Washington State
vs.
Stanford
PAC 12
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/10/14
Stanford is just looking for a string of wins at this point after already losing their second Game last weekend against Notre Dame. Surprisingly, it was the Cardinal defense that disappointed in the end. They are currently -17.5 point favorites at home against gun-slinging Washington State at sportsbook.ag.
The Cardinal were hoping to be in College Football Playoff discussions this season, but a bad start has already removed those expectations. With road Games at Oregon and UCLA to come, it’s looking like the Pac-12 title could be out of reach too. Their best win of the season is a 20-13 road win at Washington and they sit right on the edge of the rankings at No. 25 in the AP Polls.
Washington State’s goal is just to get to a bowl Game again, but their loss over the weekend against California was not a good way to get to six wins. It was an incredible Game that ended 60-59 in favor of the Bears, and the Cougars were outscored by 12 in the Fourth quarter.
Everyone knows what Mike Leach teams are about: passing the ball a ton and they usually don’t have great defenses. against California, Connor Halliday racked up an incredible 734 passing yards (FBS record) and six touchdowns, yet they still lost due to a late missed field goal.
Both of these teams lost last Saturday on last minute plays. Stanford lost on a Game-losing TD pass on 4th down and Washington State missed a Game-winning field goal.
Stanford knows what Wazzu is going to do, and they controlled the Game last year. Stanford dominated the ground Game and kept Halliday in check, eventually forcing the QB to the bench. At one point, Stanford was up 48-3 on the road. Without a running Game, the Cardinal focused on the Cougars pass, and dominated from there. In 2012, the Cougars kept it close, but that Game had different QBs and an inexperienced Josh Nunes leading Stanford.
The problem with this year’s Stanford team is that they can’t run the ball as well so controlling the clock the same way may not be possible in this one. However, Kevin Hogan is improved and should be able to pass on this defense. Guys like all-around talent Ty Montogomery and WR Devon Cajuste could be in for big days.
It can’t be forgotten that Washington State has already fought with Oregon (38-31 loss) and beat Utah (28-27) on the road. They are an unpredictable team, but have covered the spread in the last three.
Can Stanford dominant Halliday again or will the senior build off last year’s embarrassing loss? So far, Halliday has been able to pass on every team in the Pac-12. And if Halliday can get going just a little bit, that 17 points won’t seem so big, especially if Stanford isn’t running well.
The Cougars have covered in five straight Pac-12 Games and are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road Games. The Cardinal are 7-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 5-2 ATS in their last seven home Games. In this meeting, the road team has covered five straight times.
No question Stanford is the better football team. They still field one of the top defensive units in the nation and could easily be 5-0, losing twice by just 3. They should win this Game with only the margin being in doubt. What you have to worry about if backing Stanford are two things. One, a major letdown after such a HUGE emotional Game at Notre Dame last week and two, the backdoor cover which is always a thread against a team like Washington State.
It’s only Monday morning when this is being written. We’ll wait a few days and see what the posted total is for this one as the UNDER may have some value. Check back later in the week.