NFL Championship Weekend........."Discussion Thread"

[The Boys]

I'll start it off with a total:

Green Bay @ Chicago Under 44 (Bodog)

GREEN BAY: 8-2 UNDER in last 10 road games
CHICAGO: 6-0 Under vs. Green Bay

[resteasy]

certainly a tough weekend.
looking at the other game the steelers-jets have only scored more than 38.5 pts against each other once and that was 39 this season. They are 3-3 straight up since '01.
jets are 1-4 straight up @pitt since 2001.

[Taxman]

I'm falling in love with the Under 44 GB/CHI. Both games were low scoring. Bears' version of Tampa 2 is not allowing the big play. I think it's going to be a smash mouth game. I just can't see a 24-21 game. But there's a reason the line is set so high....

[woodee12]

I agree...Of the possible plays, I see that under being the best. Chicago will be successful running the ball and thorwing when needed not all the time. And Chicago's D can contain Rodgers a little more than ATL did too. I thought it would be set at 39-40 myself.

[red raider 84]

Not that my 7-11 record in the NFL should chime in, but you really got to love the way the Jet corners are playing. I agree with Reteasy, tough picking but should be some great games too watch.

[xbigpappa]

Turnovers and Returns by Hester could "sink" the under. If the Under is a VERY public play, I would stay away

[woodee12]

Yeah, I am rethinking that under actually...Hester could score 14 himself. May wait to see what the weather is doing too although both teams can play in the cold, crappy conditions well. Great game hopefully.

[woodee12]

I am liking the under in the Jets-Steelers more right now. I don't see many big plays happening and everyone knows Brad Smith can return the ball so they will contain him as much as possible.

Sanchez sucks in my eyes and cannot throw if needed so they will pound the ball with LT and Shon Green.

Pitts can run it well too and don't take too many shots down field really as Rothlesburger is one of the smarter QB's out there (on the field not in the bars with co-eds).

So overall my picks in order for the weekend:

Jets-Steelers UNDER 38.5
Bears +3.5
Pitts -3.5 (like the ML best so may parlay it somehow with a hoops game or something)
Bears-Pack UNDER 44

One of these games will be decided by a 1/2 point, just don't know which?

Thoughts by the "good" NFL cappers around here..i am not one of them!

[dragon1952]

Here are my picks.
Chicago +3.5 - The Bears are 8-2 SU since their bye week with 1 of the losses coming at Green Bay in Week 17 with the #2 seed already sewn up. Even though Chicago played their starters the Bears could not improve their seeding while it was a must win for Green Bay. Still, the Packers scored just 10 pts. This appears to have the makings of a fairly low scoring game. All 4 previous meetings between Cutler and Rodgers have seen totals of 37 pts. or less and winning margins of 7 pts or less. If Green Bay wins they would be just the 4th team in history to win 3 consecutive road playoff games, and the 1st NFC #6 seed to reach the SB. Green Bay was just 3-5 on the road during the regular season while Chicago was 5-3 at home, but 2 of those losses were by just 3 pts each, in Weeks 6 and 7, and with both LB Lance Briggs and OG Roberto Garza out with injuries. Garza missed both games, and the reshuffled OL gave up 10 sacks in his absence. Briggs missed Week 6 and had to leave the Week 7 game early opening the door for Ryan Torain to rush for 125 yds in a 3 pt Redskin win. With everyone healthy the Bears have lost just one meaningful game in their last 10.
Chicago 20 - Green Bay 17

Pittsburgh -3.5 Pittsburgh has so much experience in these games and I can't see them losing to the same team twice at home. In that last match-up, the Steelers out-yarded the Jets 378-276, out-first downed them 25-17 and ran 15 more offensive plays plus the defense held the Jet's offense to just 13 pts, but they gave up a 97 yd kickoff return and a safety to lose by 5. The Steelers were also without S Troy Polamalu for that game. In case you haven't seen this stat, the Steelers give up an average of nearly 10 pts more per game without Polamalu in the line-up. Also, with Polamalu they average 1.7 INT's per game, and without him they average just 0.1 INT's per game. If the Jets were to beat the Steelers, they would be just the second #6 AFC seed to reach the Super Bowl since 1990.
Pittsburgh 24 - NY Jets 13

[dragon1952]

I was writing and researching that post while you were posting so I didn't see yours first. It looks like we agree on everything though! I don't know if that's good or bad.

[Dinger]

It's good to be on the same side as the Dragon. Taking the Bears and Steelers.

[Taxman]

Here is my kiss of death bet.

I have some 'house money'. So, it's going to be an all or nothing play.

This is my trip to Dallas to attend the 'Super Bowl' parlay (no I'm not going for a Plaza ticket either!)

Bears ML + Jets ML

C'mon, one time! Bears/Jets Super Bowl!

[xbigpappa]

Based on whut I c, Either the Bears or Jets will cover, both favorites will NOT, and you can count on that. Public and Pundits all over the Packers and Steelers. @ Taxman: Ill b in Dallas as well for the SB

[Boone Moone]

Incredibly, I agree with Xbig for probably the first time in history..........I see one of the favorites covering as well.........I really wish I hadn't placed my pick in the contest so early (it doesn't really matter to anyone but J-Pal anyway), because I'm actually starting to like the Steelers to cover more than I do the Pack.

I still think both favorites will win, but one of them will win by a point or two, or maybe even a field goal.

With all due respect to all of the four teams that made it this far, I just think both Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez show their true colors today, and perform similarly to how Joe Flacco and Matty Ryan did last week...........Just don't think either is ready to win the big game yet.........Most of my money will be on the Steelers.

Good Luck fellas.

[widestrides]

I agree with Boone. Both favs will win, but one may not cover.

Gotta give the edge to Rodgers over Cutler and Big Ben over Sanchez.

Packers were all over Cutler in that last game. Cutler was back-peddling and running for his life every time he dropped back to pass. More of the same today. Bears are the luckiest team to get to this Final Four.

But Rodgers is capable of having a flat game in the cold like he did in Week 17 even at home. Bears D will keep it close for awhile, but Cutler will make a fatal mistake or two.

Jets will play conservative and try to let their Defense win it. See if they can get Big Ben to do something stupid, like their first half against Baltimore. Pitt is capable of playing stupid. Big Ben can get careless. But if Pitt plays it smart, their D will just about shutout Sanchez and Big Ben will scramble more than Peyton and Brady were capable of and he'll find one of his 3 or 4 good receivers open for a key TD or big gain.