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Boy, the 2 weeks went by quick this year it seems. Maybe because I don't watch TV or read the paper anymore. I am on the internet a lot, so I do read a bit, but this year I have stayed away from any hype.
I've seen it written many times that in the majority of cases in the NFL, if you can pick the outright, or SU, winner you will also pick the ATS winner. I think it works out that way in over 65% of the cases anyway. Here's a few interesting facts that I picked up from various sources.
33 SB's have had one team win the turnover margin. The team that gets more turnovers has gone 30-3 SU (the other games had an 'even' TO ratio). This stat has evidently been more influential than every other stat except one......QB rating. The team with the highest QB rating in the SB has gone 40-2 SU. You can't really just look at the regular season, though, without taking into consideration that the Cards played the 22nd toughest schedule and Pittsburgh played the 4th toughest. Plus the Cards played their home games where weather is not a factor (as well as several of their road games).
Back to TO margin....during the regular season and playoffs this year, Arizona and Pittsburgh have combined to go 24-1 SU and 20-5 ATS when they win or tie the TO margin.
When the Cards commit 2 TO's or more, they have gone just 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS. When the Steelers commit 2 or fewer TO's, they were 14-0 SU and 11-3 ATS.
So it appears that the Cards are in trouble turning the ball over twice, but the Steelers aren't really in trouble until they've turned it over 3 times. Considering Warner's propensity to turn the ball over under pressure, Pittsburgh's stellar pass rush and secondary and the fact that Arizona led the NFL in fumbles lost this year, I would have to say that the possibility of Arizona having 2 or more TO's is pretty good. Warner should be putting it in the air a lot as they likely won't have much of a running game going. And especially if Pittsburgh gets a lead. And I just can't see Pittsburgh not taking care of the ball well enough to have more than 2 themselves.
As for QB rating, Big Ben will be facing one of the 'easier' defenses he's faced this year and Warner will likely be facing his toughest.
I've seen it written many times that in the majority of cases in the NFL, if you can pick the outright, or SU, winner you will also pick the ATS winner. I think it works out that way in over 65% of the cases anyway. Here's a few interesting facts that I picked up from various sources.
33 SB's have had one team win the turnover margin. The team that gets more turnovers has gone 30-3 SU (the other games had an 'even' TO ratio). This stat has evidently been more influential than every other stat except one......QB rating. The team with the highest QB rating in the SB has gone 40-2 SU. You can't really just look at the regular season, though, without taking into consideration that the Cards played the 22nd toughest schedule and Pittsburgh played the 4th toughest. Plus the Cards played their home games where weather is not a factor (as well as several of their road games).
Back to TO margin....during the regular season and playoffs this year, Arizona and Pittsburgh have combined to go 24-1 SU and 20-5 ATS when they win or tie the TO margin.
When the Cards commit 2 TO's or more, they have gone just 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS. When the Steelers commit 2 or fewer TO's, they were 14-0 SU and 11-3 ATS.
So it appears that the Cards are in trouble turning the ball over twice, but the Steelers aren't really in trouble until they've turned it over 3 times. Considering Warner's propensity to turn the ball over under pressure, Pittsburgh's stellar pass rush and secondary and the fact that Arizona led the NFL in fumbles lost this year, I would have to say that the possibility of Arizona having 2 or more TO's is pretty good. Warner should be putting it in the air a lot as they likely won't have much of a running game going. And especially if Pittsburgh gets a lead. And I just can't see Pittsburgh not taking care of the ball well enough to have more than 2 themselves.
As for QB rating, Big Ben will be facing one of the 'easier' defenses he's faced this year and Warner will likely be facing his toughest.
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