In my never ending quest to help my fellow addicts lose their money I will start yet another thread with my obviously square opinions.
Over-reaction lines of the week -
Tennessee +6 @ Miami - The Titans just got blown out by the Chicago Bears by a score of 51-20 but evidently no one remembers their 3 previous games where they beat the Steelers 26-23, beat Buffalo 35-34 on the road and lost to the Colts in OT. And everyone remembers Miami destroying the Jets 30-9 two weeks ago but don't care or forgot that in 5 of their last 6 games the margins of victory were 3, 3, 4, 3 and 3. Just sayin'.
NY Jets +6.5 @ Seattle - The last game the Jets played they got destroyed by Miami 30-9. They were terrible in that game. But no one remembers that in the three games prior to that they lost by just 6 and covered vs the 7-1 Texans, destroyed and covered vs the high-flying Lucks, I mean Colts, 35-9 and lost by just 3 in OT on the road and covered vs the might New England Patriots. Again, just sayin'.
Scary teams to bet on -
Baltimore Ravens -7.5 vs Oakland - This team has one blowout win all season....the opener vs Cincy. Their other 5 wins have been by margins of 1, 7, 3, 2 and by 10 last week at the 2-7 Browns....a game that Cleveland was winning 15-14 with 4:30 min left in the game. In their last 4 games they have averaged just 268 yds of offense per game. Scary.
Value lines of the week -
Detroit -2 @ Minnesota - The Lions appear to finally be coming out of their funk with consecutive wins and covers and Minnesota, after starting 5-2, have now lost both SU and ATS in 2 consecutive games to drop to just 5-4. Detroit also has revenge for the Week 4 loss at home to the Vikes. Ponder has hit the skids the past 2 with 7 sacks and just 1 TD pass to 2 INT's and will likely be without his favorite target, WR Percy Harvin, who is also the NFL's leading KO returner.
Houston +1.5 @ Chicago - Houston is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS on the year. This will be their first game as a dog. They are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS on the road. Both lost to Green Bay, but neither has had an overly difficult schedule. Houston has had a quality road win over Denver, but I can't say Chicago has beat a real quality team, or at least not a team that was playing real well at the time.
Atlanta -2.5 @ New Orleans - Atlanta is undefeated and 6-2 ATS and they are playing the team with the worst defense in the league. The Saints have won 3 of their last 4 games but it was tough going against both Tampa and San Diego who they gave up a combined 940 yds and 7 TD's to. Matt Ryan is averaging 278 ypg passing and has 17 TD's, and a 68.9% completion rate. The Saints are giving up 305 ypg passing and nearly a 65% completion rate and have given up 17 passing TD's.
Over-reaction lines of the week -
Tennessee +6 @ Miami - The Titans just got blown out by the Chicago Bears by a score of 51-20 but evidently no one remembers their 3 previous games where they beat the Steelers 26-23, beat Buffalo 35-34 on the road and lost to the Colts in OT. And everyone remembers Miami destroying the Jets 30-9 two weeks ago but don't care or forgot that in 5 of their last 6 games the margins of victory were 3, 3, 4, 3 and 3. Just sayin'.
NY Jets +6.5 @ Seattle - The last game the Jets played they got destroyed by Miami 30-9. They were terrible in that game. But no one remembers that in the three games prior to that they lost by just 6 and covered vs the 7-1 Texans, destroyed and covered vs the high-flying Lucks, I mean Colts, 35-9 and lost by just 3 in OT on the road and covered vs the might New England Patriots. Again, just sayin'.
Scary teams to bet on -
Baltimore Ravens -7.5 vs Oakland - This team has one blowout win all season....the opener vs Cincy. Their other 5 wins have been by margins of 1, 7, 3, 2 and by 10 last week at the 2-7 Browns....a game that Cleveland was winning 15-14 with 4:30 min left in the game. In their last 4 games they have averaged just 268 yds of offense per game. Scary.
Value lines of the week -
Detroit -2 @ Minnesota - The Lions appear to finally be coming out of their funk with consecutive wins and covers and Minnesota, after starting 5-2, have now lost both SU and ATS in 2 consecutive games to drop to just 5-4. Detroit also has revenge for the Week 4 loss at home to the Vikes. Ponder has hit the skids the past 2 with 7 sacks and just 1 TD pass to 2 INT's and will likely be without his favorite target, WR Percy Harvin, who is also the NFL's leading KO returner.
Houston +1.5 @ Chicago - Houston is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS on the year. This will be their first game as a dog. They are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS on the road. Both lost to Green Bay, but neither has had an overly difficult schedule. Houston has had a quality road win over Denver, but I can't say Chicago has beat a real quality team, or at least not a team that was playing real well at the time.
Atlanta -2.5 @ New Orleans - Atlanta is undefeated and 6-2 ATS and they are playing the team with the worst defense in the league. The Saints have won 3 of their last 4 games but it was tough going against both Tampa and San Diego who they gave up a combined 940 yds and 7 TD's to. Matt Ryan is averaging 278 ypg passing and has 17 TD's, and a 68.9% completion rate. The Saints are giving up 305 ypg passing and nearly a 65% completion rate and have given up 17 passing TD's.
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