College Hoops--Week Starting Jan.28++$$$

[brad4498]

Alright...for tonight here are the plays:

Iowa at Purdue -10. My line is exactly 10 so this one is right on. I like Purdue because they are at home but I like Iowa because 10 is a lot to cover in a conference game. Granted Purdue appears to be a top notch team in this conference..but i'm not completely sold yet. However, with Iowa if they don't hit their 3's or play some stellar D they are likely to get beat by 10-15. I'm going to lay off this game because I just can't pick a side. I like Iowa to play good D and keep it close..but when they get down they seem to give up. No play for me but if I had to choose I'd take Iowa with the points.

Virginia at Maryland -6.5. My line is 6 so again this one is right on. That being said both teams are coming off losses in which they had substantial half time leads. Virginia lost their lead because they live and die by the 3. They hit 10 of them in the first half and had a 9 point lead against Ga Tech..however, in the 2nd half they didn't fall and they gave up the lead and lost the game in OT. Maryland lost their lead because Duke stepped up. Duke played fantastic in the 2nd half and looked like one of the top 3 teams in the country. My play for this game is on Maryland because they are the better team and have a more complete scoring attack. Not to mention they also have one of the top defenses in the league and in the country.

Illinois at Mich State -9. My line has MSU by 12. The key in this game is the Illini D. If they can keep MSU in the high 60's or so they shouldn't get covered. However, if they let MSU score the 75 - 80 that they usually do I don't think Illinois can score enough to not get covered. I like MSU in something like a 78-65 final. Illinois rarely scores more than 65 and MSU has been in the 70's range all year. With solid free throw shooting MSU should cover.

Also going to follow my own advice and start playing on Kansas and Memphis, etc each time they play. Tonights Memphis line does seem a bit high, and Kansas seems a bit low. Maybe they are both traps. I'll play the odds though as both teams have been solid ATS. Memphis is 10-7 while Kansas is 13-5.

[Carpet]

zshimer A few early leans for the day....
Cincinnati +14
Missouri -5
Houston +9.5

Zshimer, you do realize that Missouri has suspended
5 players, that is addition to the loss of their top player
out with a broken jaw.

I am suprised this game is still left on the board

NB may be bad on the road, but dont think that'
bad to lose by 5 vs a No Player left Missouri squad.

Good Luck to you

[Carpet]

Good Stuff Boys

Iowa vs Purdue my numbers show Boilermakers
by 12

Virgina vs Maryland my numbers show MD by 3

Illinois vs MSU .............MSU by 7

Good Luck all

Carpet

[brad4498]

A pretty good day again. Kansas and Memphis canceled each other out. Posted big 10/Acc picks went 3-0. Didn't play Iowa so I was 2-0 on played picks. Also played a nice size wager on Maryland in the 1st half, and hit a middle with Virginia in the 2nd half. Very successful day.

Dayton really took care of business. Not entirely surprising..and not certain that they played really well...St. Louis just didn't score..don't know if Dayton should get the credit for that or not as I did not watch the game.

UAB took down UCF..not really surprised here.

BYU took down Air Force by 16...again not all that surprised that Air Force got covered..but I thought it would be a lot closer than the 16 that they lost by.

Memphis took care of business...again not a big surprise.

Kansas LOST. This was a bit of a surprise for me. It was at K-state and they certainly aren't bad..but the #2 team in the country is supposed to be able to win these games. Didn't watch the game, but bottom line...Kansas should be better than that.

Iowa played tough D as did Purdue. Iowa got screwed on having a foul called with 1.4 left in a tie game. Purdue hit the first and purposely missed the 2nd not giving Iowa a chance for the heave.

Maryland man-handled Virginia from wire to wire. Virginia couldn't hit the 3's like normal and Maryland again showed why they have the top D in the ACC.

MSU pulled out a slim cover with free throws and 9 straight missed free throws for illinois. Everything told me MSU but in this game MSU should not have covered. Chalk this one up to luck.

[woodee12]

I thought my plays would at least go 2-1. Can't figure out that Air Force team. Still think UCF was the play too. Dayton did what I thought for once.

Onto Thursday--I always do a qucik cap and jot down my first impression picks for the day and then go look at schedules and such to see which make the grade. And then I play 2-3 at the early lines if I think they will move.

Heres what I got so far today and what I have played:

Michigan +2 over Minny..Scrappy team that is not getting much respect and I think Minny gets a bit too much b/c of the Tubby factor. See Michigan getting a solid big 10 home win here.

Montana +5 at Portland State...Montana has realed off a couple of wins and need this to get back to .500 in conf play. This is a team I like and I think jumping on them now and riding is the way to go. They have talent but have underachieved thus far. I have said this before and I think I jumped on them a bit too early before.

Northern Arizona -1.5 over Northern Colorado...NAU is better in all aspects of the game. Like them even onthe road here laying the points--think this line rises as the day goes on.

Thanks for the good discussion guys. I have been out of the loop later in the day the past couple days so I missed some of your plays and insight. I really liked that Maryland play and played them in a ML parlay with Drake last night. I am afraid to post those ML Parlays b/c everytime I do they lose b/c of the Bettorsworls curse I guess. But they have been profitable for me the past few days. Probably not the smartest bets but i think they can make you some money at times with favs from 3-7 points, mostly home teams.

