Mississippi State
vs.
Alabama
SEC
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/15/14
As usual, there is a huge SEC Game this weekend, and once again it involves Alabama. This time, the Crimson Tide take on the No. 1 team in the country in Mississippi State. With the Bulldogs coming in undefeated, it’s inevitable that this Game will be exciting. The Tide are a -7 point home favorite at 5 Dimes and betonline.
Maybe this line seems a bit high against the top team in the country, but this is Alabama we’re talking about. The Tide are coming off a huge overtime win at LSU, which could have easily gone the other way. Fortunately for their backers, the Tide still covered as -6.5 point favorites. With Four of their last five Games coming on the road, Bama returns home where they have been dominant. In their last home Game, they beat Texas A&M 59-0.
Even though Mississippi State is undefeated, they haven’t shown a whole lot in recent weeks. Before beating UT-Martin, they struggled against Arkansas winning 17-10, needing a 69-yard TD in the Fourth quarter to take it. They also weren’t entirely spectacular at Kentucky. After a hot start, the Bulldogs haven’t covered in three straight Games. Home wins over Texas A&M and Auburn also may not be as great as once thought.
This matchup was a battle last year with Alabama winning 20-7 on the road, dominating the ground Game. The Tide rushed for 196 yards compared to just 53 for Miss. State.
This is another Game that should be won in the trenches, which is where Mississippi State has stepped up this season. Most of that is due to the emergence of quarterback Dak Prescott (779 rushing yards, 11 TDs), but RB Josh Robinson has been a force as well (984 yards, 11 TDs). No one has been able to really get a ground Game going yet this season on Alabama, so that will be the first task at hand. To beat this Alabama squad, though, Prescott will need to be efficient in the passing Game. His numbers are solid on the year with 18 TDs and 7 INTs, but he still isn’t really known for his arm. We’ll find out just how good he is in this Game.
The Bulldogs defense has been key in all of their big wins, and will once again be an important piece here. Stopping the Bama run Game is the main issue, but Blake Sims has shown at times he can beat defenses with his arm.
Sims willed the Tide to a win against LSU and seems to improve every week. Stopping top wide receiver Amari Cooper is nearly impossible as he has 79 receptions, 1,215 yards and 10 TDs. No one else on the team has more than 26 catches. T.J. Yeldon sprained his ankle against LSU and that will be something to monitor through the week, but they have able guys in waiting like Derrick Henry.
It would be extremely impressive if Mississippi State pulled this Game out in Tuscaloosa, but it’s going to take a nearly perfect Game for that to happen.
The Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last five road Games. The Tide are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 Games overall and only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Games following an ATS win. The under is 12-2-1 in the last 15 meetings between these schools, while the home team has covered in Four straight.
There’s different ways to rate a defense. We all know the Alabama defense is among the best in the land. But the Miss State defense is underrated. If you look at yards given up, the Miss State “D” doesn’t look so hot. However, they keep opponents out of the endzone, which, at the end of the day, it what matters most.
The Miss State yards per point number on defense is 21.6 which is good for 4th best in the nation, ahead of Alabama at 7th, with a ypp of 19.7. In a HUGE spot like this, we prefer to side with the two big time SEC defenses and go UNDER the posted total of 53 as we see this one in the 40’s. UNDER 53