Central Florida
vs.
Missouri
College Football
Pick with Analysis
9/13/14
Two of 2013’s most surprising teams face off in UCF and Missouri. Both of them have lost a few big players and figure to have worse overall records, but are still relevant in their conferences. Missouri, now ranked No. 22 in the polls, are -9 point home favorites.
Missouri will host Central Florida on Saturday with kick off Scheduled for 12 noon est. The Tigers are a -9.5 point favorite at 5 dimes sportsbook. The two teams have met only once before and then was in 2012, with Mizu coming out on top 21-16.
After an iffy first Game for the Tigers, even though they won 38-18, they didn’t get a whole lot of respect and were only -3.5 point favorites against the MAC’s Toledo last Saturday. Mizzou came out and dominated the Game on both sides of the field, maybe more importantly scoring 49 points with Maty Mauk at the helm.
As for the Knights, they travelled to Ireland for their first Game two weekends ago and lost on a last-second field goal to Penn State. UCF is not a team to take lightly, even without Blake Bortles. They fought against the Nittany Lions and despite struggling on offense, kept it close and probably should have won in the end.
The main problem Central Florida had in their first Game was at quarterback where Pete DiNovo started and eventually got benched after doing nothing in the first half. He’s now third on the depth chart if that says anything. Justin Holman will get the start in this one and he finished 9-of-14 for 204 yards and one touchdown. The Knights had lots of trouble running in that Game, averaging less than one yard per carry and it’s hard to think they’ll be successful against a better defensive line in Missouri. The Tigers have a couple of the best defensive ends in the SEC.
UCF has built its Game on defense over the last couple years and stopping Maty Mauk and company will be a tough task, probably more so than their first Game with Christian Hackenberg. Mizzou has speed and power in the backfield with Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy. Those two dominated Toledo, but will have a tougher test here. Mauk also started to get going, despite a couple early interceptions he finished with 325 yards and five touchdowns. Mauk doesn’t have some of his big-name targets from last year, but guys have stepped up. Bud Sasser and Darius White have played well, along with the tight end Jimmie Hunt.
When Holman came in for UCF in that first Game, the entire offense looked completely new. Missouri has a better defense, but this still isn’t the same one from a year ago. If the Knights can get the ground attack going a bit, this should end up being a close Game. This will be Missouri’s toughest test yet.
With Holman starting in the second half against Penn State, the Knights put 21 points on the board after only three in the first half. It can’t be ignored that he only played one series in the first half. UCF is a team that has showed they can fight with bigger schools; Games against South Carolina and Louisville last year showed that, as well as the Penn State Game.
The Knights are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last six Games following an ATS loss. The Tigers are 3-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven non-Conference Games. The over/under trends for both teams are fairly split, but the over has hit in the team’s three combined Games so far this year.
We know UCF can play with the big boys. They have proven that time and time again over the last few years. Their defense is largely in tact from a year ago but their offense remains a HUGE concern here. Blake Bortles was a special QB. Can UCF stay within reach if this Game turns into a shootout?
We really need to see more from both sides. Until then, we’ll back UCF to keep doing what they have done best over the years which is rising up and playing the upper class tough. Until proven otherwis Central Florida +10