Good luck today.

[zshimer]

Ended up backing off that Missouri play last night thanks to Carpets insight... I knew about the injuries but after taking a second look decided not to pull the trigger. For tonight I only see one play... Temple -1. Also like Woodies play on Northern Arizona but not sure if Im going to play it yet.
-Good Luck.

[dragon1952]

Nice play on the Bearcats. I just can't imagine a 14 pt home fav getting pounded by 23. I know Cincy had a little incentive with the Huggins deal but damn! Talk about rubbing it in

[woodee12]

Adding:

Idaho State +9 over Weber State

Temple -1 over Fordham

Cal +10 over Washington State

Austin Peay -3 over Murray State

[garister]

fishy line

South bama-2 1/2 at North Texas
SA has won last 6 meetings
SA has won 13 in a row, NT has lost 3 in a row.
SA is 7-1 ATS on the road, NT just 3-2 at home
SA is undefeated in conference play
Public is allover S.ALAB YET
line has dropped from 3 1/2 to 2 1/2

Like:
woodies N.AZ

[woodee12]

I noitced that N Texas line. Think I may jump on the home team here. Classic WTF line.

[brad4498]

4 Big 10/Acc games today and i don't really like any of them.

I'll post my thoughts but I don't think i'm going to play any of them. I'm going to look for something else to play on or take the night off. I know I said I was going to take UNC, Duke, Kansas, etc. every time they play but tonight I just can't do it.

BC +18 at UNC. As much as I love UNC I just don't know if they will put BC away by 18. They are certainly capable of doing it but to me the line is just too high to play UNC and I hate to play against them because they are too good and can score to easily. Line started at 19 and early opinion has agreed with my thoughts..this line is too much. I think i'll stay away.

Minnesota at Michigan +3.5. Usually going with a home dog works out well. I'm not positive that Michigan will get it done but I think they will keep it close. I don't plan on playing this one either but I like Michigan.

NC State at Duke -18. As good as Duke is...18 is too many for them to cover. Anyone who has watched Duke this year will know that when they get up 10-20 points with less than 10 minutes left to play they start to run the clock. The PG will stand out top and run 30 seconds off the clock before even starting their offense. This and the fact that NC State has been playing better lately leads me to like NC State in this game. However, since Duke is capable of winning this game by 30, i'm not very confident in playing on NC State. I think i will likely make a small play on this one.

Indiana at Wisconsin -4.5. Wisconsin is fantastic at home. Indiana is the better team IMO. Indiana is fresh off a loss to UConn. It was the first test they really had this year and they got hammered at home. I think they will play like they have something to prove today. Wisconsin is fresh off a loss to Purdue and a slim victory against Michigan. I like Indiana in this game, but Wisconsin is a force at home. I'm going to stay away but i'm leaning to Wisconsin in a 5 or 6 point game. Too narrow for me to wager on.

May make some other plays..but as far as the ACC/Big 10 goes..the lines are just too high, the matchups too iffy. It might not be a bad idea to play all the dogs in these games...better to be getting points that way if its right around the spread at the end of the game your side should get the late buckets.

[brad4498]

Just a note on the N.Texas game.

S.Alabama appears to be a force. Clearly the better team.

N.Texas has not been playing well and not scoring like they can.

To me this game is a likely toss up only because N. Texas is pretty solid at home and they can score with anyone.

I also like S. Alabama though because all they have to do is win, and they have been playing well while N. Texas has not. Earlier in the year I would have gone with N.Texas..but lately they have not been good.

[Carpet]

WISKY VS INDIANA

Wisconsin 16-3 vs Indiana 17-2 at the Kohl Center

Wisky is favored by 4.0

Wisky defense is 3rd best in the nation at
54.7 ppg allowed

103-6 at home

Show me a team that plays good defense and
I will show you a team that will beat Indiana
every day of the week

Take Wisky here, the line should be higher

Carpet

[woodee12]

1/31/08 7:00PM Minnesota at Michigan +2½ Loss
1/31/08 8:00PM Temple -1 at Fordham Win!
1/31/08 8:00PM South Alabama at North Texas +3 Win!
1/31/08 8:30PM Murray State at Austin Peay -3 Win!
1/31/08 9:00PM Idaho State +9 at Weber State Win!
1/31/08 9:00PM Northern Arizona -1½ at Northern Colorado Loss
1/31/08 10:00PM Montana +4½ at Portland State Win!
1/31/08 10:00PM California +10 at Washington State Win!

Now thats more like it--I stepped up the number of plays last night b/c I thought there were some good ones, but it was kinda risky. My 2 losses were the ones I thought I would win actually.

Feeling better now and hopefully this will snowball into good things to come.

The north texas game did turn out to be a coin toss as Bama won by 2. Could have went either way.

[garister]

Duke was incredible last night, Down 9 at the break, you knew they weren't gonna lose so at -12 1/2 for the 2nd half what a bargain. They outscored NCST by 29 to cover the the full game spread too.

I gotta learn to pull those triggers on the WTF lines like wooddee did. (No. TX)

congrats on your nice thursdays guys.

small play today, both teams suck, Can't ignore Penns domination.
Harvard @ Penn-

Penn has won the last 12 meetings and harvard is 0-10 on the road. This is the conference opener for Penn. I think they will have extra confidence beacause of the domination.