Early Super Bowl Thoughts

[Dinger]

SAINTS 31
COLTS 27

[widestrides]

I agree with Boone. Peyton will shred this bad Saints defense. The Saints will need to rip at least 3 balls away to even stand a chance.

Saints did not deserve that win. I agree with Boone that they laid some cheap shots on Favre. That was in their game plan no doubt and they know they will need to do the same to Peyton to have any chance of winning.

True, the Indy defense hasn't had to contend with an offense like the Saints, so that will be telling. But Brees and Co. will have to put up more than 40 to beat what Peyton will put up.

Colts 45-31.

The over 56 is easy. Or go over on the Colts Team Total of 30.5 and sit back and enjoy. It will be in before the 3rd quarter is over.

The only thing to wait on is the weather report. Only the rain and a slow, soggy grass field will keep Indy under their Team Total.

Both teams are used to Domes and artificial turf.

[dragon1952]

I would say the Saints defense deserved the win, but not the offense. Favre was on his ass all day long, and the Saint defense really tightened up as the game went on. They did a great job on Peterson overall.

[woodee12]

So far, the play I like best is the OVER 30 for the Colts team score that was mentioned. '

I locked that in already.

May be my only play on the game possibly?

[Krichinsky]

Money heading to Colts. Line now -5.5, someplaces -6.

[Dinger]

I think many bettors fall into the trap "What have you done for me lately. The last impression is the lasting impression.

The Cowboys thump the Eagles and everyone on TV is ready to crown there a$$. Then they get man handled by the Vikings.

The Colts were losing to the Jets, luckily they missed two field goals or this games momentum could have pushed the Jets a little further. Instead they gave Peyton a short field and he made them pay 10 fold just like he did against the Patriots. That took the wind out of the Jets sail and they evetually crashed and burned.

Both teams are close to even on both sides of the ball, but here are the three keys.

Turnover Battle
Refs Bad/Stupid calls (Please not again)
Momentum changes (See first two points)

[Krichinsky]

Dinger,
Also add missed FGs. Which seems to fuel more negative vibes, than
made FGs add to the positive.
Did I say that right? Anyway you get what I mean.

[widestrides]

Freeney has a torn ligament in the ankle, not just a sprain. He is questionable. Got to believe he will play but won't be 100%. And not sure about Powers, the Colts' CB. If he can't go, the rookie the Jets picked on will be tested by Brees.

Those are two key injuries for the Colts.

I still like the Colts, but now I could envision a shootout where the Saints could cover.

I guess I'll stick with my Colts over 30.5 Team Total. Only rain, FGs instead of TDs or multiple turnovers will keep Peyton Manning below 31 against that Saints D. And if those Colts injuries help the Saints score more, then Manning will have to keep scoring and not sit on it.

GL

[Boone Moone]

Widestrides,

This is the Super Bowl.......You go balls out until it's over..........Nobody will be sitting on anything............Well, with the exception of Kim Kardashian on Reggie Bush if the Saints win it all !!!

[dragon1952]

I agree....this Freeney talk is hype. No way he misses this game.

[daddyd]

For what it is worth the mighty Brandon Lang picks the colts 34-20. At least that is what I saw posted.

[dragon1952]

Hmmmm. On their way to 13-0, the Saints scored 28 or more 10 times (30+ 9 times). The other 3 were 27 and 26 and with 24 being their lowest total against the NY Jets defense. It wasn't until 13-0 that they scored less than that when they scored 17, 17 and 10. You could say the Dallas game was meaningful, but not the others. Once things were meaningful again, and they were finally healthy again, the Saints scored 45 and 31. No way they get held under 28 pts here.

[daddyd]

Langs write up

200 DIME - INDY MONEY LINE

100 DIME - INDY Minus points

It's a mismatch.

After using the Colts over the Ravens and the Jets, I am fully confident they will not only win this game but they will win it by double digits.

Let's start with the first big advantage the Colts have over the Saints and that is the Indy offense versus the New Orleans defense.

Now playing at home with all the advantages you could ask for, New Orleans got torched by a 40-year-old quarterback to the tune of 28 for 46 good for 310 yards while the Vikings ran for another 165 yards for 475 yards total offense.

The Saints were outgained by 218 yards at home, were the beneficiary of 5 turnovers and still almost lost. Had the Vikings gone to Indy and give Peyton Manning 5 turnovers, what do you think the final score would have been? My point exactly.

The last team to be outgained by that type of margin was the '94 Chargers, who were drilled in the Super Bowl by the Niners 49-26 after being outgained in the AFC championship game by the Steelers 415-226.

If Brett Farve was able to have that kind of success, on the road, in the Superdome, against that crowd noise, I will gladly roll the dice with Peyton Manning on a neutral field against this Saints defense.

