Dragon1952's NFL picks - Week 8

[red raider 84]

Good job as always Dragon, wish I would have followed your lead more yesterday. How well do you like the Saints tonight? I was kind of leaning more toward the falcons and the points but being from around this area I tend to be bias at times. I'm sure you already knew that (Bama) lol. Just wondering is this a game you really feel strong about or are you just staying with the Saints because they are hot? RR84

[dragon1952]

Well I liked it more at -10. I see it's moved to -12 now. If I recall, this is one of the games that opened at around 9 and immediately got hammered up. The value is moving towards the Falcons, but my Hilton pick is at -10.5 and I did make that my top play, so I do need to win by 11, which is close enough to 12 I guess.
Atlanta is allowing opponents to convert on 3rd down at a rate of 45%, and on 4th down they are allowing 62.5% success (5 of 9). They are giving up an average of 368 yds per game. That's not very good when you are traveling to play a team that is averaging 427 yds per game and nearly 40 pts.

The Falcons 4 wins are against teams with a combined record of 13-15 that are averaging around 21.6 ppg. 3 of those wins were at home. Their 2 losses are against teams that are a combined 10-4 and are averaging 28 ppg, and both were on the road by 16 pt margins. In both of those losses, the Falcons were held to under 300 yds. In fact, Miami held them well under 300 yds also.
Here are the numbers Atlanta defense has given up to opposing offenses.
New England - Brady 25 of 42 for 277 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT - 168 yds rushing - 445 total yds.
Dallas - Romo 21 of 29 for 311 yds. 3 TD's, 0 INT - 115 yds rushing - 414 total yds.
Carolina - Delhomme 25 of 41 for 308 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT - 144 yds rushing - 440 total yds.
Chicago - Cutler 27 of 43 for 300 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT - 63 yds rushing - 383 total yds.
Chad Pennington even completed 21 of 29 passes.

Bottom line, is that the Falcon defense is not very good and the Saints offense is the best. And when you consider that defenses such as New England, Miami and Dallas held Atlanta under 300 yds, and that the Saint defense may be the best they've faced yet, it doesn't look good for the Falcons.
And this is New Orleans 1st divisional game, and against the team right behind them, so I don't think we have to worry about a letdown here.
The Saints have beaten 2 tough NFC East teams by 21+ pts, so I don't think they will have much trouble with Atlanta. I'll guess something in the range of NO 41 - Atl 20