Nebraska
vs.
Michigan State
Big 10
College Football
Pick with Analysis
10/4/14
There’s a slight possibility that this matchup turns out to be the Big Ten Championship Game, that’s a main reason why it’s on at night on ABC. A lot of people are down on the Big Ten this season, but these two teams are trying to shake that image. Michigan State, playing at home, jumped up to as high as a -9 point favorite, but as of this writing was at -7 at 5 dimes sportsbook.
The Spartans have cruised against weak teams this year, which is actually something they didn’t do last year. They are now scoring 50.3 points per Game and are still a team known for its defense. That lone loss shines at Oregon, but it wasn’t an easy situation and they still were the better team for the first half.
Nebraska hasn’t faced a ranked team yet, that’s why they’re undefeated and that’s where the questions come in for them. How good is this team? Many people doubted them after barely beating McNeese State in their second Game, but after beating Miami (FL) and blowing out Illinois, the Cornhuskers are getting some respect.
Last year, in Lincoln, was the first time MSU beat Nebraska ever, 41-28. The Cornhuskers actually won the yardage battle, but five turnovers killed them and Tommy Armstrong Jr. was eventually removed from the Game. It’s a known fact that Nebraska can move the ball on this defense. They pose a similar threat as Oregon does and Armstrong has been hitting the big-play ball to Kenny Bell this season.
However, Nebraska’s defense still hasn’t been fully tested yet. They gave up 31 points to the Hurricanes and a freshman quarterback and that was their toughest test of the season.
Michigan State’s offense is looking like the best they’ve had since the days of Kirk Cousins and Le’Veon Bell. Connor Cook has been vital in that production, as he’s been removed from the second quarter in the last two Games because they were dominating. Cook is completing 69.2% of his passes on the year for 9 TDs and 2 INTs, but those interceptions came in the loss at Oregon. He’ll need to take care of the ball in Conference play.
Tony Lippett (421 yards, 6 TDs) is his favorite target, but if needed, Cook has plenty of other options. The running Game is still solid, even though Jeremy LAngford hasn’t broken out like last season yet, he still had 340 yards and 3 TDs. This is a balanced offense playing at home that should be a lot of problems for Nebraska.
On the other end, Nebraska cannot commit turnovers. Michigan State knows what Nebraska does and they’ll be trying to control the ground Game here. Ameer Abdullah (833 yards, 8 TDs) and Armstrong (420 yards, 2 TDs) have not been stopped yet and the Cornhuskers are averaging 6.9 yards per carry as a team.
The question comes in the passing Game where Armstrong struggles, completing 53.9% of his passes. It’s inevitable Michigan State forces this team to pass which happened last year. When put in a similar situation, Armstrong tends to struggle. He went 9-for-21 last year in this Game.
Spartan Stadium will be buzzing, it’s up to Abdullah and Armstrong to calm them down.
The Cornhuskers have covered in Four straight road Games and are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall. The Spartans have covered in five straight home Games and are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 overall. Last year was the first time MSU covered in this Game out of the last six meetings.
Bottom line here is when you have McNeese State, Florida Atlantic, Jacksonville St and Eastern Michigan among your early opponents, it’s difficult to learn much about these teams and the numbers are going to be skewed. That being said it would appear as though this Michigan State defense is not on par with recent editions while their offense may be better than in years past. All indicators point towards a back and forth Game with plenty of points. In that type of a setup, we’ll grab the points. Nebraska +7