Tweet
I developed my own system (Formula) for handicapping with zero bias on my part. Excell spread sheet capturing the last 14 games, weighted towards most recent to the further games played. Takes about 2 hours to calculate weekly and the formula includes poins scored/against / rushing yardage / passing yardage (OFF/DEF Allowed); Turnovers; Missed FG's; Penelties; Time of Possession. Strength of Schedule is (Huge) in calculating my formula. I develop a power rating for each team. I also have a formula for the visiting/home team (Miles traveled, coming off a bye, back to back home or back to back road games).
I developed an injury formula but that takes 2+ hours to figure and a bias in the system to put a point value on a players injury...so I don't calculate at this time.
I have had some success with my picks, but this year a step back on my top pick of the week. My top 5 picks are doing well (37-27-1), but my best of rest is lacking badly. The best of rest nomally means my line and Vegas are very close and have come short on the coin flip.
5 Star pick is when my line is 10 points different then Vegas.
Top 5 Picks LV Line Dingers Line (+/- Diff)
4* Atl -6 -6 -14 8
3* Oak -8 -8 -14.5 6.5
2* Pit -4 -4 -8.5 4.5
1* Cin 0 -0 Cin -3.5 3.5
1* Mia -5.5 -5.5 -8.5 3
Best of Rest
HOU +1.5 TEN -1.5 HOU -.5 2
IND -4 -4 -6.5 2.5
CAR -2.5 -2.5 -5 2.5
NYG -3 -3 -5.5 2.5
DAL -9 -9 -10.5 1.5
DET +4 TB -4 TB -2 2
NO +2 BAL -2 NO -.5 2.5
Injury games to stay away from.
gb/ne
chi/min
kc/sf
A little late pic
4* SD -9.5 -9.5 -18 9.5
Sorry been busy at work 55+ hours to post earlier. Just calculated pick.
I developed an injury formula but that takes 2+ hours to figure and a bias in the system to put a point value on a players injury...so I don't calculate at this time.
I have had some success with my picks, but this year a step back on my top pick of the week. My top 5 picks are doing well (37-27-1), but my best of rest is lacking badly. The best of rest nomally means my line and Vegas are very close and have come short on the coin flip.
5 Star pick is when my line is 10 points different then Vegas.
Top 5 Picks LV Line Dingers Line (+/- Diff)
4* Atl -6 -6 -14 8
3* Oak -8 -8 -14.5 6.5
2* Pit -4 -4 -8.5 4.5
1* Cin 0 -0 Cin -3.5 3.5
1* Mia -5.5 -5.5 -8.5 3
Best of Rest
HOU +1.5 TEN -1.5 HOU -.5 2
IND -4 -4 -6.5 2.5
CAR -2.5 -2.5 -5 2.5
NYG -3 -3 -5.5 2.5
DAL -9 -9 -10.5 1.5
DET +4 TB -4 TB -2 2
NO +2 BAL -2 NO -.5 2.5
Injury games to stay away from.
gb/ne
chi/min
kc/sf
A little late pic
4* SD -9.5 -9.5 -18 9.5
Sorry been busy at work 55+ hours to post earlier. Just calculated pick.
Comment