NFL lines discussion- Week 10

[dragon1952]

In my never ending quest to help my fellow addicts lose their money I will start yet another thread with my obviously square opinions.

Over-reaction lines of the week -
Tennessee +6 @ Miami - The Titans just got blown out by the Chicago Bears by a score of 51-20 but evidently no one remembers their 3 previous games where they beat the Steelers 26-23, beat Buffalo 35-34 on the road and lost to the Colts in OT. And everyone remembers Miami destroying the Jets 30-9 two weeks ago but don't care or forgot that in 5 of their last 6 games the margins of victory were 3, 3, 4, 3 and 3. Just sayin'.
NY Jets +6.5 @ Seattle - The last game the Jets played they got destroyed by Miami 30-9. They were terrible in that game. But no one remembers that in the three games prior to that they lost by just 6 and covered vs the 7-1 Texans, destroyed and covered vs the high-flying Lucks, I mean Colts, 35-9 and lost by just 3 in OT on the road and covered vs the might New England Patriots. Again, just sayin'.

Scary teams to bet on -
Baltimore Ravens -7.5 vs Oakland - This team has one blowout win all season....the opener vs Cincy. Their other 5 wins have been by margins of 1, 7, 3, 2 and by 10 last week at the 2-7 Browns....a game that Cleveland was winning 15-14 with 4:30 min left in the game. In their last 4 games they have averaged just 268 yds of offense per game. Scary.

Value lines of the week -
Detroit -2 @ Minnesota - The Lions appear to finally be coming out of their funk with consecutive wins and covers and Minnesota, after starting 5-2, have now lost both SU and ATS in 2 consecutive games to drop to just 5-4. Detroit also has revenge for the Week 4 loss at home to the Vikes. Ponder has hit the skids the past 2 with 7 sacks and just 1 TD pass to 2 INT's and will likely be without his favorite target, WR Percy Harvin, who is also the NFL's leading KO returner.

Houston +1.5 @ Chicago - Houston is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS on the year. This will be their first game as a dog. They are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS on the road. Both lost to Green Bay, but neither has had an overly difficult schedule. Houston has had a quality road win over Denver, but I can't say Chicago has beat a real quality team, or at least not a team that was playing real well at the time.

Atlanta -2.5 @ New Orleans - Atlanta is undefeated and 6-2 ATS and they are playing the team with the worst defense in the league. The Saints have won 3 of their last 4 games but it was tough going against both Tampa and San Diego who they gave up a combined 940 yds and 7 TD's to. Matt Ryan is averaging 278 ypg passing and has 17 TD's, and a 68.9% completion rate. The Saints are giving up 305 ypg passing and nearly a 65% completion rate and have given up 17 passing TD's.

[widestrides]

Good stuff.

I like Detroit and also thought the lines on the Titans and Seahawks were too high. But not enough to take either of them.

Was kinda leaning Bears and Saints at home. Both teams should be sky-high to knock off the "perceived" better team.

GL

[dragon1952]

Yes, I agree and just to clarify, I am not necessarily picking these teams to cover...just pointing out possible discrepancies in the lines. Anything can happen of course. Miami and Seattle just might cover but those lines are not good lines for them.

[resteasy]

agree on those 2 being high but liking the seabags to cover being at home. Not sure I'll touch it though without a tease.

Baltimore would be scarier if it was away. Don't like that hook one bit but without mcfadden or reese there will be lots of carson palmer in the air and that bodes well for the raven's chances to pick him off. Their D could use the confidence boost being humanly average this year. What the real wager here is the raven's offense. If they do what they did earlier in the year with no huddles and using rice (especially after what martin did) they can win big.
And the cleveland game was close until the end but I chalk that up to divisional.

Like the lions to win and cover. Last time they met it was all special teams and D this time will be different with harvin out and ponder degrading.

Also see the same on the chicago game. Biggest thing is the bear's offense is hit or miss. Cutler seems to be either killing it or bailed out by pick 6's. Houston is the fast turtle of the nfl where if they go down earlier they get buried otherwise it's a relatively slow and steady defense and mostly hard running O. Daniels likely out is a big issue for the texans though. Plus of course playing at soldier field.

Saints Falcons is a tough tough game. I do not believe in the 'due for' games. Will they lose eventually? Yes but I don't wager because of it.
Taking that out it's still a tough game. Saints are trending up and the falcons have had some hard wins. I think this being divisional and against the saints in new orleans will keep this thing really close. Lean saints but hard to ignore that saint's D. Definitely a tough game.

also,
philly opened as 1 point favorites and that quickly ran to being 1.5 dogs. Amazing the linesmakers still gave them points.