Indy is about matchups, about getting a matchup that favors them and then attacking it until you fix it and if you don't, Peyton will go there all day long, as evidenced by his performance in the AFC championship game versus the Jets.

New York double-teamed Clark and Wayne leaving Collie and Garcon in solo coverage and Manning hammered it all day long to the tune of Collie getting 7 catches for 123 yards while Garcon got 11 catches for 171.

You may shut down Wayne and you may shut down Clark, but you are not going to shut down all four of them, just ask the Jets, who went into Indy with the best pass defense in the NFL and were completely picked apart for 377 yards by Manning and allowed nearly 500 yards total offense.

In fact, in beating the Ravens 20-3, the Colts beat the best scoring defense in the NFL, a unit that was ranked 3rd overall in total defense, 3rd against the run and 8th against the pass.

In fact, in beating the Jets 30-17, the Colts beat the best defense in the NFL, the best pass defense in the NFL and the 8th best run defense.

Indy now steps way down to face a Saints defense ranked 25th best in the NFL. They have the league's 7th worst pass defense are just 21st against the run.

Washington's Jason Campbell, who is not to be confused with Peyton Manning, torched this Saints secondary to the tune of 30 of 42 for 367 yards. Folks, that is Jason Campbell we are talking about here.

Here is the reality facing the Saints in this football game: If they don't create turnovers in this game, they have no shot of winning this football game whatsoever. None. Zilch. Nada.

For New Orleans to win this game they need the Colts, like the Vikings before them, to beat themselves and as you saw versus two defenses far superior to the Saints in this postseason, the Colts will not do that.

In two playoff games the Colts have committed a total of 5 penalties. I am talking about 5 here folks and get a load of this next statistic because it will blow you away:

In the last 2 years Peyton Manning has handled the football over 2,000 times and you know how many times he has fumbled? Zero. None. Zip. Nada. Big fat donut.

The New Orleans Saints have matchup problems all over the field and they are going to have to blitz to get to Manning and as you saw with the Jets and Ravens, you don't get there, he will light you up. Simple as that.

Indy has one of the most underrated offensive lines in the NFL. All they do is protect Manning and give him time and there is no blitz package the Saints can come with that the Colts offense hasn't seen in the last two weeks. Nothing.

You give Peyton 10 possessions in this game he is going to score on at least 5 of them against this Saints defense if not more. That is how bad New Orleans matches up with this Indy offense.

As for the Colts defense, they are a lot better than people give them credit for, a lot faster than people give them credit for. and they are a very hard defense to go 80 yards against consistently over the course of a football game because they are so fundamentally sound.

If you think the Saints are going to consistently go on long drives over the course of 60 minutes in this football game against this defense, you are dead wrong. They are not disciplined enough to pull that off.

In fact, the Saints are not disciplined enough as a team to beat this Colts bunch. They are highly penalized and in my opinion, poorly coached.

Undefeated and facing Dallas at home the Saints were completely dominated and lost 24-17. Playing for homefield advantage the next week against Tampa Bay they were held scoreless in the 2nd half before losing in OT.

Think about that for a moment: Playing for homefield throughout the entire NFC playoffs they were shut out at home by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and lost. Wow.

Two Sundays ago they were dominated by the Vikings but luck was on their side. Well guess what folks, they won't have luck on their side today and they will be dominated much the way Dallas did to them.

Across the board Indy is the better coached team, with the better offensive and defensive lines and they have perhaps the best QB in NFL history going back to his 2nd Super Bowl facing an inferior defense with two weeks to prepare.

New Orleans will have some success offensively but it won't be enough to offset everything Manning will be able to do on the other side of the football. As you saw against the Vikings, this is a very average Saints defense.

We should have been treated to the Vikings and the Colts, Farve versus Manning and not the Aints versus the Colts and because of this, Peyton will methodically pick apart New Orleans all game long, slowly build a lead and milk it away in the 2nd half.

I view the Colts as a 18-0 football team and for sake of argument, if they were 18-0 what would this line be? My guess is Colts would be favored by 7 and I would have still laid it so this line move doesn't scare me at all.

Congratulations to owner Jim Irsay, who I know personally and is one of the most sincere and geniune men I have ever met. And congratulations to rookie head coach Jim Caldwell for your Super Bowl win today.

And last, but certainly not least, congrats to you Peyton Manning as you cement yourself today as the greatest NFL quarterback of all time with a performance of the ages against this Saints defense.

Last year my final predicted final score between Arizona and Pittsburgh was 23-20 Cardinals and I was 2:33 seconds away from being right on the money.

This year I say the Indianapolis Colts are your Super Bowl champions with a 34-20 victory.

SUNDAY FREE PICK:
Saints/Colts UNDER


NOTE:

It's the 2006 Super Bowl all over again and just as I did then with a money line play on the Steelers and a second play on Pittsburgh minus the points, I do the exact same thing with the Colts Sunday.

