Oregon
vs.
UCLA
PAC-12
College Football
Pick with Analysis
10/11/14
This Game was going to be huge. Two undefeated Pac-12 teams that could eventually face off in the conference’s title Game later down the road. Instead, they both lost… at home… as double-digit favorites. Maybe they were both looking ahead to this Game, but that’s a poor excuse. The Ducks are currently -3.5 point favorites at the worlds largest offshore sportsbook, sportsbook.ag.
Oregon could not get their offense going last week for the second straight season against Arizona and ended up losing 31-24. It was the second straight week they struggled with a Pac-12 opponent (38-31 vs. Washington State) and have only covered one Game this season.
UCLA is in a similar situation having covered only once all season. Their supposedly stout defense has not lived up to expectations and Brett Hundley has been too inconsistent to consider as a Heisman candidate right now. Struggling to Scoreagainst Utah and getting beat up on the ground in a 30-28 loss is not what fans wanted to see.
The Ducks have had this matchup wrapped up in recent history winning five straight. This was supposed to be UCLA’s year that they bucked the trend, but it doesn’t look like it right now. Oregon dominated this Game last year 42-14 and covered as 23.5-point favorites. It was actually tied at halftime but UCLA couldn’t keep up as Hundley only threw for 64 yards all Game.
With how UCLA’s defense has played this year combined with what they did last year against Oregon, it’s hard to see how the can contain Marcus Mariota and the running Game. The Ducks rushed for 325 yards last year.
Sure, maybe Oregon hasn’t been as good this year, but UCLA is going to have to step up big in this one. Royce Freeman and Thomas Tyner have been solid in the backfield, but this Oregon offense is all about Mariota. Even with the recent loss, he’s still near the top in the Heisman race. In addition to 215 yards and three TDs on the ground, Mariota has been passing the ball better this season, completing 71.1% of his passes for 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
If UCLA’s defense can’t stop an inexperienced Kendal Thompson at QB and an okay running Game at Utah, how will they stop Oregon?
This result could come down to what Hundley can do for the Bruins. He isn’t having a bad season, but he hasn’t been overly good. He has the ability to put points on the board like at Arizona State. Hundley is completing 72.8% of his passes for nine TDs and two INTs, but hasn’t been as great on the ground this season. Also his receivers may be lacking a bit from last year’s core and the running Game hasn’t been as dominant. Still, this offense should keep the Bruins in the Game here. Running back Paul Perkins (540 yards, 3 TDs) has been good and Hundley has the ability. It’s just a matter of him doing it or not.
The Ducks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 on grass, but only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Games overall and have not covered in six straight Conference Games. The Bruins don’t have many trends, but as stated before are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall. They also have a weird 5-17 ATS in their last 22 October Games. The Ducks have covered in Four of the last five meetings between these schools when playing in UCLA.
Gone are the days when even good teams couldn’t come close to Oregon on the scoreboard. Giving up 31 points in back to back PAC-12 Games with one of those being a loss king of hammers that point home. UCLA has put up 28+ points in every Game but one and against some decent defensive units. That tells us they can compete here and quite possibly even grab the win.
UCLA lost by 47, 18 and 28 their last 3 tries against Oregon. Generally, we’d never expect a team to be able to close a gap like that in one year. In other words, the talen doesn’t change that drastically from one year to the next and the Bruins have yet to prove they can come close to this Ducks team. But all of the numbers we rely on suggest this year will be different. With that in mind, UCLA +3.5