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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Apr 1999
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    1,596

    Baseball Total Betting

    Today's Cubs game, at post time, offered the following closing totals:

    1)CRIS-9 over-20
    2)Rio-10 under-50
    3)Skybook-12 under-100

    For fun, let's do a survey and see which of the above lines bettors would prefer to bet UNDER. (Please disregard the results of the game, which at the time of this posting is still in progress)Your rationale is welcome.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    522
    The closing line at Sky must have been 12 UN200. Maybe the software can't handle -200 on a total so they posted -100. Right before the game went off they had 12 UN185. I've never seen a higher moneyline on a total. This must be a world record.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Aug 1998
    Posts
    311
    LAST YEAR, SKYBOOK POSTED A CUB TOTAL 13OV20
    THE TOTAL CLOSED 13UN205. LOOKS LIKE THEY
    DONT BELIEVE IN MOVING OFF OF A TOTAL.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jul 1999
    Posts
    107
    BETTING UNDER AT THE POST IN THIS GAME IS A RECIPE FOR BETTORS DEATH.IF YOU WERENT THERE FOR THE WEDDING(WHEN THE TOTAL OPENED 12.5),THAN MY SUGGESTION IS SKIP THE FUNERAL(BY BETTING THE UNDER AT POST).BETTING OVER AT GAME TIME IS ANOTHER STORY.....THE BEST OVER # IS RIO'S USING THE BASIS THAT HALF A RUN IS WORTH SOMEWHERE AROUND 40 CENTS.I BELIEVE THE CARIBBEAN OPENED AT 13.5 ON THEIR OVERNITE LINE ACCORDING TO DON BESTS LINE HISTORY..WOW! IT IS NICE THAT WE AS BETTORS HAVE A CHOICE AS SOME BOOKS MOVE OFF OF #'S AND SOME DECIDE TO MOVE MONEY.DOES ANYBOBY HAVE A MATHEMATICAL ANSWER FOR WHAT A HALF A RUN IS WORTH EXACTLY?

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Apr 1999
    Posts
    1,596
    ShifttSheik, 12 under-100 really means under 200, or 2/1, just like 10 under-50 really means -150, or 3/2.

    ajax50, every half run in baseball is worth a different amount. Also, odd numbers are worth more than even ones, because 28% of all games are 1 run games, and these must land on odd numbers.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Aug 1998
    Posts
    311
    MY QUESTION IS WHAT DID CRIS OPEN THE
    TOTAL AT? THE CLOSE AT CRIS WAS ANYWHERE
    FROM A 1 1/2 TO 3 RUN SPREAD FROM OTHER
    PLACES THAT I LOOKED AT. EVEN THE STARDUST
    MOVED A WHOLE RUN OFF THEIR OPENER ON
    THE GAME.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jul 1999
    Posts
    107
    THEY OPENED 13.5 UNDER ON THE OVERNITE LINE. THIS IS FRON DON BESTS LINE HISTORY SCREEN

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Aug 1998
    Posts
    311
    I DIDNT THINK CRIS POSTED OVERNITE TOTALS
    ON CUB HOME GAMES. I SEEN A # EARLIER THIS
    AFTERNOON OF 11OV15.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Dec 1969
    Posts
    303
    I got to my screenn 5 minutes before gametime andn saw the obvious steam on the under. With only a minute or two get a play in chose to try Bowman's because they generallynshade the overs. I played 12u60. I much prefer to lay the juice and take a higher winning% with the good number. With more time I would have wentn for a middle heavy on the under. As for the choice of which number to lay, I doubt I will lay the 12u200, but with the choice I saw 12u60 was the play for me everytime, those are huge numbers to skip over for a baseballn total. By the way another monster day for the steam on Wed, the industry needs a good season in football.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Aug 1998
    Posts
    311
    TO ME, IT'S A NO-BRAINER------
    IF YOU FEEL CRIS HAD THE "RIGHT" # ON THE
    GAME AT 9OV-YOU GO INTO SKYBOOK AND PLAY THE
    12UN-YOUR BUYING 3 RUNS FOR $100

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Apr 1999
    Posts
    1,596
    According to my research, going under 10 under-50 offers the least value. Going under either 12 under-100 or under 9 over-20 offers virtually identical value.

