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View from the Window Perch -- IV

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  • View from the Window Perch -- IV

    OPENING MONOLOGUE

    Oh those ARIZONA CARDINALS. Given a million guesses, would you have thought the FIRST home dog of the season to bring home the bacon would be the Cardinals over the Packers? Does it even count as a home dog upset when the visitor has tens of thousands of more fans in the stands? The Packers had the fridge locker rented at halftime. They had all the fans. Ahman Green against a no-name defensive line and linebacking core. Brett Farve against one of the most porous secondaries in football. The Arizona passing offense – HA – was down to two healthy receivers with less than 20 NFL catches between them. What is more amazing, that they scored 20 or only gave up 13?

    All you need to know about the first three weeks of the season is this: favorites have cashed in 2/3rds of the games! Wow. That is just about UNTHINKABLE. And forget about choosing a winning dog. When your selections are the likes of the Cardinals and Seattle coming in under 3 points, good freakin’ luck. About the only dog I got right this weekend was the Giants, and that won by the flip of an overtime coin (they really should change overtime to something more like college). There is no doubt in my mind that some very talented handicappers are probably getting their ass kicked this season in this “bear” market. How can this happen? Frankly, Vegas has to hedge down their lines a bit with all the shocks we’ve seen in recent years and this year has gone almost EXACTLY like you might expect. Add a few “power points” for upgraded defenses in KC, Buffalo, and Minnesota and you’ve got the 2003 season in a nut shell with some predictable disappointments from last year’s playoff finalists (ie, Raiders, Eagles, etc.)

    As I surveyed week 3, the one thing that jumped out at me is “these matchups are even WORSE than week 2!!” And week 2 was equally favorite dominated. The –6.5 point line on the Pats was a great example. I said last week “that should be at least 7” and look – the game landed on 7. I think they blew the Detroit/Vikings line too...the game ended at 10 but I seem to remember the Vikings up about 4 points somewhere during that game, still in the money when they shouldn't have been.

    It is funny in handicapping how one game aberrations quickly become trends. When Travis Henry – IE poor man’s Priest Holmes – averaged a yard a carry two weeks ago, it was aberration. When he opened up the game the same way against the Dolphins (before he got hurt) – trend. Blake goes over 200 yards passing week 1 – aberration. Does it again in week 3? Trend. I wondered how many people – in seeing the Jets and Falcons get punked in the early games – thought to weigh that against the Redskins 2-0 against those teams and put more on the Giants before the late kickoff? If the Falcons had stood tall to the Bucs in week 3, do you lean a bit more to the Skins for having won those games then? I think so. Using the latest data to pick games is an overlooked advantage to the wagerer.

    I’m pretty proud of this column so far. I won’t spend the column gloating like last week, but I was the first to call the Raiders as old & done, the first to bag on Bulger, the first to say Red was getting fired in New Orleans this year. Is not handicapping the art of seeing the angle a step ahead of everyone else? If you can stay ahead of the curve, you’ll make money. Staying ahead does get harder as time goes on but we'll try.

    AROUND THE NFL...WEEK 3

    Let’s trip around last week a bit. Jags lost to Indy. Are the Jags not the most obvious 0-3 disappointment in memory? They were so obvious, I’ve really been nervous about them since they are a fairly unidentifiable team at this point. After a somewhat humiliating experience last year with the Bucs success, it is a quiet but worthwhile storyline that the Colts are back on top largely because of an improved Dungy defense. Expect to hear more about Dungy in the media as the wins continue to pile up in Indy.

    KC rolled Houston. I honestly thought they’d look past this game but pounding 42 points is nothing new for the Chiefs. Big note here is that this was there first win in the many recent road trips. Now that they pack a defense, the road wins should be more plentiful. Winning on the road wasn’t typically a problem in St.Louis for Vermiel.

