Kansas State
vs.
Oklahoma
Big 12
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/18/14
The road underdog has covered and won in the last two matchups between these teams. The loser of this Game will be in a hole in the Big 12. While Kansas State hasn’t lost a Conference Game yet this year, they still have road Games at TCU and Baylor. Oklahoma already has a Conference loss and two would likely keep them out of the hunt for a while. The Sooners are decent-sized -8 point home favorites at Sportsbook.ag, down from an opener of -10.
The Wildcats have been one of the few teams this year that are playing as expected. Their only loss was a close 20-14 Game against Auburn. They got by Iowa State and Texas Tech in Conference play just fine, although got a scare against the Cyclones. However, their upcoming road Schedule will determine a lot of things about this group that have remained undetermined. Can they pull an upset in any of these Games? It starts with Oklahoma.
The Sooners have fairly disappointed so far, from the fans perspective at least. This was a Top 5 team coming into the season, but they haven’t really impressed much. After dealing with non-Conference play easily, they battled at West Virginia, lost to TCU and probably were outplayed against Texas last Saturday in a 31-26 win. The offense still hasn’t figured things out and the defense isn’t that great.
Oklahoma dominated the ground in this Game last year in a 41-31 win. They outrushed KSU by a 301 to 24 margin. The fact that K-State actually stayed close is impressive. QB Jake Waters (348 yards, 3 TDs) and WR Tyler Lockett (12 receptions, 278 yards, 3 TDs) were the reasons for that. Even though Kansas State could not run the ball, that passing duo dominated.
This time around, the Wildcats will probably lean a little more on the running Game, especially from Waters. The quarterback leads the team with 320 rushing yards and 6 rushing TDs. Running back Charles Jones is close behind with 293 yards and 8 TDs. Waters has been good in his first season as the full-time starter, not having to share his role anymore. It’s going to fall on Waters to keep this Game close. From what we’ve seen so far, he should be able to do that.
Oklahoma has a bit of a different situation as their offense is having problems against better defenses. Trevor Knight’s passing numbers (55.1% completion, 6 TDs, 5 INTs) show that more than anything. The Sooners probably won’t be able to run as easily as they did last year in this matchup, which means Knight will have to take up a bigger role with WR Sterling Shepard (714 yards, 4 TDs) in the passing Game.
The KSU run defense already stopped Auburn to 2.8 yards per carry earlier in the year which is a pretty big feat. Running back Samaje Perine (568 yards, 9 TDs) will have a difficult task, although Keith Ford could make a return to the field in this Game.
The Wildcats are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road Games vs. a team with a winning home record and 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 overall vs. a team with a winning record. The Sooners are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall, although only 3-3 this season. The road team has covered in the last five meetings between these schools and the underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11.
We could make a case for both sides here. However, when looking at the Sooners last two Games, it becomes more difficult to make a case for the Sooners extending a margin here. Kansas State has the offense to go toe to toe here so we’ll grab the generous spot. Kansas State +8