Georgia
vs.
Missouri
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/11/14
With the SEC West seemingly falling apart, this division could be won in this Game. South Carolina already has three Conference losses and won’t be winning the West. Missouri has still only played one SEC Game, but they did win at South Carolina, while Georgia’s only loss is at the Gamecocks. The Bulldogs get the edge in this one as -3 point road favorites at sportsbook.ag with a total of 62 and the betting trends show 61% of the action has come in on Georgia thus far.
Georgia hasn’t looked all that great this year, but still come into this Game with a 4-1 record. They escaped Tennessee 35-32 and took down Clemson 45-21 in the opening weekend. Their defense hasn’t shown a whole lot, while their QB play still can’t be trusted.
Missouri is kind of in the same boat as the last time they played at home, they lost to lowly Indiana which can’t really be explained. And then they came back against South Carolina after having a non-existent offense for most of the Game.
Still, both of these teams come into this Game ranked. Missouri pulled off a huge upset in this matchup last year on the road as they put 41 points on the Dawgs. Aaron Murray played that Game as well, so it was a surprising result.
With Hutson Mason now at quarterback, Georgia has one basic strategy for success: give the ball to Todd Gurley. The running back already has 773 yards and 8 TDs on the year while averaging 8.2 yards per carry. As long as he’s healthy, Gurley is one of the best in the nation, if not the best. Expect to see 25-plus touches from him here. Mizzou hasn’t been great against the run, so stopping Gurley will be an immediate problem. Mason still hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards, and don’t expect him to do that in this Game unless Missouri gets an early lead.
On the other side, quarterback Maty Mauk is erratic at times for the Tigers, but his numbers are still solid outside of his 56% completion percentage. He has 14 TDs and 4 INTs for the year. Georgia can be beat, but it will be important for Missouri to lean more on the running Game early. Russell Hansbrough (420 yards, 6 TDs) and Marcus Murphy (313 yards) are a great duo out of the backfield and are the main reason this team won last weekend.
Missouri’s defense is probably a little better than Georgia’s, and they still have a few guys that can get to the quarterback. That’s why this Game is going to be a battle on the ground. The Bulldogs have the edge with Gurley, but Mizzou’s duo can churn yards out as well.
The Bulldogs are only 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 Conference Games and only 1-6 ATS in their last seven road Games. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six SEC Games and 4-1 ATS in their last five following a bye week. In the two times these teams have met, the road team won and covered both Games.
Other than Clemson beating Georgia by 24, these two teams have played two teams with a pulse each. That would be South Carolina for both teams plus Indiana for Mizu and Tennessee for Georgia. All 4 of those Games were decided by 4 points or less. It’s hard to imagine this Game will be any different than those 4. Both of these teams will put points on the board and the Game will likely be decided late, by a big play or mistake either way. With that in mind, it’s tough to pass up the points with the home dog. Missouri +3