    Minnesota punked Detroit. Maybe got a little hairy with injuries. I wasn’t very happy with the way they tried to force a TD to Moss after Frerotte connected with him deep to the goal line. The playcalling looked very suspect there. And I’ve always thought Culpepper was a little self-serving with his frequent QB runs for TDs. Maybe a little justice here in his injury? Pittsburgh survived Cincinnati. Marvin Lewis has never had the Steelers number and he might end the Bengals long string of upsets against the more talented Steelers. Is it possible the Steelers are better with Zereoue as the featured back? Seemed like Bettis was a key player who let down on the easy games all too frequently.

    Bucs punked Falcons, who simply don’t have the horses right now. Jets put up a worthwhile fight against the Patriots, but they also don’t have the horses. I think the Patriots glaring holes will be exposed rather soon but the Jets don’t have the deep threat or the running game to expose much of anything. Titans punked the Saints, but this matchup really got me thinking that the Titans are OLD. Think about it – isn’t this basically the same team that went to the super bowl in the late 90s? This group, much like Jacksonville, as way past its peak. Heck, you might even through the Colts in that category. No wonder I hate the AFC South. All of these teams are on their downside and you don’t know who is going to show up every week. McAllister is turning into a big big disappointment, although I always felt he and Bennett were severely overhyped.

    The Redskins lost to a lack of discipline but this is nothing new. In fact, the Jets would have won the NFL opener on discipline if they weren’t so down and out. Spurrier can beat the bad teams in the NFL (he did manage a 7-9 record last season with a very bad team) but he doesn’t have the razor edge of a top team. I can’t imagine his Florida teams were so sloppy. But in college, you don’t lose to inferior talent if you are a top coach and Spurrier certainly has brought that facet to the NFL. It looks like Ramsey is bank. “Trend”

    BEST PLAY OF THE WEEK: Seattle blitzes Bulger into a throw to his hot read, they are waiting to kill the receiver, and force the turnover!! That is FOOTBALL. That is COACHING. They played Bulger like a violin. St Louis has a great offensive coordinator, but Martz is the poster child “I am not a head coach” guy. He makes Norv Turner look like hall-of-fame head coach material. You bet on the Rams now, you are paying for Warner and Faulk but getting Bulger and whats-his-name. So...uhm...DON’T!!! That simple. There are few guys who can do what Warner and Faulk did and they probably will not be Bulger and whats-his-name. Be realistic.

    BEST COACHING OF THE WEEK: Cleveland. They get their defense to play after that horrendous Baltimore embarrassment. They stick with a banged up, done NOTHING doing NOTHING Holcomb into the 4th quarter. And you know what? It gets them a win. I haven’t seen the coach speeches yet but you know there had to be a strong temptation to turn back to Couch.

    San Diego. What can you say? They have been outscored in 6 straight HALVES. That’s hard to do. But at least they hung by 7 in both halves this week. Obviously, Boston being hurt and not practicing has hurt this team. The other day at the gym, I saw a babe wearing a Redskin Jersey. It said number 3. Number 3? Who the heck is number 3? Her long hair covered the name so I was forced to ask her who number 3 of the Redskins was. Get this: Jeff George. This reminded me that Marty has started with worse teams and ended up pretty good. Now, the defense is bad and that probably won’t change, but San Diego should be able to follow Buffalo and KC by scoring some points this year. They have the triplets so it should start coming together for them if Boston can practice and be productive on the field. Just being out there helps open up Tomlinson’s first 100 yard game and Brees banged in 270 yards. If they stop falling for the old “fumble pass” play, the games should get more competitive.

    I thought Bledsoe played a dreadful game. Their defense got pounded too. However, there is something to be said for the fact that a game that could have been 42-7 was just a 3 point game (pushing the spread!) with 5 minutes to go. In a battle of titans early in the season, you don’t see too many upsets. Some years, you see none. So the Bills were in a losing situation. I think it is a positive that the defense was not totally embarrassed by the Dolphins physical pounding and that they hung in the game. But was Bledsoe an aberration or a trend? The Dolphins – whose secondary had been humiliated – probably just played a bang-up game responding to the criticism they deservedly received.

