MLB Baseball--Plays and discussion

[dragon1952]

Recap of Tuesday -
Hit my straight bet with the Cubs. Hit parlay #1 with the Dodgers and Mets. Missed on parlay #2 as Rockies lose by 2 and Phillies win but just by a single run.

Wednesday July 30
2-team parlay #1
Oakland -136 vs Kansas City -(Gallagher 1-0, 2.60 vs Bannister 7-9, 5.40) - Kansas City looks like they may be resting some players as they've won the first 2 games vs Oakland. Bannister has given up 25 runs in his last 5 starts, totaling 24.2 innings, with 5 dingers, so he can definitely be scored on. Gallagher has given up just 5 earned runs in his first 3 A.L. starts since being acquired from the Cubs.
Arizona -135 @ San Diego - (Haren 10-5, 2.56 vs Baek 3-4, 4.86) - Haren has only given up a total of 8 runs with 57 strike outs over his last 8 starts totaling 57 innings.

[dragon1952]

More Wednesday July 30

Cardinals +106 @ Atlanta - (Carpenter 0-0, 0.00 vs Jurrjens 10-5, 3.02) - Cards have out-scored the Braves 20-6 in winning the first 2 games of this series. Braves now missing about 1/2 of their offensive punch with Chipper Jones and Brian McCann out, and now Mark Teixeira gone. That's 58% of thier HR's, 42% of their RBI and 34% of their runs scored that are missing. Jurrjens seems to be either really good or really bad. In his last 10 starts he has given up 1 run or less 5 times and between 3-6 runs 5 times. Atlanta has now lost 4 in a row and 7 of their last 10. Cards have won 2 in a row and 3 of last 4. Carpenter certainly an unknown for the Cards but considering the degraded lineup he'll be facing, a shot as the under dog seems worthy. On the Cards side, Pujols alone can kill you. Over his last 4 games, 3 of them wins, he has gone 10 for 18 with 8 RBI, 9 runs scored and 3 HR's.
Cubs +102 @ Milwaukee - (Dempster 11-4, 2.99 vs Parra 9-3, 3.72) Another great match-up between the current top 2 teams in the N.L. Central. I'm going to stick with the hot team again. The Cubs have won 3 in a row and 5 out of 7 since Alfonso Soriano's return to the lineup. Milwaukee has now lost 3 in a row and 4 out of their last 5 games. Dempster has given up 3 runs or less in 18 of his 22 starts this year. In his 2 starts since his All-Star appearance he has only given up 1 run in 14 innings. Not much bad to say about Parra but the Cubs have just beaten Sabathia and Sheets, scoring 13 runs total in those games, so will go with the hot hand at a nice price.
Angels +167 @ Boston - (Saunders 13-5, 3.10 vs Beckett 9-7, 3.83) - Hard to pass this one up. You get the hot Angels who are 11-2 in their last 13 games and have already taken the first 2 games at Boston. Saunders has faced the Red Sox twice this year with the Angels winning both games. He has held them to 5 runs on 13 hits over 12.2 innings. Josh Beckett was the loser in one of those games giving up 4 runs on 9 hits over 8 innings. Boston has now lost 4 out of their last 5 games. Certainly not a lock, but definitely worth a shot at the price.

2-team parlay #2
Colorado RL -1.5 -105 @ Pittsburgh - (Cook 13-6, 3.46 vs Duke 4-8, 5.04) - These two pitchers met on 7/20 in Colorado with Cook picking up an 11-3 win. The Pirates jumped on Cook in the 1st inning, in part due to an infield single and walk, and scored 3 times on 4 hits. Cook shut them out for the next 6 innings on 1 hit, retiring them in order 5 times, before handing off to the bullpen. Duke got rocked giving up 9 earned runs on 10 hits, including 2 dingers, and lasted just 5 innings. Duke is 0-4 with 4 no-decisions over his last 8 starts. Over his last 4 starts he has given up 24 runs, 34 hits and 7 HR's in just 19.1 innings.
Phillies -131 @ Washington - (Moyer 9-6, 3.76 vs Redding 7-5, 3.98) - Can't see the Nats being able to out-score anyone these days. They have now dropped 7 in a row and have only scored 10 runs total in those 7 games. Over their last 5 games they have only scored 3 runs total! Moyer is giving up an average of just under 2 runs per start for a 2.75 ERA over his last 9 starts. And like woodie has indicated, the UN 8.5 runs in this game at EVEN odds looks mighty good considering that Redding is no slouch either.

