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  1. #1
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    Jan 2005
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    Minnesota @ Green Bay MNF Discussion Thread

    Looking for some additional insight on this game as it appears to me that this line is very tight.

    Current line is GB-13.5 O/U 50.5

    I read somewhere that this is the highest point spread of MN @ GB in 50 years (possibly the expansion year of MN)

    The last time they play couple of months ago, Minnesota was leading at the half 17-13. GB hung 20 points in 3rd and MN came back with 10 in the 4th to cover the 10 point spread.

    So tonight the spread is 13.5, which is generally a ton of points in divisional games.

    Dabbling through my database going back to '78 I was able to come up with these trends:

    Divisional HF of 13.5+ are 100-23 SU, 49-68-6. So, in the 100 wins the home favorite covered 49-45-6 52% of the time (49/94)

    Divisional HF of 13.5+ and 8+-0 are 10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS

    On MNF, divisional HF of 13.5+ are 5-1 SU, 2-3-1 ATS (NE lost to Baltimore in 78)

    Defending super bowl champions in divisional HF of 13.5+ are 19-4, 7-14-2 ATS, exclude the 95 49ers and 00 Rams and it's 16-0 SU 6-9-1 ATS

    MN is bad on the road lately 3-12 SU, 4-11 ATS L15
    As DD RDs MN is 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS L 10

    GB home 14-1 SU, 11-3-1 ATS L15


    My opinion: I have a hard time giving 2TDs with the 30th ranked defense!
    Adrian Peterson had a 175-yard rushing day against the Packers the last game. The Vikings would love to establish a run game and keep Rodgers off the field.

    Finally, the Vikings generally play well and are competitive against MN.

    I'm buying the 1/2 point and will take MN +14

  2. #2
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    I like Minny and the under. I played the under at 51 very early this week and also have it teased to 57.5 from a play yesterday.

    Green Bay is good but they have been a covering machine and I think this isthe best spot as any to take the Vikes as they will try to run the ball and control the clock to stay in it.

    I don't think Minny will win but it will be closer than expected and I love to fade the big fav on monday nights.

    Teaser with Minny and the under would be my play if I had a clean slate going in without any other pending plays.

    Good Luck!

  3. #3
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    I wrote this up earlier.
    Current line GB -13 O/U 49.5 www sportsbook.com (this line is still current)

    Green Bay (8-0) vs Minnesota (2-6)

    Green Bay is averaging around 34.5 ppg and giving up an average of around 22.5 ppg. In the first game against Minnesota the Packers may have come in a little over-confident at 6-0 and facing a rookie QB making his first start. The Vikings actually led at HT by a score of 17-13, but GB woke up in the 3rd Q scoring 20 pts while shutting out the Vikes for a 33-17 4th Q lead. Minnesota scored 10 in the 4th to make a game of it but the Green Bay defense held when it counted. The Vikings got 175 yds from RB Adrian Peterson, but Ponder was actually pretty mediocre completing just 13 of 32 for 219 yds and 2 TD's, but with 2 INT's.
    Rodgers completed 24 out of 30 in that game for 335 yds, 3 TD's and 0 INT's. This time the game will be in Green Bay where the Packers are 3-0 SU and ATS this year winning by 8, 26 and 21. Overall GB is 6-2 ATS this year. This will only be the 4th home game for Green Bay this year, and the first home game since Oct 16th, so the crowd should be fired up for this divisional match-up. The Packers should have a much better idea of how to defense against Ponder this time, and I'm sure they are embarrassed by the way Peterson ran all over them in the 1st game. I would expect a much more focused Green Bay team this time out and am expecting a very comfortable win. Rodgers has been insanely good this year completing 72.5% of his passes for an average of 327 ypg, and has 24 TD's vs just 3 INT's for a QB rating of 129. Minnesota has been getting torched by the better QB's giving up an average of 321 ypg and a total of 12 passing TD's in 5 games to Rivers, Stafford, Rodgers, Newton and Cutler.
    Prediction,
    Green Bay 37
    Minnesota 17

    I've already played a 7 pt teaser GB -6 and OV 42.5, and I need GB -6.5 to finish off a 3 team 6.5 pt teaser. I'll always likely place a moderate bet on GB -13.

  4. #4
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    Edit: I'll "also" likely place a moderate bet on GB -13.

  5. #5
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    I like a teaser of
    Minny +20 Over 42.5
    Should go over that and I had this in my previous writeup.

    Ponder is about to make his 3rd NFL start.
    In hist first start he spent a week studying the packers a team the coaching staff and many players know very well. In that game they lost by 6 points and hit the over.

    Then he spent a week studying the panthers and won that game on the road.

    Next he spent 2 weeks + 1.5 days for bye week and monday night game studying for.... the packers.

    In his (ponder's) 4 week NFL career he has spent 3 of those weeks studying the packers.

    The packers are the 31st worse pass defense.

  6. #6
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    The Packers are the 31st ranked passing D because teams have to abandon the run to try and keep up with them :^ P

  7. #7
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    My system has the Packers -13.5 and had to go thru 3 tie-breakers to pick this game. Take the vikings and the points oh so slightly. A cover will push my record this week to 12-4.

  8. #8
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    Oct 1999
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    I teased the Packers down to 6.5 and under 57.5, not sure why I bet the game except that I am bored to tears tonight and there are no new episodes of "American Hoggers" on tonight.

  9. #9
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    hahaha just caugh american hoggers the other night. Those 2 chicks are hot. and the old guy is amazing and the other guy.... wow.

  10. #10
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    wow. baaaadddd week.
    only saviour tonight was prop bet rodgers over 2.5td and 2nd half over. just a little under tonight but totals about even for the week where my picks were absolutely horrendous this week.

  11. #11
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    winner winner chicken dinner

  12. #12
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    You had to be sweating that under a little bit there at the end

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by dragon1952 View Post
    You had to be sweating that under a little bit there at the end
    absolutely.....been cornholed by NFL slop time too many times to think I had a winner even at HT I was still uneasy. WSEX still had shares of GB for $80 on their first drive of 2nd H when they were at Minny 20 so I bought a few of those as well...a nice MNF for me this time.

  14. #14
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    Way to go

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