    Finally, JAKE THE SNAKE looked like Elvis Grbac fooling the Buddy Ryan Cardinals on a QB keeper scrambling through the Raiders defense. It was like watching The One in the Matrix when all the bad guys slow down. But then again, it was the RAIDERS so they ARE slowed down. Jake, known for his horrendous first halves and going about 16 first quarters in a row without scoring on a scripted play, punched in 3 tds in the first half. I admit – I though he’d throw 3 ints in the first half! But while the coach says “penalties are killing us” – ha, Arthritis and Cancer is killing you more likely – the Raiders were lost on offense again. If they had something to muster up, it would have shown this week and it didn’t. An easy schedule might hide the wounds, but this team is a back-to-the-future episode of Gannon leading the 1993 Redskins all over again.

    Finally, from the bye week, we have the return of Donovan McNabb. The previously discussed MVP candidate suddenly appears as a liability. Consider: the Eagles played BETTER with his backup QBs last year than with him! Take away his 4 TD passes last year on a broken leg against the Cardinals and he had, uhm, 4 less TD passes last year. Its just amazing what two bad games can do to tarnish a players image. I have to think the take on McNabb is overblown but this is certainly a storyline worth keeping tabs on.

    ONWARD AND UPWARD....

    When I looked ahead to week 4 last week, I couldn’t believe how lame the matchups were. Fixing the early schedule had left a big gap of division games for this week. However, now that it is here, I see the storylines as very compelling. BTW, there isn’t too much upcoming in week 5 to throw off these games. Indy might look ahead to MNF. The Steelers face the Browns, although their Titans matchup is compelling. Arizona will face Dallas, which is a big game for Emmitt. But generally, the future is now.

    My #1 compelling game is Chiefs vs. Ravens. The Chiefs, poor road team last year, take on a surprising Ravens squad. The best all-around back faces the current king of “power rushing” head-to-head. And, oh yeah, Priest Holmes lost his job to Jamal Lewis. Now, he’ll SAY all the right things but no player lets a little thing like that go unforgotten. And it’ll be a bad mistake for Lewis to stir the pot again this week. Vermiel knows he will win yards per pass against these guys and he’ll translate that into a win. I think the Ravens are better than 3 point home dogs suggest but this might be a game to overlook “value”.

    My #2 compelling game is Chargers @ Raiders. Young vs. Old. Desire vs. Know How. Gannon melting down on the sidelines again. The Raiders were very streaky last year and I’d say they are on a losing streak. Chargers are putting their game together at a good time. Watching the Broncos game film should give the Chargers confidence that they can win this game and if they show up, I think they can. There is pressure on both sides to win but it is still hotter in San Diego this time of year.

    My #3 compelling game is Cowboys @ Jets. I like this primarily because it pits Parcells against Testaverde. Parcells turned Testaverde into a premier NFL Qb, which was quite a feat. But Vinnie has always had glaring weaknesses and nobody knows them better than the tuna. The only way the Jets win is if the Cowboys play a stupider football game than the Jets do. Jets would win if not for the Parcells factor.

    My #4 compelling game is Eagles @ Bills. With Bledsoe coming off a god-awful game and McNabb in a god-awful season, it will be curious to see who gets off the snyde. I think the Bills have a chance to be much much better than the Eagles this year and the –3 could be the biggest bargain of the week.

    My #5 compelling game is Skins @ Patriots. I think the Skins have the offensive weapons to really torch the Patriots numerous new vulnerabilities. This could be a surprisingly lopsided affair. The Redskins defense should be able to contain the Patriots offense. Vegas understandably opened the Pats as –2.5 point favorites, but I think bettors have the right idea pounding on the Skins in this one.