Leans
Phi/Was UN 8.5 - Good pitching plus the Nats lack of 'O'.
Sea/Tex OV 11.5 - First 2 games in this series have produced 33 runs. Pitchers have combined 25-12 OV/UN records. Wind blowing out. OV 20-10 when wind blowing 10-20mph...go wind!

[dragon1952]

Recap of Wednesday -
Hit the 3 straight bets and parlay #2. Went 1-1 on parlay #1. Lost the leans.

Thursday July 31
Short schedule today so just a 2-team parlay for now.
Phillies -130 @ Washington - (Kendrick 8-5, 4.70 vs Lannan 6-10, 3.33) - Washington has lost 8 games in a row and 18 of their last 22. Phillies have scored 141 more runs and have hit 74 more HR's than the Nats.
St Louis -125 @ Atlanta - (Piniero vs Hampton) - Atlanta has now lost 5 in a row and have been out-scored by the Cards 27-8 in the first 3 games of this series. Cards have won 3 in a row and 4 of their last 5. Casey Kotchman went 0-5 in his Braves debut. See Braves/Cards write-up from yesterday for the rest of the story. Hampton has had 1 start since 2005, on 7/26 and got rocked by the Phillies giving up 6 runs on 8 hits and lasting just 4 innings.

[dragon1952]

Recap of Thursday - Just played the 2-team parlay and went 1-1 with it with Phillies winning and Cards losing.

Friday Aug 1
straight bets
Yankees +106 vs Angels - (Ponson 6-2, 4.59 vs Santana 11-5, 3.57) - I see the oddsmakers have finally jumped on the Angels bandwagon and instilled them as favorites for a change. Santana has cooled off a little in losing his last 2 starts. I've just got a hunch that the Yankees come through in this one.
Tampa Bay/Detroit UN 8.5 EVEN - (Kazmir 8-5, 2.84 vs Miner 5-3, 3.65) - Kazmir has pitched to a 1.68 ERA at home this year over 8 starts and the under is 11-5 in his starts overall. The under is 8-0 in the Rays last 8 games. Miner has had just 2 starts so far but has only given up 2 runs on 8 hits total over 12 innings.

2-team parlay
Seattle -118 vs Baltimore - (Washburn 5-9, 4.50 vs Olson 7-5, 5.90) - Baltimore gets to travel 3000 miles to play the Mariners. They did win 2 of 3 last trip to Seattle but on their last west coast swing lost 5 of 6 to the Angels and A's. Washburn las lowered his ERA 2 whole points in his last 10 games, a period in which he has given up 2 runs or less 8 times. In contrast, Olson has raised his ERA by over 2 points in the same number of starts in giving up 4 or more runs 7 times, and 5 or more runs 5 times.
Red Sox -140 vs Oakland - (Wakefield 6-8, 3.94 vs Duchscherer 10-7, 2.37) Oakland is only 2-12 in their last 14 games and is 1-7 in their last 8 road games. Maybe Boston can concentrate on winning now that the Ramirez distraction has been removed. Jason Bay should be a nice addition.

[dragon1952]

A couple more for Friday-
straight bet
Arizona +107 @ Dodgers - (Johnson 8-7, 4.58 vs Kershaw 1-3, 4.53) - Randy Johnson has improved over his last few starts in winning 4 in a row. In his last 2 starts totaling 14 innings he hasn't given up a run. Arizona is starting to heat up too as they've won 6 of their last 7 games and 8 of 10. Kershaw finally got his first win over lowly Washington but it took him 10 starts.

2-team parlay
Giants -126 @ Padres - (Lincecum 11-3, 2.78 vs Banks 3-4, 3.92) - Lincecum has only given up two runs in 3 starts over 19 1/3 innings vs the Pads this year. With Khalil Greene now out, Padres starting line-up tonite will show only 3 original members from the beginning of the season. Probably a good spot for the UN 7 runs too.
Cincinnati/Washington UN 9.5 -120 - The under is a combined 5-18 for these 2 starters this year. Washington has lost 9 games in a row and have only scored 19 runs total during that period. Christian Guzman and Ryan Zimmerman will be out along with half the team. Leaning towards the Reds at +102 to win also.

