Notre Dame
vs.
Arizona State
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/8/14
This may not be as big as some of the other inter-Conference Games going on this weekend, but a loss here for either team would dampen their College Football Playoff hopes, more so for Notre Dame. The line has moved back and forth since opening, but the Sun Devils are sitting as -2.5 point home favorites at 5 Dimes Sportsbook.
Both teams still have some tough Games remaining on the Schedule, but this will be the biggest for both as it is a matchup of two current AP Top 12 teams.
Notre Dame still has Louisville on the slate before travelling back out west to USC in the season finale. This is a team that was a penalty away from winning at Florida State, but also having trouble in beating North Carolina and Navy. Even the comeback win against Stanford doesn’t look all that great as the Cardinal now have Four losses. It is worth mentioning that this is Notre Dame’s first trip out far west of the season.
As for Arizona State, they still have the in-state battle with Arizona to close out the season. That Game never comes easy. The Sun Devils look to have a nice route to the Pac-12 Championship Game for a probable meeting with Oregon. Wins over USC, Stanford and Utah have been huge. However, ASU didn’t look all that lethal in the OT win against Utah last weekend.
ASU gets to face the best quarterback they’ve seen since probably Brett Hundley and UCLA when they lost 62-27. Their defense has struggled against better QBs and that will be the problem here.
QB Taylor Kelly also didn’t look that great for the second straight Game since returning from injury. In the last two Games, Kelly is 32-of-57 for 3 TDs and 2 INTs while running for only 62 yards on 29 carries. Kelly will need to return to form for ASU to beat Notre Dame. Some of those struggles have to do with his weapons as well. WR Jaelen Strong only has eight catches over the last two Games, while RB D.J. Foster has been mostly kept in check too and doesn’t have a TD.
The good news for ASU is that Notre Dame’s leading tackler and linebacker got hurt last weekend and will miss this Game. That should open things up a little more.
Despite the Irish defense falling apart somewhat lately, Everett Golson has in return picked up the slack. While he has thrown seven interceptions in the last five Games, he also has 15 passing TDs during that period, and had six total TDs (three rushing) last week. Golson has thrown for 300-plus yards in three straight weeks as well and the Sun Devils can be beat through the air.
This Game was extremely close last year with Notre Dame winning 37-34. ASU didn’t really get their ground Game going at all, forcing Kelly to pass for 362 yards. Golson is the better QB in this matchup, but the Notre Dame defense could decide the Game, one way or the other.
The Fighting Irish have covered in six straight vs. teams with a winning record and have covered in five straight against the Pac-12. The Sun Devils are only 1-4 ATS in their last five home Games and 1-4 ATS in their last five non-Conference Games.
Obviously, we can’t have a solid pick on every Game. In fact, often times, we can make a solid case for EITHER side. That being said, here’s Our take on this one……
Two of Our three sets of Score Predictions from Our model have Notre Dame winning straight up by narrow margins and total points scored in the high 50’s. The one prediction favoring Arizona State is the one using only the last 4 Games worth of data and that prediction has Arizona State by two TD’s. That can be a sign of one team hitting their stride while the other may have fallen off a bit.
If you look at the last few Games for each it would seem that each defense has gone in a different direction. For Arizona State, after giving up 62 and 34 to UCLA and USC, their defense has given up 10, 10 and 16. For Notre Dame, after holding their first 5 opponents to 17 points or less, they have given up 43, 31 and 39 points. That defensive performance for ND has got to cause some hesitation when considering backing them.
Bottom line? When taking the entire season for each team, we’d have to give some thought to Notre Dame at +3 or better as this seems like a back and forth type Game that will come down to the wire. However the most recent performance by each team is what keeps us off this Game as Arizona State is the team playing better RIGHT NOW.