    CRIS is a joke as the sportsbetting industry leader, because they don't have a clue about how to move their baseball totals. They have no idea what different numbers are worth and what a number should be moved to after a limit bet. But, here's a vote from me to keep them as the industry leader. I'm sure the Poker Players will also stuff the ballot box to keep CRIS as the industry leader.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Aug 1998
    Posts
    311
    RENO
    I THINK YOU MEAN 12UN200.
    JUST A SUGGESTION. ALTHOUGH YOU SAY YOU DONT
    CARE FOR COSTA RICA, I WOULD GO DOWN THERE
    TO THE CRIS OPERATION AND TELL RON THAT YOU
    CAN MAKE MUCH BETTER LINES AND TOTALS ON
    BASEBALL AND THAT YOU WOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE THE LINES MORE CORRECTLY WHEN TAKING A HIT.
    IT COULD BE QUITE LUCRATIVE.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Mar 1999
    Posts
    228
    I'll stuff that ballot too!!!!!!

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Aug 1998
    Posts
    311
    YOU GUYS ARE FORGETTING THAT THE LINES
    COME OUT OF A BUILDING ON 675 GRIER DRIVE
    IN LAS VEGAS.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Apr 1999
    Posts
    1,596
    OLD MAN, just as 9 over 20 means -120, 12 over 100 means -200. Skybook listed it that way on the Don Best screen.

    What makes you think I don't like CRIS? They are super reliable and I would have zero concern about my money even if I had a 100 dimes there. I like them because they are super solid and ignorant--exactly the way every player wants a bookie to be. But I would respect them more if they knew what they were doing. I prefer liking them to respecting them. It provides me with greater earning potential.

    At some point in time--hopefully later than sooner--someone who knows what they're doing is going to supplant CRIS as the industry leader. As I've stated before, the offshore books should form an association and pitch in the money to find a head Guru linesmaker who has a chance against the Billy Walters/Poker Players think tanks. They could then have seminars, and offshore bookies could learn how to really book. They would know what every number is worth, and their earning potential would increase. They would become real BMs instead of pseudo BMs.

    The books should keep track of the Poker Players plays and pay top people to reverse engineer them. Offshore books should also unite and hire a top lobbyist and legal team and send them to Washington. If need be, they could then grease a few palms to help get the Nazi-like U.S. government off their backs.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Jun 1999
    Posts
    3,461
    On your last point, about the lobbists, it's much easier said than done. For one, the old school books want nothing to do with it. They have operated illegally for years and years and just assume keep it that way.

    As for the rest, it's virtually impossible to get them to work together. They all go off in different directions. Rather than focus their efforts together, they are all sub divived, with some books using one firm, and others using another.

    Case in point, we (BETTORSWORLD) recently notified quite a few books of an effort orchestrated by someone with a battle in front of him......Not one of the books we notified got back to us with an answer one way or another, with the exception of Royal Sports......

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Mar 1999
    Posts
    228
    Reno,

    The Cris office is simply a gold mine. This office needs a Manager who doesn't run the book like a Vegas Casino. I was there in person for a couple of months, And was suprised at the job that was done at the front desk. I'm will only say that if I told Reno the mistakes that were made when I was there he would be amazed!!! I am no genius by any means, But I do study the business probably as much as anyone there is, and learned the business from people in Vegas and offshore.

    The only reason I went to Cris was the chance to run this office. This had no chance of happening as anyone who knows the office, knows only one person ran the office during this period. He did not want anyone close to his job, and for good reasons. So I left..

    I will say it hurt to witness the way this place was run. But it is not my office, so they can run it anyway they like. But I for one am glad they got rid of this person!! I think he is still with the office, but does not run the numbers anymore. This was a good move!! A real good move!!


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