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  1. #1
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    Bears @ Eagles ~ MNF Discussion Thread

    Current line as of 12:30 EST: Philadelphia -8 O/U 47.5

    I don't know what to expect with the Bears O line, that's the key to the game. If the play calling keeps pressure off of Cutler, it will be a close game, if not, they are going to be shelled.

    The Bears have played Philadelphia tough the last for years, going 3-1. The one loss was by 4. They know how to contain Vick, they've seen him before. But McCoy will chew up the Bears.

    The Eagles lead the NFL in rushing; the Bears give up 5.2 yards per carry. The Eagles have speed at receiver; Bears safeties are young and inexperienced. It's on the road on "Monday Night Football" where the Bears are notoriously bad!

    I bought a point and took the Eagles -7. I can see Philadelphia winning by anywhere between 7 to 17 points. I'll say 31-20 Eagles.

    Good luck!

  2. #2
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    going back until 2002 they have never beat each other by greater than 15pts.
    So, I was thinking a tease of bears +15 Over 40.
    currently I see 8 and 47.

    The reason I would say that and not philly -1 is philly has been unreliable this season. They are looking better but that was against the cowboys in division coming off a bye.
    Bears are coming off a bye and even have an extra day and half with this being a monday night game to prepare.

    Vick is 0-3 as a starter against the bears. They have held him in check with a 76.2 passer rating, 0td, 3int, 187rush yds and over 5 games 15 sacks.
    Of course philly knows this too.
    I think this breaks 40 and stays within 15.

    Heck I even have the bears in my mock hilton picks I think at +8 which is a nice number. Just above a TD

  3. #3
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    I like the Eagles tonight, I know Im in the minority with this play.

    My Numbers show eagles -12. Bears are in the same situation as KC, they just played 2 straight division games and 1 on deck with Detroit. Bears are coming out of a bye and seems like those teams are sloppy.

    PHI-8

  4. #4
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    I have the Bears +14.5 to finish up a nice teaser so I am going to stick with that I think . But if I were to play it now, I may lay the 8 with the Eagles.

    I think the OVER 47 is the best play overall really. Both should score.

    But my 2 overs (jets over, pats over) yesterday sputtered the whole first half so that that that--

    Teaser play would probably be Bears/Over for me if I were to play it.

  5. #5
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    One prop I really like is Brent Celek UNDER 3.5 catches.

    I see it for -120 to -135 right now and waiting for my other book to post a number on it.

    He had a big game last time out but think he is back in his blocking usual role tonight and only grabs 2-3 catches.

  6. #6
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    ^
    yep going with chicago +15 over 40. Hoping it plays. Would like the celek one but looking for him to do bad since a guy in my fantasy league needs him to do almost anything and it'd help me if he didn't win.
    Need forte to get me 15 pts in one league and other I have 44pt lead and forte also other guy has vick. I win this and I'm #1. enough of that.

    Kind of like either:

    Cutler Over 1.5 TD passes at +110

    matt forte score a TD yes even odds (although this is scary as he's only got 2TD's this season but eagles have let up 6 rush td's and I think he gets one if not rushing then a receiving td)

  7. #7
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    Had a great college day and just as bad pro day so who knows with my pick just going on record as taking the Bears and the Overs.

  8. #8
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    Just a little thinking out loud.
    Similar teams in a way. Chicago has 4 wins but 3 are against teams with a combined record of 8-16 (2 have a combined record of 4-12). The 3 losses are against teams with a combined record of 20-5.
    Philly has 3 wins against teams with a combined record of 8-16 also. Their 4 losses are against teams with a combined record of 23-9. In their defense, Philly probably would have won the Atlanta game if Vick hadn't had to leave the game, and they had a total collapse against San Fran leading them 23-3 mid-way through the 3rd Q.
    The Bears losses have all been by double-digits and they don't have a true road win yet. They play much better at home. Both teams are coming off of 2 game winning streaks.
    I think Philly has the ability to blow the Bears out, but I don't think Chicago could blow Philly out.
    The game will depend on,
    1. Turnovers - Philly had 14 in their 4 consecutive losses but only 2 over the last 2 games, (none against Dallas), both wins. Chicago is +4 is TO ratio commiting just 8 and forcing 12. Philly is -7 commiting 17 and forcing 10. Both Vick and Cutler can be prone to making poor decisions and turning the ball over.
    2. Running games - LeSean McCoy 135 rushes for 754 yds and 8 TD's (5.6 ypr avg) vs Matt Forte 124 rushes for 672 tds and 2 TD's (5.4 ypr avg). Both are good receivers with McCoy having 23 catches for 138 yds and 2 TD's and Forte at 38 catches for 419 yds for 1 TD. The Eagles average 180 yds rushing per game though whereas Chicago only averages 114.
    3. Defense - Both are stout against the run allowing 118 vs 108, but Chicago has given up an average of 271 yds through the air per game, and Philly has the receivers and QB to take advantage of that.
    4. Special teams - Philly has DeSean Jackson returning punts and Chicago has Devin Hester returning both punts and KO's.

