gained 106 more yards than did Indy in their season opening contest. Against New England the Colts outgained the Pats by just 5 yards in their regular season meeting before outgaining them by 136 yards in their Playoff win.
The rushing statistics were especially revealing and clearly favor the Bears. Chicago outrushed the five common foes by an average of 140-112. Indianapolis was outrushed by an average of 110-137.
The Bears' averaged 22.8 points in their 5 games while allowing an average of just 15.0 for a margin of plus 7.8. Indianapolis averaged 27.6 ppg while allowing 23.5 for a margin of just plus 4.1 per game. Both teams averaged nearly similar total yardage edges of just over 55 yards per game.
Significant edges on defense and special teams
QB Rex Grossman had 7 games with a QB Rating above 100, the same number as Manning
Overall Statistics show this game to be dead even
From a purely statistical standpoint a convincing case can be made that not only is Chicago capable of winning this game straight up, but that the Bears should actually be the favorite! Yep. Across the board, in most statistical categories, Chicago has the edge in the numbers, especially on defense and special teams. And Indianapolis' edge on offense is not as great as is perceived.
The Case for Indianapolis
Played a tougher schedule in the better AFC
QB Peyton Manning and K Adam Vinatieri - the best at their positions in the game today
Vastly improved rush defense in Playoffs
Overall edge on offense especially their "Hurry Up" attack that limits' defenses' ability to substitute for down and distance situations.
A major concern for the Bears is whether they will be able to handle the Colts' "quick snap" offense that gave New England fits in the AFC Championship game. Unable to make the needed defensive substitutions clearly hurt the Patriots and allowed the Colts to overcome a 21-3 deficit.
Won 8 of 12 games in which they were outrushed
The Case AGAINST Chicago
Played a significantly overall weaker schedule than the Colts
QB Rex Grossman had 5 games with a QB Rating below 40; Manning had just 1
Defensive stats were much better over the first half of the season than down the stretch
The Case AGAINST Indianapolis
Did not win any of 6 games against common foes by more than 7 points and won only 6 such games all season against all foes
Allowed an average of 173 rushing yards per game in regular season, allowing over 100 in every game
Offense struggled in first halves of all 3 Playoff games
Comment