Baylor
vs.
Oklahoma
Big 12
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/8/14
The saying goes, the later in the season you get, the bigger the Games are. Well, there may not be a bigger Game for either of these teams this year. Baylor is holding onto College Football Playoff hopes, while Oklahoma is trying just to salvage their season. The Sooners are at home and -5.5 point favorites at Sportsbook.ag and betonline.
Baylor dominated this matchup last year, but this year is an entirely different situation. Not to mention, the Bears were also 17-point favorites in that Game. The Sooners were one of the highest rated teams coming into the season, but have disappointed on both ends of the field. This Game is a chance to live up to those preseason expectations.
The Sooners already lost at home to Kansas State 31-30, which ultimately destroyed their Big 12 title hopes. They do have a nice win at West Virginia, but a win here could lead to five straight wins to close out the season. After this Game, Oklahoma has a favorable slate.
Baylor’s in the same boat without a true road Game remaining on their Schedule, although they have to host Kansas State in the season finale. The Bears lost in their last road Game at West Virginia, and their defense has not been able to hold better teams down.
When betting Oklahoma in this Game, it’d be wise to check the status of their leading receiver Sterling Shepard. He’s by far their top WR with 957 yards and five touchdowns and is questionable to play in this Game. Trevor Knight doesn’t have the greatest numbers (12 TDs, 8 INTs) and losing his top receiver won’t help. It is worth mentioning that Knight used his legs a lot last Game (146 yards, 3 TDs), and may be a sign of things to come in this offense. The Sooners do have some good news, in that RB Keith Ford returned to practice this week and should help in the backfield with Samaje Perine (767 yards, 11 TDs).
As mentioned before, Baylor’s defense is not stout by any means and Knight should be able to rack up points. It’s a question of what Bryce Petty can do against Oklahoma’s defense.
Petty has struggled this year in road Games, with only five TDs in three Conference road Games so far. He’s also completing less than 55% of his passes on the year, which is seven points below last year’s rate. A back problem that caused him to miss one Game earlier in the year could be the problem. Still, this is a dynamic offense that is coming off a 60-point outing (against weak Kansas). RB Shock Linwood and WR Antwan Goodley are the top playmakers, but Baylor has plenty of options in the passing and running Game to use at their disposal.
Neither defense has really showed up this year and points are expected here considering both teams just scored a combined 119 points last weekend.
The Bears are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 Games overall. The Sooners are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, but only 1-4 ATS in their last five home Games vs. a team with a winning road record. Baylor has covered in six straight Games between these teams.
This Game is likely to play out similar to the TCU and West Virginia Games for both squads. Both teams found the end zone and put points on the board in those matchups but ultimately it was the Oklahoma defense that played a bit better than Baylor’s in those Games and Oklahoma was on the road in both of those Games. This time of year we run Our model with different parameters. We’ll use full season data, last 4 Games and then last 7 Games to get a look at different time frames. The scores come up as follows, 44-30, 47-39, 46-31 all with Oklahoma on top. We’ll lay the number here. Oklahoma -5.5