[dragon1952]

Recap of Friday - I hit 2 out of 3 straight bets and 1 of the parlays. Since Tuesday I am doing pretty well hitting 6 of 7 straight bets and 3 out of 7 parlays. Let's see if I can keep going.

Saturday Aug 2
2-team parlay
Milwaukee RL -1.5 -130 @ Atlanta - (Sabathia 4-0, 1.82 vs Morton 2-4, 7.26) - Wow, -195 for the ML bet and -130 for the RL bet. In contrast the Padres are -240 favorites but only -115 at the RL. Must be lots of people on the Brewers -1.5 today, but with good reason. The Braves line-up is getting pretty thin with Jones and McCann still out, and Teixiera gone. Sabathia is 7-0 with 2 no-decisions in his last 9 starts. He has given up 4 runs total in his 3 starts with the Brewers with 2 complete games. Morton has given up 24 runs in his last 5 starts in just 22.2 innings.
Dodgers -134 vs Arizona - (Kuroda 5-8, 4.40 vs Petit 1-1, 2.55) - Petit only has 2 starts this year and has only gone 7.1 innings so figure he won't be in there that long. Kuroda has had a couple sensational streaks although he did get clobbered in Arizona a couple weeks ago. I'm sure he'll be motivated for some payback.


more later.....there's quite a few straight bets I'm looking at

[dragon1952]

Saturday - Aug 2

straight bets
Cincinnati +108 @ Washington - (Fogg 2-3, 7.84 vs Bergmann 1-8, 4.13) - Washington is only 2-13 in Bergmann's starts this year, not that he's pitched all that bad. But they are only giving him about 2.5 runs per game, on average, of run support. In contrast, the Reds are scoring 5.5 for Fogg and are 5-3 when he starts. The Nats have won once in their last 10 games. Cincinnati is 4-1 vs Washington this year.
Cardinals +106 vs Phillies - (Looper 10-8, 4.38 vs Blanton 0-0, 7.88) If you've been reading this thread you know I'm not a big Joe Blanton fan. He's pitched to a 7.88 in his 2 starts since becoming a Phillie, but the Phils have actually won both games due to some awesome run support. He actually only pitched 2 innings in his last start though because of a rain delay, but he'd already given up 2 runs. Going back over his 5 starts prior to that he had given up between 5-8 runs four times. Looper should get lots of run support today and the OV 9.5 might be worth a shot too.
Baltimore +118 @ Seattle - (Guthrie 7-8, 3.49 vs Hernandez 7-6, 3.02) - Seattle has only won 3 games in their last 13. Baltimore obviously has the Mariners number as they've won 6 out of the 7 games this year. I ignored that yesterday and took Seattle on a parlay. The O's on a bit of a roll winning 4 out of their last 5 games overall, including 3 vs the Yanks and 1 vs the hot Angels.
Houston +119 vs NY Mets - (Oswalt 8-8, 4.67 vs Santana 9-7, 2.93) - Hard to find reasons to go against Santana, but he is certainly not unbeatable. In his last 7 road starts he is just 1-3 with 3 no decisions. Oswalt has won his last 2 home starts and is 3-2 in his last 5 home starts. Houston is 3-1 on the current home stand and have won 5 of their last 7 games overall. Mets are just 1-3 on the current road trip.

2-team parlay
Giants RL +1.5 EVEN @ San Diego - (Zito 5-13, 5.80 vs Peavy 8-6, 2.67) - Giants are 6-3 vs the Pads this year, including 3-0 in San Diego. Six of the 9 games, and all 3 in San Diego, have been 1 run games. Peavy not his normal, almost unbeatable, self as the Pads are just 8-10 in his starts and only average 4 runs for him in support. Plus these are the 2 lowest scoring teams in the NL, except for Washington.
Boston RL -1.5 EVEN vs Oakland - (Lester 9-3, 3.17 vs Eveland 7-7, 3.88) - Boston is 15-7 when Lester starts this year and averaging around 5.5 runs in support of him. The Sox have won his last 4 starts in a row by a margin of 26-7. Oakland has scored a total of only 8 runs over their last 4 games, all losses, and have only won twice in their last 15 games.