The bottom line is I love this game more than life itself and for only the 2nd time in my career, I come with a play on the money line as well as a play on the side.

With the current pointspread being all over the board the only way in my opinion the Saints cover this game is with a backdoor score. Simple as that.

If you remember the '06 game, the Seahawks had the ball with just under 2 minutes to go at midfield driving for the 3rd straight super bowl backdoor before Pittsburgh shut them down.

I feel, as I did in 2006, you are getting unbelievable value with the Colts on the money line in the low 200's. And quite frankly, it's value I can't and will not pass up, just like with Alabama in the BCS national title game (when I used the Tide as a 100 Dime Money Line play).

I am also releasing early because I want you to get 5 1/2. I personally feel this line is going to go up and really feel it might close as high as 7, however with the Freeney news, it may not. Either way, I want you to get the best line available.

So once again, I feel 100 percent that if Saints even comes close to covering, it will be the backdoor. I am protecting myself and highly advise you to do the same by making the Colts on the money line your biggest best bet.

After using the money line as my top play in 2006 did I come back with a money line play on the 2007 Super Bowl between the Bears and Colts? No I did not. Instead, I laid the 6 1/2 with the Colts and got the winner 29-17.

In 2008, I loved the Giants and the points over New England and last year I liked the Cardinals and the points versus the Steelers.

So here it is, four years later with a similiar pointspread I had to deal with in the Seattle/Pittsburgh game and for the second time, the money line play is my top play.

The Colts will not lose this game. Simple as that.

Now, people often ask me why you get blowouts in Super Bowls and my answer has never changed: It's because we get the wrong matchup and because of that, the team that doesn't deserve to be there gets blown out.

Let's be perfectly honest: the Saints didn't beat the Vikings, the Vikings beat themselves. You go on the road in the NFL playoffs and you put up 31 first downs to 15 and outgain your foe 475 to 257 in total yards....but 5 turnovers cost you a shot at the Super Bowl.

I am talking about the Vikings outgaining the Saints by 218 yards and giving them the game.

The last team to go to the Super Bowl that was outgained by that type of margin in the conference championship game and won was the 1995 Chargers, who were outgained 415 to 226 but still got the win on a pair of 2nd half touchdown passes from 43 yards out beating the Steelers 17-13.

San Diego was outgained by 189 yards, took the gift win and went to the Super Bowl where they got destroyed 49-26 by San Francisco. They never should have been there.

Here are a few more examples of teams that shouldn't have been there but did and got crushed. Trust me, there are more but you will get the jest of my point.

In 1992 when the Bills came from 35-3 down at home in the 2nd half to beat Houston only to go to the Super Bowl and get killed by the Redskins 37-24.

How about 1999 when the Vikings had the highest scoring offense in NFL history but lost the NFC championship game at home because of a Gary Anderson missed chip shot field goal at the end of regulation led to an OT loss to the Falcons.

Atlanta then got hammered by the Broncos 34-19.

Which brings us to the Saints. Just like 1992 when it should have been Oilers/Redskins, 1994 it should have been Steelers/Niners and just like 99 it should have been Broncos/Vikings, we should have had Vikings/Colts today.

But the Saints took advantage of Minnesota's turnovers, accepted the Vikings' gift of a victory and they are in Miami. They will leave losers.

Now enjoy my breakdown of why the Colts are the right play in the 2010 Super bowl which will be my 18th in a row.

[dragon1952]

I don't think he's giving the Saints offense enough credit. It's obvious he doesn't like New Orleans. He points to the last game a lot too. The Saints had 14 other wins this year. And the losses he points to were after they had started 13-0 and had health issues on defense. Of course Minnesota racked up the yards. They have a great offense and were the 2nd best team in the NFC. And they also have a great defense. A 40 yr old QB? That just happens to be Brett Favre, he forgets to mention. He makes it sound like it was Brad Johnson or something. Both teams can put points up.
As for Indy's D, they really didn't face many really good passing QB's this year. In 14 of their games out of 18 they faced David Garrard twice, Chad Pennington, Seneca Wallace, Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Mark Bulger, Alex Smith, Flacco twice, Sanchez twice, Kyle Orton and Ryan Fitzpatrick....not a scary bunch, and even a few of those did pretty good.
They faced just 4 above average passing teams with excellent QB's. Warner was 30 of 52 for 332 yds , Schaub was a combined 63 of 85 for 595 yds in 2 games and had a chance to win both, Brady was 29 of 42 for 375 yds. Indy won all 4 games but had to make comebacks in 3 of them....2 were after deficits of 17 pts.
Now they will face an even better offense than any of those. I think Indianapolis D is not as good as this guy thinks, and I think he is under-rating this Saints offense.
Not that Indy won't pull out a win, but he just makes it sound like a mismatch .... which is foolish, IMO.

[Jason Daubenspeck]

Yes sir, I enjoyed that game very much!