Looking for some additional insight on this game as it appears to me that this line is very tight.
Current line is GB-13.5 O/U 50.5
I read somewhere that this is the highest point spread of MN @ GB in 50 years (possibly the expansion year of MN)
The last time they play couple of months ago, Minnesota was leading at the half 17-13. GB hung 20 points in 3rd and MN came back with 10 in the 4th to cover the 10 point spread.
So tonight the spread is 13.5, which is generally a ton of points in divisional games.
Dabbling through my database going back to '78 I was able to come up with these trends:
Divisional HF of 13.5+ are 100-23 SU, 49-68-6. So, in the 100 wins the home favorite covered 49-45-6 52% of the time (49/94)
Divisional HF of 13.5+ and 8+-0 are 10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS
On MNF, divisional HF of 13.5+ are 5-1 SU, 2-3-1 ATS (NE lost to Baltimore in 78)
Defending super bowl champions in divisional HF of 13.5+ are 19-4, 7-14-2 ATS, exclude the 95 49ers and 00 Rams and it's 16-0 SU 6-9-1 ATS
MN is bad on the road lately 3-12 SU, 4-11 ATS L15
As DD RDs MN is 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS L 10
GB home 14-1 SU, 11-3-1 ATS L15
My opinion: I have a hard time giving 2TDs with the 30th ranked defense!
Adrian Peterson had a 175-yard rushing day against the Packers the last game. The Vikings would love to establish a run game and keep Rodgers off the field.
Finally, the Vikings generally play well and are competitive against MN.
I'm buying the 1/2 point and will take MN +14
Current line is GB-13.5 O/U 50.5
I read somewhere that this is the highest point spread of MN @ GB in 50 years (possibly the expansion year of MN)
The last time they play couple of months ago, Minnesota was leading at the half 17-13. GB hung 20 points in 3rd and MN came back with 10 in the 4th to cover the 10 point spread.
So tonight the spread is 13.5, which is generally a ton of points in divisional games.
Dabbling through my database going back to '78 I was able to come up with these trends:
Divisional HF of 13.5+ are 100-23 SU, 49-68-6. So, in the 100 wins the home favorite covered 49-45-6 52% of the time (49/94)
Divisional HF of 13.5+ and 8+-0 are 10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS
On MNF, divisional HF of 13.5+ are 5-1 SU, 2-3-1 ATS (NE lost to Baltimore in 78)
Defending super bowl champions in divisional HF of 13.5+ are 19-4, 7-14-2 ATS, exclude the 95 49ers and 00 Rams and it's 16-0 SU 6-9-1 ATS
MN is bad on the road lately 3-12 SU, 4-11 ATS L15
As DD RDs MN is 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS L 10
GB home 14-1 SU, 11-3-1 ATS L15
My opinion: I have a hard time giving 2TDs with the 30th ranked defense!
Adrian Peterson had a 175-yard rushing day against the Packers the last game. The Vikings would love to establish a run game and keep Rodgers off the field.
Finally, the Vikings generally play well and are competitive against MN.
I'm buying the 1/2 point and will take MN +14
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