[dragon1952]

Playing,
Det -140 ML - Minny won 20-13 in Week 4 but got 14 of their pts on a Harvin KO return and later on a punt return. Detroit out-yarded them 341-227 and out-1st downed them 23-15. Stafford was 30 of 51 for 316 yds and rushed for a TD but got sacked 5 times and didn't throw for a TD.

3-team ML parlay
Denver -210, Tampa -160, Detroit -140 - pays a little over 3 to 1

For fun,
7 team 7 pt teaser - pays $160 on a $20 bet
Ind +3.5 - already won
Den +3
TB +4
Dal +5.5
Atl/NO OV 46.5
NYJ +13
Hou +8

[widestrides]

I like that ML parlay at 3-1. Might tail you on that one. Goes against two home dogs tough so that's always dangerous. But hey, this is a ddangerous occupation to begin with!

GL

[dragon1952]

what? you're not going to play my 7-teamer? sheesh

[resteasy]

looks good man. good luck!
may also tail that parlay small but may add pats ml to it as well.

[woodee12]

My 2 fav plays this week were Houston and Dallas. I stink so far today so I don't feel confident on either one. Dallas just tied it up but it's a sloppy game. Dallas' d is a penalty machine.
On Houston Chicago, I think bad jay cutler shows up tonight and sinks the bears. Thier d is good but the offense faces a thought rest. Texans by 3.

[Carpet]

Big storm bringing heavy winds and rain are going to hit about game time, wind gust to 40 mph.

It will all come down to the run game whatever team wins this key battle will win this game.

The weather has a lot to do with my pick on the Bears, I do not think the Texans have ever faced such adverse conditions and the Bears strive on it.

[woodee12]

Anyone brave enough to take a shot on the chiefs tonight? I think I might if I can get 14. Steelers often play down to thier competition and can see a very bad kc team hanging within the number. Huge % of bets on Pitts too and always like to fade the pubic on mnf.

[Taxman]

I jumped on U41 after the Bears game last night. The weather that was in Chicago should be in Pittsburgh at game time.

Total was at U40 when I last looked this morning.

[resteasy]

I'm seeing this for pittsburgh weather tonight
"Rain ending this evening. Partial clearing overnight. Low 32F. Winds W at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%."

Not sure what time that rain ends but says for the hourly, light rain and dropping to 50% and then 30% during the game.

Haley has said he would like to run up the score on his old team pissed at them for firing and I heard someone mention he may be owed money as well.
KC is 8-1 Over/Under

This may be a big pitt/over tease.

[dragon1952]

Yeah, I played Pit -6 and OV 34 last night. Looks like I could have waited.
KC has lost 5 games by 16 or more and 6 of their 7 losses have been by 10 or more. And the one loss that was close
was vs Baltimore at home and if I remember Baltimore really f*ed up a scoring chance at the very end.
What has really killed KC is turnovers because if you look at their defense they are only giving up around 347 ypg and
they've given up 35 less 1st downs than they've gained. They've turned the ball over 29 times though with 5 TD returns
and the short fields are killing them. And they've only forced 9 TO's for themselves so that's a -20 TO ratio!
Pittsburgh does play down to the level of their competition often it seems, and they've got Baltimore on deck on a
short week and 3 straight divisional games with the Ravens twice in the next 3. But they are tough at home winning
11 of their last 12 there since the start of last year with the lone loss a close one to Baltimore last year. And all but 3
of those wins were by double-digits.
Pittsburgh may just try to get by this week and get a little healthier, but when the other team is dropping the ball in
your lap 3 or 4 times a game you can win big without trying real hard, and the Chiefs have 8 TO's in their last 2 games
with 4 in each. I think it comes down to this......if the Chiefs turn the ball over their usual 3 or 4 times I think the
Steelers win by at least 2 TD's easy. If the Chiefs all of a sudden learn to protect the ball then they can over the 13. But
either way I think the 7 pt teaser is a pretty safe bet. And I think in this venue with this weather it will be very tough
for KC to reverse their trend of turning the ball over. I'll take a wild ass guess and say,
Pit 31
KC 16

[dragon1952]

The total just dropped a full point from 40.5 to 39.5. The weather could be similar to the Chicago game. It's really surprising the 6 TO's in that game didn't equate to many points but there were also at least a couple near INT's that would have gone for 6. I wouldn't necessarily expect the same low score in this game.