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Discussion first, with leans. Final picks to come Sunday.
Minesota -2. Viks should get their first win here at home. Their D has been playing well, but getting no 2H help from the O. AZ's Kalb was back-pedaling against the Giants pass rush. Jarred Allen and Co. will have him back-pedaling some more. I'm not a McNabb fan, but he will fare better at home this week. Run AP, run!
Pitt -3. Big Ben is ? and Harrison is out and so is his replacement and the Pitt OL is a sieve! But Tenny just doesn't scare me. Pitt has lost 2 in a row ATS and Tenny has won 2 in a row ATS. Looking for a reversal in that trend.
Oakland +6 at Houston. Oakland is tough and Houston will be slowed with the loss of Andre Johnson. Not crazy about this one as Wade has the Texans' D playing tough and that's a tough and loud place to play.
Seahawks +10. I'm a Giants fan but Hawks D is not bad and Giants may sleep-walk through this one after 3 wins in a row SU and ATS. Tavarius Jackson playing a little better now and he's got Mike Williams and now Sydney Rice to throw to. Giants did beat them 44-7 and at Seattle last year. Hmmm? Gotta respect match-up scores like that.
Tampa Bay +3. Not real sure about this one, but the Teams seem to be evenly matched and getting 3 makes it worth a shot. Bucs have a much better O. SF has a bit better D. Long travel for Tampa.
Jets, but only if +10. Jets D stopped Brady twice last year, but they were also torched by him last year. Pats' D is about as bad as their O is good. Maybe the over 48.5 is the pick here.
Jets/Pats over 48.5. See above. Unless the Division familiarity keeps the score down.
Eagles/Bills over 50. Eagles have been stopping themselves. They need this one bad, but their D is not very good and Buffalo should be able to score right along with Vick and Co.
Saints/Panthers over 51. Saints D is also almost as bad as their O is good. Same with Carolina. Only the natural grass and bad weather can keep this under.
Seahawks/Giants under 43.5. Giants will want to grind it out and avoid the upset bid. Or they will get up early and sit on it as they usually do. Both went over last week. Looking for a reversal in that trend.
Bucs/Niners under 42. Two grind-it-out teams trying not to make mistakes. Both went over last week. Looking for a reversal in that trend.
Bears/Lions under 47.5. Turf show could take it over, but Bears got back to the run last week and Divison familiarity keeps the score down. 47.5 a big number. Detroit has gone over all four weeks. Looking for a reversal in that trend.
Cinci/Jax over 37. Cinci has gone under their last 2. Jax under their last 4! Looking for a reversal in that trend.
Green Bay/Atlanta under 53.5. Atlanta and GB both over last week and 3 out of their first 4. Looking for a reversal in that trend.
Okay, that's a lot. Gotta whittle them down. Let me know which ones!
Minesota -2. Viks should get their first win here at home. Their D has been playing well, but getting no 2H help from the O. AZ's Kalb was back-pedaling against the Giants pass rush. Jarred Allen and Co. will have him back-pedaling some more. I'm not a McNabb fan, but he will fare better at home this week. Run AP, run!
Pitt -3. Big Ben is ? and Harrison is out and so is his replacement and the Pitt OL is a sieve! But Tenny just doesn't scare me. Pitt has lost 2 in a row ATS and Tenny has won 2 in a row ATS. Looking for a reversal in that trend.
Oakland +6 at Houston. Oakland is tough and Houston will be slowed with the loss of Andre Johnson. Not crazy about this one as Wade has the Texans' D playing tough and that's a tough and loud place to play.
Seahawks +10. I'm a Giants fan but Hawks D is not bad and Giants may sleep-walk through this one after 3 wins in a row SU and ATS. Tavarius Jackson playing a little better now and he's got Mike Williams and now Sydney Rice to throw to. Giants did beat them 44-7 and at Seattle last year. Hmmm? Gotta respect match-up scores like that.
Tampa Bay +3. Not real sure about this one, but the Teams seem to be evenly matched and getting 3 makes it worth a shot. Bucs have a much better O. SF has a bit better D. Long travel for Tampa.
Jets, but only if +10. Jets D stopped Brady twice last year, but they were also torched by him last year. Pats' D is about as bad as their O is good. Maybe the over 48.5 is the pick here.
Jets/Pats over 48.5. See above. Unless the Division familiarity keeps the score down.
Eagles/Bills over 50. Eagles have been stopping themselves. They need this one bad, but their D is not very good and Buffalo should be able to score right along with Vick and Co.
Saints/Panthers over 51. Saints D is also almost as bad as their O is good. Same with Carolina. Only the natural grass and bad weather can keep this under.
Seahawks/Giants under 43.5. Giants will want to grind it out and avoid the upset bid. Or they will get up early and sit on it as they usually do. Both went over last week. Looking for a reversal in that trend.
Bucs/Niners under 42. Two grind-it-out teams trying not to make mistakes. Both went over last week. Looking for a reversal in that trend.
Bears/Lions under 47.5. Turf show could take it over, but Bears got back to the run last week and Divison familiarity keeps the score down. 47.5 a big number. Detroit has gone over all four weeks. Looking for a reversal in that trend.
Cinci/Jax over 37. Cinci has gone under their last 2. Jax under their last 4! Looking for a reversal in that trend.
Green Bay/Atlanta under 53.5. Atlanta and GB both over last week and 3 out of their first 4. Looking for a reversal in that trend.
Okay, that's a lot. Gotta whittle them down. Let me know which ones!
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