[dragon1952]

Recap of Saturday - Went 2-2 on the straight bets and hit both parlays.

Sunday overnight lines - I sleep late so here are my first impressions without any research...these lines may be different in the morning

straight bet
Brewers RL -1.5 +125 @ Atlanta - (Sheets vs Campillo)

parlay material
Orioles -115 @ Mariners - (Cabrera vs Silva)
Dodgers -120 vs Arizona - (Johnson vs Davis)
Reds -125 @ Washington - (Cueto vs Balester)

[dragon1952]

Wow.....got up early for a change. Ignore previous post. Upon further review I made some changes
Sunday Aug 3
No straight bets today, just a few parlays

2-team parlay #1
Orioles -114 @ Mariners - (Cabrera 7-6, 4.81 vs Silva 4-12, 5.95) - The Mariners are just 7-15 when Silva starts this year. Baltimore is 8-1 vs Seattle this year, and have also won 8 times in Cabrera's last 10 starts vs them.
Mets -127 @ Houston - (Perez 7-6, 4.02 vs Wolf 6-10, 4.79) Perez has been outstanding lately as he has only given up 6 runs total on 26 hits over his last 6 starts totaling 39.2 innings, with 44 K's. Wolf is just 1-6 with 1 no-decision over his last 8 starts, of which all but 1 were with the Padres.

2-team parlay #2
Brewers @ Atlanta UN 8 105 - (Sheets 10-4, 3.14 vs Campillo 5-4, 2.76) - Not that history always repeats itself but, on 6/23 Sheets pitched a complete game 4 hitter vs the Braves, in Atlanta, in a 4-1 Brewer win. Two days later, Campillo went 7 innings giving up just 2 runs on 4 hits in a 4-2 Brave win. Campillo also beat the Braves in May going 5 innings in that one and only giving up 1 run on 4 hits Sheets has a 2.81 ERA on the road this year, going 6-1. Six of the eight match-ups this year between these teams have totaled 7 runs or under, with the other two totaling just 9 each.
Florida -126 vs Colorado - (Although Olsen did get clobbered in Colorado recently, he has pitched much better at home where he has only given up 11 runs total on 33 hits over his last 6 home starts totaling 37.2 innings. Rusch had a relief appearance vs Florida in that same series and gave up 3 runs on 4 hits in 1.1 innings. The Rockies have cooled off a bit after sweeping Cincinnati to start this road trip in going 2-4 over their last 6. Florida is 4-2 on their current home stand, including winning 2 of 3 so far vs the Rockies.

2-team parlay #3
Dodgers -119 vs Arizona - (Johnson 1-0, 1.38 vs Davis 4-5, 3.86) - Arizona is only 2-5 in Davis' 7 road starts this year. In 3 appearances this year, including 1 start, Jason Johnson has only given up 2 runs on 10 hits over 13 innings. He won his first and only start last week going 6 innings vs the Giants and giving up no runs on just 5 hits.
Reds -118 @ Washington - (Cueto 7-10, 5.02 vs Balester 1-3, 5.13) - Cueto beat the Nats early last month in Cincy going 7 innings and giving up 3 runs on just 7 hits. In that same series, Balester took the loss going 5.2 innings and giving up 5 runs on just 4 hits, but he also had 3 walks that hurt him.

[dragon1952]

Forgot the pitching match-up in the FLA/COL game:
Florida vs Colorado - (Olsen 6-6, 4.04 vs Rusch 4-3, 5.70)

[dragon1952]

Well I guess I was due for that. Good day for it though with just a few fun parlays. The one Parlay that looked like it was good, the Florida bullpen ruined.