    Edges -
    QB - Philly due in large part to Vick's evasiveness
    Running backs - Slight to Philly
    Receivers - Philly - DeSean/Maclin/Avant with McCoy/Celek a huge advantage over Hester/Knox/Williams/Sanzenbacher/Bennet who are all very inconsistent.
    Defense - Philly (especially considering this is a home game and with Chicago's spotty secondary play)
    Special teams - Chicago

    Chicago is coming off of a bye but had to deal with the London trip and has a big divisional (and revenge) game on deck with Detroit on a short week.
    Philly coming off of a bye and then an easy but very big divisional game over Dallas.
    I think Philly has the edge here being at home and with Arizona on deck at home.

    Current line at sportsbook.com
    Phil -8 / 47

    I'm with Taxman on this one. I wouldn't take Philly higher than -7 but I love a 7 pt teaser with Phil -1 and OV 40. I don't trust the Bears on the road enough to tease them even to 15, but after losing two parlays yesterday with Pittsburgh PK on one and New England -1.5 on the other as the last teams I needed to put around 500 bucks in my account, I suppose a Chicago win is not out of the realm of possibility.
    BTW, I did take Chicago +8 as the last pick in the Hilton contest but that was as an effort to shake things up a bit as I've been terrible in that so far.
    I see the total going up to possibly 48 so I'm taking the teaser now Phil -1 and OV 40.
    Final score....I'm going same as Taxman.
    PHI 31
    CHI 20

  9. #9
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    however........

    In one of my fantasy leagues I am down 14 with Jay Cutler remaining for me. My opponent has LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson, so I need them to lay eggs and Cutler to have the game of his career :

  10. #10
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    very nice analysis Dragon thanks.
    Plus your prediction and Taxman's still has my teaser winning

    I'd think winning in london against a decent bucs team would be a good road win. Though see the point that neither team was truly home.
    The detroit loss was a divisional and dome game so hard to use that as a measuring stick. The saints game would be the best measure but that was way back in week 2.
    Lovie is 4-3 coming off bye. So that doesn't mean anything.

    RB comparison I'd put it about even. McCoy is more a running threat but forte's receiving stats make up for that giving him as much value.
    Completely right about the receivers that philly is loaded. That's why bears need to bring the pass rush to flush vick right. When Vick goes right he tends to run with the ball instead of passing. Of course the O-line will be ready for that but will they hold up?

    I think it'll be closer. I'll be hoping for an eagles loss and even have the bears in my pickem pool at work (weekly straight up pool) but see this as
    27-20 philly winning sadly.

    that O/U is about dead one with what I figured the score would be. Actually have 49 in my pickem pool but that's too close for me to call an over.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by woodee12 View Post
    But my 2 overs (jets over, pats over) yesterday sputtered the whole first half
    Woodie, when a game goes 3-0 or scoreless at the half, you have to play the OVER the 2H. It hits like 80% based upon recent memory of my database.

    Both NYJ/BUF & NYG/NE covered the 2H totals.... Just a note for the future as it does not happen to often.

  12. #12
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    My formula has the Eagles -7.5...not much difference then the actual spread...so technically I would go with the Bears plus the points.

  13. #13
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    Teams after playing in London and after the bye the following are:
    5-3 SU but 2-6 ATS

    Only one team went on the road after London and it was NO losing @ ATL 34-20 as 1.5 dogs.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Taxman View Post
    Woodie, when a game goes 3-0 or scoreless at the half, you have to play the OVER the 2H. It hits like 80% based upon recent memory of my database.

    Both NYJ/BUF & NYG/NE covered the 2H totals.... Just a note for the future as it does not happen to often.
    not as drastic as 0-0 but
    happened with pitt/bal last night too. all field goals first half. All TD's second half.

  15. #15
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    All I know is that the Bears have a pretty good record coming of bye weeks.

    The next 2 games are critical to the bears to have a chance at making the playoffs, everyone on the team has expressed this over and over agan the last 2 weeks.

    It is conceivable that the Bears could win 10 games this year and not make the playoffs. This is a must win game for the bears.

  16. #16
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    hester over 3 pass receptions -115
    He's had over 3 the past 3 games so may be a good one.

  17. #17
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    Longest FG of the game - OV 44.5 -115
    Double Result - 1stH tie/game Eagles +1600 (I'm going to win this one of these days!)

  18. #18
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    They've got to do something about these officials deciding the outcome of games. A bullshit roughing the passer penalty gives Chicago a free 4 pts. They review everything else, why can't they review a game changing penalty to verify if it actually occurred? And then they totally ignore a helmet to helmet tackle by Tillman on Celek on the last play of the half? One was really a penalty and one wasn't and the one that wasn't results in free points.

  19. #19
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    If just one of the Pats, Steelers or Eagles win at home. Un-fucking-believable.

  20. #20
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    Great win bears

  21. #21
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    And that's why I had the bears. Good game

  22. #22
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    Well, my longest FG over 44.5 yds prop won anyway :^ /

  23. #23
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    Nice.
    I washed out on props. Took hester 3 receptions and cutler over 1.5 tds. So broke even on that but hit the teaser. Feels good to be up for the week.
    And then comes thursday night football.

  24. #24
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    Cha Chinggg

  25. #25
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    Nice job boys on this thread.....very informative and insightful on each other opinions.

    That game cooled me off a little.

    Can win them all, but it's fun trying!!

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