Baylor
vs.
West Virginia
Big 12
College Football
Pick with Analysis
10/18/14
How does a team perform after coming back from 21 points in the Fourth quarter the previous week? We’re about to find out. However, it can’t be forgotten that West Virginia did something similar, coming back from 14 down in the Fourth quarter to beat Texas Tech, and that was on the road. This line has moved around some, but currently 5 dimes sportsbook has Baylor -8 with a total of 79.5.
The last two times, and only two times these teams have played, one team has scored 70 points. Baylor won 73-42 last year, while West Virginia won 70-63 two years ago in Morgantown.
2013 was a blowout from the start with Baylor compiling 476 yards on the ground. WVU struggled all day on the offensive end and two of their TDs were from the defensive side. That will probably change in this one.
The Mountaineers have had no problem scoring this season and that’s how they’ve been able to stay within distance in every Game this year. While still losing by double digits to Alabama and Oklahoma, they still kept things close. Their defense is a work in progress and could easily get eaten up by the Bears.
Baylor is one of the few remaining undefeated teams left in the country and they are coming off their first real test of the season in the 61-58 win over TCU. It was the first time their defense was really tested and they failed, granted TCU found other ways to Scoreas well. This goes without saying, but expect plenty of points in this one.
The difference for the Mountaineers this season is the improved play of quarterback Clint Trickett. He has taken this fast-paced offense and run with it, hitting 300 yards in every Game so far for 12 TDs and 4 INTs. His numbers are much better than a season ago with Kevin White (888 yards, 5 TDs) and Mario Alford (411 yards, 4 TDs) to thank for some of that, but also transfer running back Rushel Shell. Sure, Shell doesn’t have great numbers, but he’s been important for this offense and has hit 100 yards in two straight Games to go with six TDs over the season.
The problem for the Mountaineers is that they have yet to hold Baylor under 63 points in two meetings. Their defense is better than previous versions, but they will definitely still have problems. For one, Baylor’s run Game isn’t as good. Shock Linwood has a solid 627 yards and 8 TDs, but the Bears are only averaging 5.0 yards per carry as a team. Along with that, Bryce Petty isn’t having as much success completing only 56.7% of his passes leaving him at 8.62 yards per attempt, which is almost two full yards lower than last year. Granted, he still tossed for 510 yards and 6 TDs against a decent TCU defense last week.
West Virginia did beat Baylor in a similar situation in 2012 when they won at home as 11.5-point underdogs. However, can we expect them to Score70 points again? Trickett and company can score, but the WVU defense will need to do something this time around.
The Bears have all positive ATS records, notably 21-5 ATS in their last 26 Games on field turf and 5-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss. The Mountaineers are on the other spectrum at just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 overall and they haven’t covered in six straight Big 12 Games. They are surprisingly 1-5 ATS in their last six home Games as well.
With the various methods we use to come up with a number on a Game, including Our model, the majority have Baylor covering the -8, but just barely. But sometimes, especially when your number is that close to the line, you have to go by what you’ve learned from observing both teams. In this case, I don’t see how we could back Baylor, on the road, with a defense that just can’t stop anyone. West Virginia has put points on the board against better defenses this season than the one they will see on Saturday. Here at home in a big spot, we’re going to grab the points in a Game where an outright upset shouldn’t shock anyone. West Virginia +8