Monday Aug 4
straight bets - no dogs today
Minnesota -119 @ Seattle - (Perkins 8-3, 4.20 vs Batista 4-11, 6.43) - Minnesota has finally overtaken Chicago for 1st place in the AL Central. The Twins are just 28-29 outside of their division and 23-28 away, but are 12-6 away vs what I would consider the 'bottom dwellers' like Seattle. Seattle just lost 2 of 3 to Baltimore to begin their home stand, where they are 21-34 this year. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games, 4-11 in their last 15 and 7-17 in their last 21. Batista has been back and forth from starter to bullpen and Seattle has only won in 5 of his 18 starts this year. The Twins were 5-1 in Seattle last year.
Kansas City -102 vs Boston - (Meche 9-9, 4.22 vs Buchholz 2-6, 5.94) - Boston is only 1-6 when Buchholz starts on the road this year, and the win was vs Seattle. They are just 3-9 in all of his starts combined. In his last 5 starts he has given up 23 runs in just 25.2 innings and has issued 17 walks and got tagged for 4 dingers. The Royals are 8-1 in Meche's last 9 starts and 5-0 in his last 5. KC has won 6 of their last 7 games and just took 2 of 3 from the White Sox to begin this home stand.

2-team parlay
Milwaukee -126 @ Cincinnati - (Parra 9-4, 3.93 vs Arroyo 9-8, 5.74) - Milwaukee had been one of the hottest teams prior to running into the Cubs. Now that the Cubs are gone, Milwaukee is coming off of a 2-1 series win at Atlanta. The Brewers have won 9 of their last 10 road games. Cincinnati is just 1-8 recently and just got swept by Washington. During their current skid they have been held to 2 runs or less 6 times.
Arizona RL -1.5 -140 vs Pittsburgh - (Haren 11-5, 2.62 vs Herrera 1-1, 9.00) - Herrera has been pretty awful in giving up a run an inning, on average. His one good game vs the lowly Padres makes his stats looking better than they are. Plus, he's been the recipient of decent run production, which he isn't liable to get with Haren going for the D'backs. Take away the Padre game and Herrera has given up 17 runs on 25 hits in just 11 innings. Also, consider that the Pirates have a bullpen ERA of almost 5.00. Haren is good for at least 7 innings.

[woodee12]

Took a break over the weekend--hers waht I have for monday-

Reds +113 over Brewers

Wash/colorado UNDER 9.5

Rangers +150 over Yanks

Seattle even over Minny

Cubs/Dback Parlay

[woodee12]

Early play-Don't usually look at these bets but have been watching for a spot and this may be it.

Astros team total UNDER 3 (-130).

Berkman resting, Harden on the mound, and wind blowing in for week hitting Astros team. Like it.

[dragon1952]

just a 3-team parlay today as I'm short on time. 1-1 yesterday on the straight bets with that horrible Twin choke. 1-1 on the parlay.

3-team parlay
Arizona RL -1.5 -130 vs Pittsburgh - (Webb 15-4, 3.04 vs Duke 4-9, 5.27 - Pretty similar situation to yesterday where the D'backs won by 6. Dukes has been awful, especially over his last 5 starts where he has given up 30 runs on 42 hits, including 8 HR's, over just 24.1 innings. In contrast, Webb has given up just 7 runs on 29 hits with no HR's over his last 5 starts totaling 36 innings. Pittsburgh is only 19-35 on the road this year and just 19-44 in their last 63 road games. Also, consider that the Pirates have a bullpen ERA of 5.25 which over their last 3 games has been even worse at 7.08.
San Francisco vs Atlanta OV 8 EVEN - (Sanchez 8-7, 4.61 vs Hampton 0-0, 10.00) - Hampton continues his comeback attempt after a 3 yr absence from the majors. In his first 2 starts he got hit pretty good giving up 10 runs on 15 hits and 6 walks, and lasting just 9 innings total. Opponents have been averaging over 7 runs in Sanchez' last 3 starts. In his last 5 starts he's given up 20 runs in 21 innings.
Twins -140 @ Seattle - (Baker 7-3, 3.53 vs Dickey 3-6, 4.41) - Twins imploded last night blowing a 5 run lead in giving up 10 7th innings runs. Twins are 11-6 in Bakers's starts this year. Seattle is 3-7 in Dickey's. Minnesota is batting .282 vs right-handers this year.

[woodee12]

or Not! Good concept except for the Astros have 7 runs in the 7th now. Leave it to me to pick Harden's worst start so far.

Heres what else I have so far--

Dodgers -110 over Cards..Carp on the mound and still not 100%.

Angels -1.5 over Orioles...Angels have destroyed lefty pitching this year and Balt has a rookie lefty on the mound on the orad.

Seattle +118 over Twins...Think Seattle's bats woke up last night.