Widestrides NFL Picks Week 2

[widestrides]

7-5 YTD

Green Bay -4 bought half point

GL

[ShawNee922]

Good start ...

[widestrides]

Last week 7-5

This week 1-0 so far with Green Bay.

Here are some Leans and Thoughts. Will document the actual plays later.

Minny -3 and over 45.5 at Indy. Liked it at 44. Still do at 45.5. Neither D much to write home about and Freeney out again. AP and Harvin and Ponder good for TDs both ways! Luck will also do well at home. 31-24 Vikings.

Arizona +14 if it gets there and it is starting to show up at +14 in places. Might take a back door cover and betting Kolb against Brady makes me queasy! Pats 30-17.

Was thinking Saints -2.5 and over 51, but it's 51.5 now. Saints always can rely on Brees, but they seem to be a bit off due to distractions and no coach. And they are not as high-flying on grass. Panthers looked bad last week. Will they rebound at home? Maybe Saints at -2.5.

KC +3 at Buffalo and maybe over if 44 - currently 44.5. Liked it better at +3.5, but this is a toss-up game and I'll take the +3 with what I feel is the better team. Fitz just keeps throwing INTs. But the Bills can also score, so the over looks good.

Ravens +1 or +2 at Philly. Will Ravens continue to roll and are the Eagles as bad as they looked last week? Will Vick continue to be erratic and always one hit away from the x-ray room? Teams seem to have Vick figured out and he may be losing confidence and getting gun shy. DeSean and Maclin will be game time decisions. Flacco growing in confidence and I like their no-huddle urgency to get some points and not just leave it up to their D.

Seahawks +3.5 vs Cowboys. Cowboys looked good but might be different on the wet grass in Seattle. Boys OL still in flux and banged up and Hawks have a good D and pass rush. Rob Ryan has that D paying well though. Nail biter. Take the +3.5.

Redskins -3 at the Rams. It IS good advice that a team is never as good or bad as they played last week, but sometimes one team IS hot and one team is NOT. I also feel that way about RGIII and Skins. I think he plays well again vs Rams and you also have the very tough Skins D to keep it close if he's not on top of his game. Stafford kept the Rams in that game. Lions should ahve covered, although the Rams looking better this year so far. But the line is -3.5 now, so that's tough laying -3.5 on the road. I got it yesterday at Skins -3.

Atlanta -3 and over 51. Really like Falcons. Place will be rockin' and Broncs have some issues. Denver D couldn't get off the field on 3rd down vs Pitt. But will they both go no-huddle and have a track meet or slow it down to keep the other O off the field? More playmakers for Atlanta.

Pitt -5 vs Jets and over 42. Big Ben was very impressive in Denver. Amazing 3rd down conversions! True, Steeler OL is a problem, but they played better than the Bears OL. Still, Rex will bring the blitz, but Ben is cooler than Cutler and harder to bring down. Collingsworth commented how much speed Pitt has at WR. Ben will get it out fast. Steeler D will get after Sanchez and he will cough it up. I like the over 41.5 also. Jets without Revis, Keller and an OLB. Pitt without Harrison again and maybe without Troy and a makeshift OL.

Niners -6.5 if available and under 47 if available vs Lions. Lions don't match up well here outdoors on the grass vs the rock solid Niner D. And SF will go smash mouth on O. 23-13 Niners.

Talk me out of my losers! Don't be nice. Flame on.

[Krichinsky]

I really like the Cowboys in this spot. Lot to prove for
Romo and I think Ryan's defense will force a few
turnovers. Just don't see the Hawks very settled on
what works on Offense for them. That will change
with Wilson, but still a work in progress.

Thanks for your posts Widestrides.

[widestrides]

Yep, Rob Ryan and that D scare me. They totally blanketed the Giants WRs and got pressure on Eli. Won't go Hawks with just +3. Maybe at +3.5 and rain in the forecast.

[dragon1952]

Sea/Dal - 3 pts to the home team in what should be a defensive struggle is big. This venue forces a lot of offensive penalties on the visitors and Dallas had trouble with this last year and again against the Giants last week. Tough match-up especially coming off of a divisional rival on the road and having to travel again to play a team looking for a win in a big way.
I don't like Minny as a road favorite either for a team that only has 4 road wins in their last 20 tries and only won 3 games total last year.
Not sure Arizona can do it without a running game. They got stuffed by Seattle and New England stuffed Tennessee even worse.

[widestrides]

Thanks for the support on Seattle. Line was 3.5 and now coming down to -3. I hope that means Sharp money on Seattle.

I agree, the Cards are hard to back at NE. Would need 14. Someone posted a stat that The NE Pats, coached by Belichick, are 5-11 ATS when at home favored by 13 or more.

[widestrides]

Locked in Skins at -3 on Friday.

Locking in:
Saints/Panthers under 51.5. Hoping the grass slows them down.
KC +3.5. Surprised that extra half still available this AM.
Ravens +3 (Bought the hook.)
Steelers -5
Steelers/Jets over 42
Seahawks +3.5.
Locking in Atlanta -3 now as it might go up. Getting juiced at -3.

Waiting on Seahawks/Cowboys under 43. Now 42.5.
Missed out on Niners -6.5 Now -7. Will wait and see if it comes back down. And hope I can also get under 47

GL

[widestrides]

Grabbed another unit on Saints/Panthers under 53!
And got Miami/Oakland over 39 and under 41 for a middle try. Books numbers varying widely on this one.

[widestrides]

Another middle I found without paying high juice. Saints -2.5 and Panthers +3. Could happen.

[widestrides]

Updated Card
Redskins at -3
Saints/Panthers under 51.5
Saints/Panthers under 53
Saints -2.5
Panthers +3
KC +3.5
Ravens +3 (Bought the hook.)
Steelers -5
Steelers/Jets over 42
Seahawks +3.5
Atlanta -3

[widestrides]

Updated Card
Redskins at -3
Saints/Panthers under 51.5
Saints/Panthers under 53
Saints -2.5
Panthers +3
KC +3.5
Raiders/Fins over 39
Raiders/Fins under 41
Ravens +3 (Bought the hook.)
Steelers -5
Steelers/Jets over 42
Seahawks +3.5
Atlanta -3

[widestrides]

Updated Card Playing the middle game today. Got some good numbers shopping around.
Redskins at -3
Saints/Panthers under 51.5
Saints/Panthers under 53
Saints -2.5
Panthers +3
KC +3.5
Raiders/Fins over 39
Raiders/Fins under 41
Houston -6.5
Jax +7
Ravens +3 (Bought the hook.)
Steelers -5
Steelers/Jets over 42
Seahawks +3.5
Atlanta -3

[widestrides]

Updated Card (Playing the middle game today.)
Redskins at -3
Saints/Panthers under 51.5
Saints/Panthers under 53
Saints -2.5
Panthers +3
KC +3.5
Raiders/Fins over 39
Raiders/Fins under 41
Ravens +3 (Bought the hook.)
Houston -6.5
Jax +7
Steelers -5
Steelers/Jets over 42
Seahawks +3.5
Atlanta -3

[ShawNee922]

Don't see any middles on your card... a few side shots though ..

I think Carolina will smoke the Saints bruh ..
Saints couldn't circle the wagons @ home for RG, no reason to believe they will circle them on a slick field in the home of CAM...
Ravens line looks too good to be true, so it probably is ... Noticed the total jump a couple points in a game supposed to feature two marque defenses.

Atlanta...... Hmmmmm! more on that one tomorrow ....