Midd Tenn
vs.
Old Dominion
Friday Night
College Football
Pick with Analysis
9/26/14
Old Dominion will host Middle Tennessee State on Friday Night in a Game that will kick off at 8pm est. and can bee seen on FOX SPORTS 1. Betonline opened this Game with Midd Tenn favored by -1.5 however early bettors disagreed with that number and hammered it all the way up to Old Dominion -4.5. Then 5 dimes sportsbook opened the Game Old Domion -3.5 and it now sits -4 across the board as of Monday morning.
Every year there’s a special story in college football. A team that perhaps overachieves a bit and has bettors fall in love with them and go along for the ride. Old Dominion could be that team this year. They’re already half way to the 6 win mark which would qualify them for a bowl Game in this their first full FBS season and their Schedule is favorable.
As a handicapper, there are also teams that seem to stick in my side every year. Teams that for whatever reason, I can’t get a handle on. Old Dominion could very well be one of those teams. I went against them last week using Rice as a Key Release. Well, the Keys went 4-1 for the week and, well, Rice over Old Dominion was the lone loser.
My take on Old Dominion was/is that playing the full FBS slate will catch up to this team. Yes, they were 8-4 last year and returned pretty much their entire team from a year ago, but every time they stepped up in class last year they were hammered. Now, this year, they will no longer have teams like Citadel and Howard U on their dance card and instead will face a full C-USA Schedule. Case in point, they almost allowed Rice to come from behind last week and take their Game into OT.
Once teams have played 4 Games we can begin to take a look at yards per point numbers from a predictive angle. In this spot we see two teams with very similar numbers. Both have offensive numbers of around 14.5 while both also have defensive numbers of around 13.5. Those numbers simply mean these teams have decent offenses and BAD defenses 4 Games into the season.
We can’t ignore the emotional edge Old Dominion may have here. Any time an up and coming program gets a little television exposure, it’s a big deal. Now, if this Game were on ESPN, it would be a huge deal. FOX Sports 1 is hardly National TV. However, it is one of only two Games on Friday night and anything that goes on in this Game will be covered by Sports Center with Game highlights that otherwise might not have made the cut, had the Game been played on a Saturday. So, extra emphasis and a little emotional edge for Old Dominion for sure as this program looks for respect on the national level. It’s also their first C-USA home Game.
Lastly Our Score Prediction model. NOW is the time to hop on board if you haven’t already. Once 4 Games have been played, as is the case in this Game, Our model gets more and more accurate with each passing week. This week, we ran two sets of predictions. The first prediction uses data from ONLY this year and the 2nd prediction uses data from this year AND last year. Both predictions have Midd Tenn on top. Using last years data combined with this years, it’s a 50-32 romp. However, using only THIS season, it’s a close 39-34 Game with Midd Tenn still on top.
We would side with the Score Prediction that uses only this years data and the yards per point numbers would back that up. If we used the ypp numbers to make a line here, Old Dominion would be a 2 to 3 point home favorite before we took Schedule strength into consideration. Mid Tenn has played the more difficult Schedule which would bring that line down to pick em or so, maybe even the -1.5 betonline opened with.
This Game figures to play out just as the Score Prediction suggests. Plenty of points for both sides in a back and forth last team to have the ball wins type of a Game. With that in mind, we’ll go ahead and recommend taking the points here in a Game the dog can certainly win straight up. Midd Tenn +4