    My #6 is the grudge match of the Titans @ Steelers. When last they met, it was light up night in the playoffs. Both secondaries have shown minor improvement but this will really put the defenses to the fire. The Titans are sometimes a different team on the road, and that’s not a positive. The Steelers did take it on the chin in both meetings last year – in Tennessee.

    My #7 is the Green Bay Packers playing their 10th home game in Chicago! This was one of the most lopsided games of the season last year and I expect another lopsided affair in 2003. The Packers dismal 1-2 start includes losing 2 of 3 home games, one in Green Bay and one in Arizona. To lose this game in Chicago would be the total fumbling of a prime September schedule. This is a must-win Pack game.

    My #8 is Arizona Cardinals drawing TEN AND A HALF POINTS against the Bulger Faulkless Rams. Are you kidding me? Why not just make it 20? Hey, if you like value, this is value. If the Cardinals lose to Green Bay by 40 points, is that a –14 point line then? Cardinals like playing on the road in front of packed stadiums. I expect a football game to be played.

    My #9 is the Jaguars vs. Texans. To us, these two teams are equally bad. But to them, this is a real pride war. Particularly for the Jags, who have to believe they are leagues better than the Texans. I haven’t heard the coaching tapes on this game but I got to think a Texans victory will not go well in Jax.

    A lot of favorites again this week? Or do the underdogs finally roar back? Overall, the lines are very low this week and these teams appear evenly matched. But I still think Vegas has the right teams and 3 points won’t buy them a lot of backdoor covers.

    AND THAT CONCLUDES...THE VIEW FROM THE CAT!

  • #2
    Great write up Cat...

    I am all over AZ and GB ...

    Carpet

    Comment


    • #3
      TBC,
      You hit the nail on the head regarding the lines and cappers. Looking over the last 5 seasons, this is the worst using traditional handicapping methods. Guys who are winning right now are the ones who tend to bet favorites (you know who you are). I look for that trend to begin changing real quick. Ditto college football. Using 45 betting methods, only 2 showed winning records last weekend.

      nice right up, btw. sounds like a rome addict



      luck to all

      Comment


      • #4
        UGH

        I hate Rome. I haven't heard him since the NFL season kicked off. Why waste my time? How is his TOUR stops info gonna help my break the books? Or his drunk screaming callers slammin the latest jives about Iraq? Tell me that 95% of them don't sound like total idiots. I do sometimes like the emails though:

        "I think Plummer is a great scrambler! Signed, Elvis Grbac."

        (I'll have to work a couple of those in next week now.)

        Rome's terrible. Keep the dial on ESPN or the local guys!

        OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        Comment


        • #5
          Dan Reeves came into the Bucs game with the strategy of "not to lose". Don't commit turnovers. Don't make mental mistakes. Hey Dan -- if you play "not to lose" football in the NFL, you lose. You have to play the game to win, not play the game not to lose. The Falcons have hit the expected mental funk in stride and it looks like they will get worse every week until Vick re-establishes confidence on the squad. Vick plays "to win" by the way.

          Janikowski is the PERFECT raider. He is worth the #1 pick. What other kicker gets into drunken bar brawls and still makes most of his kicks on Sunday?

          Ironically after being defeated by a team with a suspended player, San Diego suspends Boston. Teams who suspend their own players are now 2-0. Chargers will have to rely on Tomlinson again, but I though he looked awesome last week on the highlight reel. If you want to spark a team, don't go for a fake field goal like the Jets did. Just start suspending key players!

          I loved the fire and brimstone of the Jets coach. He's a great coach. He said it like it is: "You play the game TO WIN". I don't know that his players think so. Parcells on the other sidelines could play head games with the Jets because of the brewing dissension on the team. Funny how the GM obviously blows the offseason but the head coach takes the heat? And guess who gets to fire who? This is what happens when a Cheers bartender like Woody gets to buy his own football team.
          Last edited by TheBlackCat; 09-27-2003, 12:24 PM.

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